Climate Change and Water Resources

herausgegeben von: Tamim Younos, Caitlin A. Grady

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Buchreihe : The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik"

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Über dieses Buch

This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Projecting Future Climate Scenarios for Canada Using General Circulation Models: An Integrated Review

Abstract

This chapter provides an overview of the General Circulation Models, Regional Models, and “downscaling” techniques which can improve model resolution at the local level. Authors review the available literature on projections of precipitation over the next 100 years for Canada. The future projections of Canada as a whole are considered, followed by a more detailed survey of precipitation projections including the possibility of dry spells. The stream-flow projections for the major river basins of Canada are also considered. Finally a detailed treatment of projections by regions, such as the North, southern Ontario, southern Quebec and New Brunswick, and western Canada, is presented. Authors conclude that: (a) from the literature reviewed, it appears that changes to the Canadian climate are projected to occur under virtually all scenarios and with all models and (b) the northern and western parts of Canada may be affected most severely by climate change. There are some obvious policy implications.

Mohammed H. I Dore, Peter Simcisko

Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite and GCM Rainfall Estimates for the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania

Abstract

Water resources and climate change studies in data-scarce regions of the world are increasingly employing satellite rainfall estimates (RFEs) and rainfall outputs from general circulations models (GCMs). The reliability of these data sources is seldom verified with observed data prior to application. This chapter outlines the application of simple evaluation techniques to assess the potential of RFE and GCMs outputs as a potential rainfall information sources in the Mara River basin (MRB), Kenya/Tanzania. Results of the assessment show that proper care is required in comparing/mixing of results from studies using different RFE in the MRB. In general, RFE and GCMs are promising sources of information, but refining the estimates with a much improved algorithms is essential.

Shimelis Behailu Dessu, Assefa M. Melesse

Projected Future Precipitation Scenarios for a Small Island State: The Case of Mauritius

Abstract

The economies of small island developing states (SIDS) can be sensitive to climate variability in the future. In this chapter, we use four of IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to produce precipitation projections for the next 90 years for the small island state of Mauritius. We focus our projections on the Vacoas-Phoenix region of this island because (a) this is the central region of the island, where all the major water reservoirs are located, (b) this region has normally higher precipitation and a higher variability of precipitation than the coastal regions, and (c) the rainfall in the mountainous part of this region feeds most of the rivers. Thus we expect that the groundwater recharge rate is probably more sensitive to precipitation in this region. Our results show that historically wetter months are likely to become wetter while drier months could become even drier than currently observed, but the net annual precipitation is likely to decline. This can have a significant impact on the growing tourist industry in the region which is likely to strain its water resources.

Mohammed H. I. Dore, Rajiv G. Singh

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in SemiArid Regions: Case Study of Aswan High Dam Reservoir

Abstract

This chapter presents an introduction to the global climate change (GCC) phenomenon. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different characteristics of international water resources were reviewed. The expected effects of climate change on Egyptian water resources, as examples of semiarid region water resources, were addressed. The southern part of Aswan High Dam Reservoir, Lake Nubia, was chosen to quantify the potential influence that GCC may have on its hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics. These impacts have been investigated using a proposed hydrodynamic and water quality model of Lake Nubia, for the twenty-first century – with two emission scenarios, including the average of 11 global climate models outputs. To estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model, a theoretical process algorithm was simplified, developed, and calibrated. The investigated hydrodynamic characteristics were water surface levels, evaporation water losses, and reservoir thermal structure. While the studied water quality parameters of the reservoir were pH, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, ortho-phosphate, nitrate–nitrite, ammonium, total dissolved solids, total suspended solids. In addition, a sensitivity analysis for the future climate estimates was conducted. The results show that there will be significant impacts of the climate change on the examined hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics of Lake Nubia.

Mohamed Elshemy

Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Crop Production in Egypt: An Overview

Abstract

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is very important in developing adaptation strategies and actions to reduce future climate change risks. In recent years, global climate change models have been used in Egypt to develop climate change scenarios. The objective of this chapter is to highlight the importance of using global climate change models to quantify the risk of climate change on wheat and maize production in Egypt. Field experiments data from case study sites located in four geographically different Egypt Governorates and CropSyst model output are incorporated in a climate change model to assess the effect of climate change scenarios and adaptation strategies on wheat and maize production in Egypt. Results show that the yield of both crops will be reduced under future climate change scenarios. The level of yield reduction depends on geographic location, soil type, and irrigation method. The model shows higher yield loss in the Middle of Egypt as compared to the North of Egypt. Furthermore, the model predicts higher yield losses for crops grown on sandy soils and under flood irrigation. It is concluded that it is necessary to improve adaptation to present day climate variability in order to reduce vulnerability to extreme events due to future climate change.

