Skip to main content
Top

2015 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

19. Short-Term Forecasting of the Global Solar Irradiation Using the Fuzzy Modeling Technique: Case Study of Tamanrasset City, Algeria

Authors : Lyes Saad Saoud, Fayçal Rahmoune, Victor Tourtchine, Kamel Baddari

Published in: Progress in Clean Energy, Volume 1

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

In this chapter, the short-term forecasting of the global solar irradiation using the fuzzy modeling technique is proposed. The multi-input multi-output (MIMO) fuzzy models are used to predict the next 24 h ahead based on the mean values of the daily solar irradiation and the daily air temperature. The measured meteorological data of Tamanrasset City, Algeria (altitude, 1,362 m; latitude, 22°48 N; longitude, 05°26 E) is used, where the 2 years (2007–2008) are used for modeling and the year 2009 is used to validate the developed model. Several models are presented to test the feasibility and the performance of the fuzzy modeling technique for forecasting hourly solar irradiation in the MIMO strategy. Results obtained throughout this chapter show that the fuzzy modeling technique is suitable for a short-time forecasting of the solar irradiation.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
1.
go back to reference Mellit A, Pavan AM (2010) A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy. Sol Energy 84:807–821CrossRef Mellit A, Pavan AM (2010) A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy. Sol Energy 84:807–821CrossRef
2.
go back to reference Mellit A, Mekki H, Messai A, Kalogirou SA (2011) FPGA-based implementation of intelligent predictor for global solar irradiation, part I: theory and simulation. Expert Syst Appl 38:2668–2685CrossRef Mellit A, Mekki H, Messai A, Kalogirou SA (2011) FPGA-based implementation of intelligent predictor for global solar irradiation, part I: theory and simulation. Expert Syst Appl 38:2668–2685CrossRef
3.
go back to reference Solanki SK, Krivova NA, Wenzler T (2005) Irradiance models. Adv Space Res 35:376–383CrossRef Solanki SK, Krivova NA, Wenzler T (2005) Irradiance models. Adv Space Res 35:376–383CrossRef
4.
go back to reference Kalogirou S, Sencan A (2010) Artificial intelligence techniques in solar energy applications. In: Manyala R (ed) Solar collectors and panels, theory and applications. InTech, Rijeka Kalogirou S, Sencan A (2010) Artificial intelligence techniques in solar energy applications. In: Manyala R (ed) Solar collectors and panels, theory and applications. InTech, Rijeka
5.
go back to reference Winslow JC, Hunt ER Jr, Piper SC (2001) A globally applicable model of daily solar irradiance estimated from air temperature and precipitation data. Ecol Model 143:227–243CrossRef Winslow JC, Hunt ER Jr, Piper SC (2001) A globally applicable model of daily solar irradiance estimated from air temperature and precipitation data. Ecol Model 143:227–243CrossRef
6.
go back to reference El-Sebaii AA, Al-Hazmi FS, Al-Ghamdi AA, Yaghmour SJ (2010) Global, direct and diffuse solar radiation on horizontal and tilted surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Appl Energy 87:568–576CrossRef El-Sebaii AA, Al-Hazmi FS, Al-Ghamdi AA, Yaghmour SJ (2010) Global, direct and diffuse solar radiation on horizontal and tilted surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Appl Energy 87:568–576CrossRef
7.
go back to reference Mefti A, Bouroubi MY, Adane A (2003) Generation of hourly solar radiation for inclined surfaces using monthly mean sunshine duration in Algeria. Energy Convers Manag 44:3125–3141CrossRef Mefti A, Bouroubi MY, Adane A (2003) Generation of hourly solar radiation for inclined surfaces using monthly mean sunshine duration in Algeria. Energy Convers Manag 44:3125–3141CrossRef
8.
