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2015 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

20. Assessment of the Costs up to 2100 and Barriers to Adaptation

Authors : Claudia Kettner, Angela Köppl, Katharina Köberl

Published in: Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

A quantification of climate damages or the costs of inaction faces the inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios and socio-economic developments. For the appraisal of the long-run cost of inaction in COIN we therefore apply the Delphi technique until 2100 that offers a qualitative assessment by recognised experts rather than quantitative results. The Delphi results suggest pronounced increases in the damage costs in the second half of the twenty-first century. For half of the sectors addressed, there is unanimous consensus among experts that climate damage costs in 2070 will be higher than in 2050. A further increase in costs after 2070 is expected for the majority of sectors. Economic and social developments are considered the most important cost drivers in the long run. Despite this judgement, however, uncertainty of future social, economic and thus cost development is rated considerably high. Extreme events might be key determinants of the long-term cost of inaction.

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Footnotes
1
In the fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) four different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories are used. In the RCP8.5 scenario for 2100 a greenhouse gas concentration of approximately 1370 CO2-equiv. is assumed and radiative forcing values are assumed to increase to 8.5 W/m2.
 
2
The Stern Review (Stern 2006) analyses the costs of climate change in the absence of mitigation. Assuming a temperature increase of 5–6 °C, climate damage costs in the range of 5–10 % of global GDP are estimated.
 
3
The motivation for discounting is based on the assumption that future costs and benefits are valued less than current costs and benefits. Whether this assumption is valid on societal level is, however, disputed. Furthermore, in the case of discounting the choice of a particular discount rate has to be considered arbitrary as it lacks theoretical underpinning (see e.g. van den Bergh 2004).
 
4
Similar to the approach chosen in the COIN project for estimating the cost of inaction until 2050, PESETA furthermore applied a CGE model to assess the direct and indirect impacts of climate change throughout the economy.
 
5
I.e. for an average year in the period 2070–2100.
 
6
In the first Delphi round, only the categories ‘climate drivers’, ‘economic drivers’ and ‘social drivers’ were differentiated. Based on feedback by the experts, for the second round of the Delphi the categories ‘technological drivers’ and ‘policy drives’ have been added as these were considered key drivers in selected sectors.
 
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Metadata
Title
Assessment of the Costs up to 2100 and Barriers to Adaptation
Authors
Claudia Kettner
Angela Köppl
Katharina Köberl
Copyright Year
2015
Book
Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-12456-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-12457-5

Copyright Year: 2015

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12457-5_20

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