100 % Renewable Fuel in Germany 2050: A Quantitative Scenario Analysis

In a quantitative scenario analysis ways, in which the consumption of fossil fuel in the German transport sector (about 700 TWh p.a.) can be replaced by renewable fuel until 2050, are discussed. Especially the impact of policies on the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable fuels is investigated. A linear optimization model is developed with the objective to minimize yearly total cost of fuel, taking into account total demand and capacities of various fuels, e.g. production capacities. The implementation of the model is done in Excel and the optimization is automated using VBA. For the creation of scenarios various parameters are modified: energy taxes exemptions, penalties on the emission of carbon-dioxide-equivalents and major restrictions for renewable fuels. Parameter dependent results show optimized fuel combinations for every year until 2050. Results from scenario analyses show further that it is possible to increase the share of renewable fuel sources in total consumption to 100 % until 2050. This can be achieved by a declining population, by constant mobility preferences and by more efficient vehicles. Furthermore, it is necessary to support the substitution of fossil fuels with bio-fuels, hydrogen and renewable electricity by using policies for a sustainable change. Simulations show that long-term energy taxes exemptions with long-term tax on emissions of carbon-dioxide-equivalents lead to significantly better results.