go back to reference Dazhi Y, Jirutitijaroen P, Walsh WM (2012) Hourly solar irradiance time series forecasting using cloud cover index. Sol Energy 86:3531–3543CrossRef Dazhi Y, Jirutitijaroen P, Walsh WM (2012) Hourly solar irradiance time series forecasting using cloud cover index. Sol Energy 86:3531–3543CrossRef
9.
go back to reference Wang F, Mi Z, Su S, Zhao H (2012) Short-term solar irradiance forecasting model based on artificial neural network using statistical feature parameters. Energies 5:1355–1370CrossRef Wang F, Mi Z, Su S, Zhao H (2012) Short-term solar irradiance forecasting model based on artificial neural network using statistical feature parameters. Energies 5:1355–1370CrossRef
10.
go back to reference Martin L, Zarzalejo LF, Polo J, Navarro A, Marchante R, Cony M (2010) Prediction of global solar irradiance based on time series analysis: application to solar thermal power plants energy production planning. Sol Energy 84:1772–1781CrossRef Martin L, Zarzalejo LF, Polo J, Navarro A, Marchante R, Cony M (2010) Prediction of global solar irradiance based on time series analysis: application to solar thermal power plants energy production planning. Sol Energy 84:1772–1781CrossRef
11.
go back to reference Gueymard CA (2009) Direct and indirect uncertainties in the prediction of tilted irradiance for solar engineering applications. Sol Energy 83:432–444CrossRef Gueymard CA (2009) Direct and indirect uncertainties in the prediction of tilted irradiance for solar engineering applications. Sol Energy 83:432–444CrossRef
12.
go back to reference Marquez R, Coimbra CFM (2011) Forecasting of global and direct solar irradiance using stochastic learning methods, ground experiments and the NWS database. Sol Energy 85:746–756CrossRef Marquez R, Coimbra CFM (2011) Forecasting of global and direct solar irradiance using stochastic learning methods, ground experiments and the NWS database. Sol Energy 85:746–756CrossRef
13.
go back to reference Notton G, Paoli C, Vasileva S, Nivet ML, Canaletti J-L, Cristofari C (2012) Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted planes from horizontal one using artificial neural networks. Energy 39(1):166–179CrossRef Notton G, Paoli C, Vasileva S, Nivet ML, Canaletti J-L, Cristofari C (2012) Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted planes from horizontal one using artificial neural networks. Energy 39(1):166–179CrossRef
14.
go back to reference Zervas PL, Sarimveis H, Palyvos JA, Markatos NCG (2008) Prediction of daily global solar irradiance on horizontal surfaces based on neural-network techniques. Renew Energy 33:1796–1803CrossRef Zervas PL, Sarimveis H, Palyvos JA, Markatos NCG (2008) Prediction of daily global solar irradiance on horizontal surfaces based on neural-network techniques. Renew Energy 33:1796–1803CrossRef
15.
go back to reference Paoli C, Voyant C, Muselli M, Nivet M-L (2010) Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks. Sol Energy 84(12):2146–2160CrossRef Paoli C, Voyant C, Muselli M, Nivet M-L (2010) Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks. Sol Energy 84(12):2146–2160CrossRef
16.
go back to reference Mellit A, Benghanem M, Kalogirou SA (2006) An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar radiation. Appl Energy 83:705–722CrossRef Mellit A, Benghanem M, Kalogirou SA (2006) An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar radiation. Appl Energy 83:705–722CrossRef
17.
go back to reference Chen C, Duan S, Cai T, Liu B (2011) Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather type classification using artificial neural network. Sol Energy 85:2856–2870CrossRef Chen C, Duan S, Cai T, Liu B (2011) Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather type classification using artificial neural network. Sol Energy 85:2856–2870CrossRef
18.
