Abstract
This study uses a Delphi approach – a method which essentially canvasses the opinions of a panel of experts over successive rounds – to forecast the Chinese business environment in the next decade. A total of 61 issues covering economic, political–legal and socio–cultural factors are examined, focusing on their anticipated direction (and magnitude), as well as their importance. Overall, a very high level of consensus is revealed about how the Chinese business environment might look 10 years from now. In a number of fundamental respects it is expected to be markedly different from the present situation, but in some other respects remarkably similar.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Beinhocker, E.D. (2005) The Origin of Wealth. London: Random House.
Biggart, N.W. and Delbridge, R. (2004) Systems of exchange. Academy of Management Review 29 (1): 28–49.
Brooks, K.W. (1979) Delphi technique: Expanding applications. North Central Association Quarterly 53: 377–385.
Cavalli-Sforza, V. and Ortolano, L. (1984) Delphi forecasts of land use: Transportation interactions. Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE 110 (3): 324–339.
Chen, X.P. and Chen, C.C. (2004) On the intricacies of the Chinese guanxi: A process model of guanxi development. Asia Pacific Journal of Management 21 (3): 305–324.
Czinkota, M.R. and Ronkainen, I.A. (1997) International business and trade in the next decade: Report from a Delphi study. Journal of International Business Studies 28 (4): 827–844.
Czinkota, M.R. and Ronkainen, I.A. (2005) A forecast of globalization, international business and trade: Report from a Delphi study. Journal of World Business 40: 111–123.
Delbecq, A., Van de Ven, A. and Gustafson, D.H. (1975) Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes. Scott, Foresman: Glenview, IL.
Gilboy, G.T. (2004) The myth behind China's miracle. Foreign Affairs 83 (4): 33–48.
Goldfisher, K. (1992) Modified Delphi: A concept for new product forecasting. Journal of Business Forecasting 11 (4): 10–11.
Greif, A. (2006) Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Guthrie, D. (2006) China and Globalization. New York: Routledge.
Hoffmann, W.J. (2008) China into the future. In: W.J. Hoffmann and M.J. Enright (eds.) China into the Future: Making Sense of the World's Most Dynamic Economy. Singapore: John Wiley and Sons (Asia), pp. 1–21.
Hoffmann, W.J. and Enright, M.J. (eds.) (2008) China into the Future: Making Sense of the World's Most Dynamic Economy. Singapore: John Wiley and Sons (Asia).
Inglehart, R. (2000) Culture and democracy. In: L.E. Harrison and S.P. Huntington (eds.) Culture Matters. New York: Basic Books, pp. 80–97.
Jiang, F. and Stening, B.W. (2006) The Chinese Business Environment: An Annotated Bibliography. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Johnson, J.L. (1976) A ten-year Delphi forecast in the electronics industry. Industrial Marketing Management 5: 45–55.
Jolson, M.A. and Rossow, G.L. (1971) The Delphi process in marketing decision-making. Journal of Marketing Research 9 (8): 443–448.
Landes, D. (1998) The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. New York: Norton.
Leung, K. and Bond, M.H. (2004) Social axioms: A model for social beliefs in multi-cultural perspective. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 36: 119–197.
MOFCOM. (2007) 2006 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Beijing: Ministry of Commerce.
Moore, C.M. (1987) Group Techniques for Idea Building. Newbury Park: Sage.
Murray, J.W. and Hammons, J.O. (1995) Delphi: A versatile methodology for conducting qualitative research. Review of Higher Education 18: 423–436.
Nolan, P. (2004) Transforming China: Globalization, Transition and Development. London: Anthem Press.
North, D.C. (2005) Understanding the Process of Economic Change. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). (2005) China. Paris: OECD.
Ono, R. and Wedemeyer, D.J. (1994) Assessing the validity of the Delphi technique. Futures 26 (3): 289–304.
Phillips, R. (1999) New applications for the Delphi technique. In: R. Phillips (ed.) The Annual, 2000. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass/Pfeiffer, pp. 191–196.
Redding, G. (1990) The Spirit of Chinese Capitalism. New York: Walter de Gruyter.
Redding, G. (2005) The thick description and comparison of societal systems of capitalism. Journal of International Business Studies 36: 123–155.
Redding, G. and Witt, M.A. (2007) The Future of Chinese Capitalism: Choices and Chances. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rowe, G. and Wright, G. (1999) The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting 15: 351–381.
Sachsenmaier, D., Riedel, J. and Eisenstadt, S. (eds.) (2002) Reflections on Multiple Modernities. Leiden: Brill.
Sniezek, J.A. (1989) An examination of group process in judgmental forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 5 (2): 171–178.
Zhang, M.Y. and Stening, B.W. (2010) China 2.0: The Transformation of an Emerging Superpower…And the New Opportunities. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the inputs of the Delphi panelists, without which the study could not have been conducted. They are all very busy people whose expertise is both rare and extremely valuable. We wish to pay tribute to their generosity in engaging in the time-consuming process involved in this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
As regular readers will already know, ABM is more than a journal of research into business and management issues; it is also a journal that offers new perspectives on business management in general, in line with our underlying commitment to a more ethical and sustained business culture. From time to time, therefore, we publish ‘perspective papers’, which offer critical and innovative appraisals of the way contemporary business and management is conducted and researched. These papers are intended to stimulate thought and discussion and a constant review of the context in which we operate. Naturally, we welcome feedback from readers on these issues, which at a later date may appear on our website.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Elliott, G., Jiang, F., Redding, G. et al. The Chinese business environment in the next decade: Report from a Delphi study. Asian Bus Manage 9, 459–480 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1057/abm.2010.25
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/abm.2010.25