Skip to main content
Log in

Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian State Space Modeling Using Sampling Techniques

  • Published:
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this paper, the nonlinear non-Gaussian filters and smoothers are proposed using the joint density of the state variables, where the sampling techniques such as rejection sampling (RS), importance resampling (IR) and the Metropolis-Hastings independence sampling (MH) are utilized. Utilizing the random draws generated from the joint density, the density-based recursive algorithms on filtering and smoothing can be obtained. Furthermore, taking into account possibility of structural changes and outliers during the estimation period, the appropriately chosen sampling density is possibly introduced into the suggested nonlinear non-Gaussian filtering and smoothing procedures. Finally, through Monte Carlo simulation studies, the suggested filters and smoothers are examined.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bollerslev, T., Engle, R. F. and Nelson, D. B. (1994). ARCH models, Handbook of Econometrics, 4 (eds. R. F. Engle and D. L. McFadden), 2959-3038, Elsevier Science B. V., Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boswell, M. T., Gore, S. D., Patil, G. P. and Taillie, C. (1993). The art of computer generation of random variables, Handbook of Statist., 9 (ed. C. R. Rao), 661-721, Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carlin, B. P., Polson, N. G. and Stoffer, D. S. (1992). A Monte Carlo approach to nonnormal and nonlinear state space modeling, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 87, 493-500.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, C. K. and Kohn, R. (1994). On Gibbs sampling for state space models, Biometrika, 81, 541-553.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, C. K. and Kohn, R. (1996). Markov Chain Monte Carlo in conditionally Gaussian state space models, Biometrika, 83, 589-601.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chib, S. and Greenberg, E. (1995). Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Amer. Statist., 49, 327-335.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doucet, A., Godsill, S. and Andrieu, C., (2000). On sequential Monte Carlo sampling methods for Bayesian filtering, Statist. Comput., 10, 197-208.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of variance of U. K. inflation, Econometrica, 50, 987-1008.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geweke, J. (1996). Monte Carlo simulation and numerical integration, Handbook of Computational Economics, 1 (eds. H. M. Amman, D. A. Kendrick and J. Rust), 731-800, Elsevier Science B. V., Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geweke, J. and Tanizaki, H. (1999). On Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods for nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models, Comm. Statist. Simulation Comput., 28, 867-894.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghysels, E., Harvey, A. C. and Renault, E. (1996). Stochastic volatility, Handbook of Statist., 14 (eds. G. S. Maddala and C. R. Rao), 119-191, Elsevier Science B. V., Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon, N. J., Salmond, D. J. and Smith, A. F. M. (1993). Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation, IEE Proceedings-F, 140, 107-113.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey, A. C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hürzeler, M. and Künsch, H. R. (1998). Monte Carlo approximations for general state-space models, J. Comput. Graph. Statist., 7, 175-193.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitagawa, G. (1987). Non-Gaussian state-space modeling of nonstationary time series (with discussion), J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 82, 1032-1063.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitagawa, G. (1996). Monte Carlo filter and smoother for non-Gaussian nonlinear state-space models, J. Comput. Graph. Statist., 5, 1-25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitagawa, G. (1998). A self-organizing state-space model, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 93, 1203-1215.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitagawa, G. and Gersch, W. (1996). Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series, Lecture Notes in Statist., No.116, Springer, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kong, A., Liu, J. S. and Chen, R. (1994). Sequential imputations and Bayesian missing data problems, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 89, 278-288.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, J. S. (1996). Metropolized independent sampling with comparisons to rejection sampling and importance sampling, Statist. Comput., 6, 113-119.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, J. S. and Chen, R. (1995). Blind deconvolution via sequential imputations, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 90, 567-576.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, J. S. and Chen, R. (1998). Sequential Monte Carlo methods for dynamic systems, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 93, 1032-1044.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, J. S., Chen, R. and Wong, W. HG. (1998). Rejection control and sequential importance sampling, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 93, 1022-1031.

    Google Scholar 

  • O'Hagan, A. (1994). Kendall's advanced theory of statistics, 2B, Edward Arnold, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, A. F. M. and Gelfand, A. E. (1992). Bayesian statistics without tears: A sampling-resampling perspective, Amer. Statist., 46, 84-88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanizaki, H. (1996). Nonlinear Filters: Estimation and Applications (2nd, revised and enlarged ed.), Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanizaki, H. (1999). On the nonlinear and nonnormal filter using rejection sampling, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control, 44, 314-319.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanizaki, H. (2001). Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space modeling with Monte Carlo techniques: A survey and comparative study, Handbook of Statist (Stochastic Processes: Modeling and Simulation)., (eds. C. R. Rao and D. N. Shanbhag), Elsevier Science B. V., Amsterdam, forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanizaki, H. and Mariano, R. S. (1996). Nonlinear filters based on Taylor series expansions, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods, 25, 1261-1282.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanizaki, H. and Mariano, R. S. (1998). Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space modeling with Monte Carlo simulations, J. Econometrics., 83, 263-290.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

About this article

Cite this article

Tanizaki, H. Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian State Space Modeling Using Sampling Techniques. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 53, 63–81 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1017916420893

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1017916420893

Navigation