Skip to main content
Top

2013 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

12. Artificial Neural Network Based Methodologies for the Estimation of Wind Speed

Authors : Despina Deligiorgi, Kostas Philippopoulos, Georgios Kouroupetroglou

Published in: Assessment and Simulation Tools for Sustainable Energy Systems

Publisher: Springer London

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Recent advances in artificial neural networks (ANN) propose an alternative promising methodological approach to the problem of time series assessment as well as point spatial interpolation of irregularly and gridded data. In the field of wind power sustainable energy systems ANNs can be used as function approximators to estimate both the time and spatial wind speed distributions based on observational data. The first part of this work reviews the theoretical background, the mathematical formulation, the relative advantages, and limitations of ANN methodologies applicable to the field of wind speed time series and spatial modeling. The second part focuses on implementation issues and on evaluating the accuracy of the aforementioned methodologies using a set of metrics in the case of a specific region with complex terrain. A number of alternative feedforward ANN topologies have been applied in order to assess the spatial and time series wind speed prediction capabilities in different time scales. For the temporal forecasting of wind speed ANNs were trained using the Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation algorithm with the optimum architecture being the one that minimizes the Mean Absolute Error on the validation set. For the spatial estimation of wind speed the nonlinear Radial basis function Artificial Neural Networks are compared versus the linear Multiple Linear Regression scheme.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
go back to reference Beyer H, Degner T, Hausmann J, Hoffmann M, Rujan P (1994) Short term prediction of wind speed and power output of a wind turbine with neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 5th European wind energy association conference and exhibition. Thessaloniki, Greece, pp 349–352 Beyer H, Degner T, Hausmann J, Hoffmann M, Rujan P (1994) Short term prediction of wind speed and power output of a wind turbine with neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 5th European wind energy association conference and exhibition. Thessaloniki, Greece, pp 349–352
go back to reference Bishop CM (1995) Neural networks for pattern recognition. Oxford University Press, Cambridge Bishop CM (1995) Neural networks for pattern recognition. Oxford University Press, Cambridge
go back to reference Deligiorgi D, Philippopoulos K (2011) Spatial interpolation methodologies in urban air pollution modeling: application for the greater area of metropolitan Athens, Greece. In Nejadkoorki F (ed) Advanced air pollution, InTech Publishers, doi: 10.5772/17734 Deligiorgi D, Philippopoulos K (2011) Spatial interpolation methodologies in urban air pollution modeling: application for the greater area of metropolitan Athens, Greece. In Nejadkoorki F (ed) Advanced air pollution, InTech Publishers, doi: 10.​5772/​17734
go back to reference Deligiorgi D, Kolokotsa D, Papakostas T, Mantou E (2007) Analysis of the wind field at the broader area of Chania, Crete. In: Proceedings of the 3rd IASME/WSEAS International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development, pp 270–275 Deligiorgi D, Kolokotsa D, Papakostas T, Mantou E (2007) Analysis of the wind field at the broader area of Chania, Crete. In: Proceedings of the 3rd IASME/WSEAS International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development, pp 270–275
go back to reference Fausett LV (1994) Fundamentals neural networks: architecture, algorithms, and applications. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs Fausett LV (1994) Fundamentals neural networks: architecture, algorithms, and applications. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs
go back to reference Heaton J (2005) Introduction to neural networks with Java. Heaton Research Inc., Chesterfield Heaton J (2005) Introduction to neural networks with Java. Heaton Research Inc., Chesterfield
go back to reference Jain A, Mao J, Mohiuddin KM (1996) Artificial neural networks: a tutorial. Computer 29(3):31–44CrossRef Jain A, Mao J, Mohiuddin KM (1996) Artificial neural networks: a tutorial. Computer 29(3):31–44CrossRef
go back to reference Kariniotakis G, Stavrakakis GS, Nogaret EF (1996) Wind power forecasting using advanced neural network models. IEEE T Energ Conver 11(4):762–7. doi: 10.1109/60.556376 Kariniotakis G, Stavrakakis GS, Nogaret EF (1996) Wind power forecasting using advanced neural network models. IEEE T Energ Conver 11(4):762–7. doi: 10.​1109/​60.​556376
go back to reference Koletsis I, Lagouvardos K, Kotroni V, Bartzokas A (2009) The interaction of northern wind flow with the complex topography of Crete island-part 1: observational study. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1845–1855. doi: 10.5194/nhess-9-1845-2009 Koletsis I, Lagouvardos K, Kotroni V, Bartzokas A (2009) The interaction of northern wind flow with the complex topography of Crete island-part 1: observational study. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1845–1855. doi: 10.​5194/​nhess-9-1845-2009