go back to reference Wang Z, Wang F, Su S (2011) Solar irradiance short-term prediction model based on BP neural network. In: ICSGCE 2011, Energy Procedia, no. 12, Chengdu, China, 27–30 Sept 2011, pp 488–494 Wang Z, Wang F, Su S (2011) Solar irradiance short-term prediction model based on BP neural network. In: ICSGCE 2011, Energy Procedia, no. 12, Chengdu, China, 27–30 Sept 2011, pp 488–494
19.
go back to reference Cao S, Cao J (2005) Forecast of solar irradiance using recurrent neural networks combined with wavelet analysis. Appl Therm Eng 25:161–172CrossRef Cao S, Cao J (2005) Forecast of solar irradiance using recurrent neural networks combined with wavelet analysis. Appl Therm Eng 25:161–172CrossRef
20.
go back to reference Saad Saoud L, Rahmoune F, Tourtchine V, Baddari K (2013) Complex-valued forecasting of global solar irradiance. J Renew Sust Energy 5(4):043124–043145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4818618CrossRef Saad Saoud L, Rahmoune F, Tourtchine V, Baddari K (2013) Complex-valued forecasting of global solar irradiance. J Renew Sust Energy 5(4):043124–043145. http://​dx.​doi.​org/​10.​1063/​1.​4818618CrossRef
21.
go back to reference Roffel B, Betlem B (2006) Process dynamics and control, modeling for control and prediction. Wiley, Chichester Roffel B, Betlem B (2006) Process dynamics and control, modeling for control and prediction. Wiley, Chichester
23.
go back to reference Zhang H, Liu D (2006) Fuzzy modeling and fuzzy control. Birkhauser, BostonMATH Zhang H, Liu D (2006) Fuzzy modeling and fuzzy control. Birkhauser, BostonMATH
24.
25.
go back to reference Gustafson DE, Kessel WC (1979) Fuzzy clustering with a fuzzy covariance matrix. In: Proceedings of IEEE CDC, San Diego, pp 761–766 Gustafson DE, Kessel WC (1979) Fuzzy clustering with a fuzzy covariance matrix. In: Proceedings of IEEE CDC, San Diego, pp 761–766
26.
go back to reference Karaboga D, Ozturk C (2010) Fuzzy clustering with artificial bee colony algorithm. Sci Res Essays 5(14):1899–1902 Karaboga D, Ozturk C (2010) Fuzzy clustering with artificial bee colony algorithm. Sci Res Essays 5(14):1899–1902
27.
go back to reference Babuska R, Roubos JA, Verbruggen HB (1998) Identification of MIMO systems by input-output TS fuzzy models. In: The IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence, vol 1, 4–9 May 1998, pp 657–662 Babuska R, Roubos JA, Verbruggen HB (1998) Identification of MIMO systems by input-output TS fuzzy models. In: The IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence, vol 1, 4–9 May 1998, pp 657–662
28.
go back to reference Saad Saoud L, Rahmoune F, Tourtchine V, Baddari K (2011) Modeling pH neutralization process using fuzzy dynamic neural units approaches. Int J Comput Appl 28(4):22–29 Saad Saoud L, Rahmoune F, Tourtchine V, Baddari K (2011) Modeling pH neutralization process using fuzzy dynamic neural units approaches. Int J Comput Appl 28(4):22–29
29.
go back to reference Saad Saoud L, Rahmoune F, Tourtchine V, Baddari K (2013) On the fuzzy modeling based estimation of maximum power generation from photovoltaic module. In: IEEE proceedings of the 3rd international conference on systems and control, Algiers, 29–31 Oct Saad Saoud L, Rahmoune F, Tourtchine V, Baddari K (2013) On the fuzzy modeling based estimation of maximum power generation from photovoltaic module. In: IEEE proceedings of the 3rd international conference on systems and control, Algiers, 29–31 Oct
30.
go back to reference Drossu R, Obradovic Z (1996) Rapid design of neural networks for time series prediction. IEEE Comput Sci Eng 3(2):78–89, ISSN: 1070-9924CrossRef Drossu R, Obradovic Z (1996) Rapid design of neural networks for time series prediction. IEEE Comput Sci Eng 3(2):78–89, ISSN: 1070-9924CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Short-Term Forecasting of the Global Solar Irradiation Using the Fuzzy Modeling Technique: Case Study of Tamanrasset City, Algeria
Authors
Lyes Saad Saoud
Fayçal Rahmoune
Victor Tourtchine
Kamel Baddari
Copyright Year
2015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16709-1_19