Samiha Ouda, Gamal El-Afandi, Tahany Noreldin

Grain Production Trends in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan in the Context of the Global Climate Variability and Change

Abstract

Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan are the three major grain producers in Central Eurasia. In the context of the current food-price crisis, these countries might be presented with a window of opportunity to reemerge as the major grain exporters if they succeed in increasing their productivity. Global grain production is highly sensitive to a combination of internal and external factors, such as institutional changes, land-use changes, climate variability, water resources, and global economic trends. Agroecological scenarios driven by climate models suggest that land suitability in this region is likely to change in future, due to impacts of climate change, such as CO₂ fertilization, changes in the growing season, temperature, precipitation, frequency, and timing of droughts and frosts. Grain production in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan grew steadily between 2002 and 2010 following a 10-year long depression caused by collapse of the USSR. However, in the summer of 2010 Russia and its neighbors experienced an unprecedented heat wave, accompanied by severe wild fires. As news of this disaster became known international grain prices increased dramatically. The future of grain production in this region will be determined by the interplay of climatic variability and multiple non-climatic factors and is likely to have significant impact on both global and regional food security over the coming decades.

Elena Lioubimtseva, Kirsten M. de Beurs, Geoffrey M. Henebry

Mitigating Climate Change in Urban Environments: Management of Water Supplies

Abstract

Energy and water are tightly connected but the possibility of mitigating climate change through water supply decisions has not been fully explored. The potential for improved efficiency is examined through analysis of the water supply systems in the five largest US cities: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia. The energy intensity of water supply in these cities ranges from 0.15 to 1.34 kWh/m³, largely due to pumping requirements. These cities also demonstrate opportunities to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from water supply through source water protection, selection of alternative water supplies, repair and replacement of infrastructure, water conservation, and use of alternative energy supplies. Finally, decentralization of water supplies may also provide opportunities for improved energy efficiency in water supply.

Sarah Lawson

The Impact of Urban Water Use on Energy Consumption and Climate Change: A Case Study of Household Water Use in Beijing

Abstract

Water use and energy consumption are intrinsically linked. Understanding the energy consumption linkages in urban water end use is useful in the integrated management of water and energy, amplifying the potential for energy saving by water conservation and thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions of cities. This reduction in energy and emissions in combination with other efforts can contribute to mitigating climate change. This chapter studies the conditions of energy consumption in household water use in urban Beijing by combining two methods: energy use measurements and random sampling social behavior survey. This research analyzes the characteristics of household water end use and estimates the energy intensity of household water use in summer and winter in Beijing. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: about 70% of the energy consumed in household water use lies in bathing, and the energy use related to washing varies remarkably in summer and winter; on average, the energy intensity of household water use in Beijing is 5.94 kWh/m³ in summer and 9.78 kWh/m³ in winter; in 2010, the total amount of energy use of household water use in Beijing is about 4.88 × 10⁹ kWh, which accounts for 0.9% of Beijing’s total energy consumption. The conclusions show a great potential for energy conservation in household water saving.

Yuan-sheng Chen, Lu Li, Lei Jiang, Caitlin Grady, Xin-hui Li

Reducing Carbon Footprint of Water Consumption: A Case Study of Water Conservation at a University Campus

Abstract

This chapter reports on a study to promote environmentally relevant behavior on a university campus. Ten residence halls at Virginia Tech were included in the study, and the project employed five different strategies, each with a different number of prompting strategies to determine which approach was most effective at influencing reductions in water use. Consumption reductions were observed in most of the residence halls participating in the study, but no one strategy was more effective than another. Even though reductions were not achieved in all residence halls, overall water consumption was reduced by 11.6%. Reducing the consumption of water also resulted in the reduction of energy used to treat and transport the water from the University’s water source – the New River. Therefore, the energy savings achieved resulted in a reduction of the University’s carbon footprint.

Tammy E. Parece, Lawrence Grossman, E. Scott Geller

Backmatter

Titel: Climate Change and Water Resources
herausgegeben von: Tamim Younos
Caitlin A. Grady
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-37586-6
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-37585-9
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37586-6