go back to reference Koletsis I, Lagouvardos K, Kotroni V, Bartzokas A (2010) The interaction of northern wind flow with the complex topography of Crete island-part 2: numerical study. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1115–1127. doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-1115-2010 Koletsis I, Lagouvardos K, Kotroni V, Bartzokas A (2010) The interaction of northern wind flow with the complex topography of Crete island-part 2: numerical study. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1115–1127. doi: 10.​5194/​nhess-10-1115-2010
go back to reference Kotroni V, Lagouvardos K, Lalas D (2001) The effect of the island of Crete on the etesian winds over the Aegean sea. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127:1917–1937. doi: 10.1002/qj.49712757604 Kotroni V, Lagouvardos K, Lalas D (2001) The effect of the island of Crete on the etesian winds over the Aegean sea. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127:1917–1937. doi: 10.​1002/​qj.​49712757604
go back to reference Luo W, Taylor CM, Parker RS (2008) A comparison of spatial interpolation methods to estimate continuous wind speed surfaces using irregularly distributed data from England and Wales. Int J Climatol 28:947-959. doi: 10.1002/joc.1583 Luo W, Taylor CM, Parker RS (2008) A comparison of spatial interpolation methods to estimate continuous wind speed surfaces using irregularly distributed data from England and Wales. Int J Climatol 28:947-959. doi: 10.​1002/​joc.​1583
go back to reference Philippopoulos K, Deligiorgi D (2012) Application of artificial neural networks for the spatial estimation of wind speed in a coastal region with complex topography. Renew Energ 38(1):75–82CrossRef Philippopoulos K, Deligiorgi D (2012) Application of artificial neural networks for the spatial estimation of wind speed in a coastal region with complex topography. Renew Energ 38(1):75–82CrossRef
go back to reference Poggi P, Muselli M, Notton G, Cristofari C, Louche A (2003) Forecasting and simulating wind speed in Corsica by using an autoregressive model. Energ Convers Manage 44:3177–3196CrossRef Poggi P, Muselli M, Notton G, Cristofari C, Louche A (2003) Forecasting and simulating wind speed in Corsica by using an autoregressive model. Energ Convers Manage 44:3177–3196CrossRef
go back to reference Powell MJD (1987) Radial basis functions for multivariable interpolation: a review. In: Mason JC, Cox MG (eds) Algorithms for approximation. Clarendon Press, Oxford Powell MJD (1987) Radial basis functions for multivariable interpolation: a review. In: Mason JC, Cox MG (eds) Algorithms for approximation. Clarendon Press, Oxford
go back to reference Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ (1986) Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–536CrossRef Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ (1986) Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–536CrossRef
go back to reference Soman SS, Zareipour H, Malik O, Mandal P (2010) A review of wind power and wind speed forecasting methods with different time horizons. North American Power Symposium (NAPS), doi: 10.1109/NAPS.2010.5619586 Soman SS, Zareipour H, Malik O, Mandal P (2010) A review of wind power and wind speed forecasting methods with different time horizons. North American Power Symposium (NAPS), doi: 10.​1109/​NAPS.​2010.​5619586
go back to reference Velazquez S, Carta AJ, Matias JM (2011) Comparison between ANNs and linear MCP algorithms in the long-term estimation of the cost per kWh produced by a wind turbine at a candidate site: a case study in the Canary Islands. Appl Energ 88:3869–3881. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.007 CrossRef Velazquez S, Carta AJ, Matias JM (2011) Comparison between ANNs and linear MCP algorithms in the long-term estimation of the cost per kWh produced by a wind turbine at a candidate site: a case study in the Canary Islands. Appl Energ 88:3869–3881. doi:10.​1016/​j.​apenergy.​2011.​05.​007 CrossRef
go back to reference Willmott CJ, Matsuura K (2005) Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Clim Res 30:79–82. doi: 10.3354/cr030079 Willmott CJ, Matsuura K (2005) Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Clim Res 30:79–82. doi: 10.​3354/​cr030079
go back to reference Willmott CJ, Ackleson SG, Davis RE, Feddema JJ, Klink KM, Legates DR, O’Donnell J, Rowe CM (1985) Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models. J Geophys Res 90:8995–9005. doi: 10.1029/JC090iC05p08995 Willmott CJ, Ackleson SG, Davis RE, Feddema JJ, Klink KM, Legates DR, O’Donnell J, Rowe CM (1985) Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models. J Geophys Res 90:8995–9005. doi: 10.​1029/​JC090iC05p08995
go back to reference Yu H, Wilamowski BM (2011) Levenberg–Marquardt training. In: Wilamowski BM, Irwin JD (eds) Industrial electronics handbook, 2nd edn. CRC Press, Boca Raton Yu H, Wilamowski BM (2011) Levenberg–Marquardt training. In: Wilamowski BM, Irwin JD (eds) Industrial electronics handbook, 2nd edn. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Metadata
Title
Artificial Neural Network Based Methodologies for the Estimation of Wind Speed
Authors
Despina Deligiorgi
Kostas Philippopoulos
Georgios Kouroupetroglou
Copyright Year
2013
Publisher
Springer London
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-5143-2_12