Skip to main content

2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

10. A Joint Model for Electricity Spot Prices and Wind Penetration with Dependence in the Extremes

verfasst von : Thomas Deschatre, Almut E. D. Veraart

Erschienen in: Renewable Energy: Forecasting and Risk Management

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This article analyses the dependence between electricity spot prices and the wind penetration index in the European energy market. The wind penetration index is given by the ratio of the wind energy production divided by the total electricity production. We find that the wind penetration has an impact on the intensity of the spike occurrences in the electricity prices, and we formulate a joint model for electricity prices and wind penetration and calibrate it to recent data. We then use the new joint model in an application where we assess the impact of the modelling assumptions on the potential income of an electricity distributor who buys electricity from a wind farm operator.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Y. Aït-Sahalia, J. Jacod, High-Frequency Financial Econometrics (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2014) Y. Aït-Sahalia, J. Jacod, High-Frequency Financial Econometrics (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2014)
3.
Zurück zum Zitat O.E. Barndorff-Nielsen, N. Shephard, M. Winkel, Limit theorems for multipower variation in the presence of jumps. Stoch. Process. Appl. 116(5), 796–806 (2006)MathSciNetCrossRef O.E. Barndorff-Nielsen, N. Shephard, M. Winkel, Limit theorems for multipower variation in the presence of jumps. Stoch. Process. Appl. 116(5), 796–806 (2006)MathSciNetCrossRef
4.
Zurück zum Zitat F.E. Benth, J.Š. Benth, Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives, vol. 17 (World Scientific, Singapore, 2012) F.E. Benth, J.Š. Benth, Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives, vol. 17 (World Scientific, Singapore, 2012)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat T. Deschatre, Dependence modeling between continuous time stochastic processes: an application to electricity markets modeling and risk management, Ph.D. Thesis, Université Paris-Dauphine, 2017 T. Deschatre, Dependence modeling between continuous time stochastic processes: an application to electricity markets modeling and risk management, Ph.D. Thesis, Université Paris-Dauphine, 2017
6.
7.
Zurück zum Zitat S. Forrest, I. MacGill, Assessing the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices and generator dispatch in the Australian national electricity market. Energy Policy 59, 120–132 (2013)CrossRef S. Forrest, I. MacGill, Assessing the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices and generator dispatch in the Australian national electricity market. Energy Policy 59, 120–132 (2013)CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat A. Goldenshluger, O. Lepski, Bandwidth selection in kernel density estimation: oracle inequalities and adaptive minimax optimality. Ann. Stat. 1608–1632 (2011)MathSciNetCrossRef A. Goldenshluger, O. Lepski, Bandwidth selection in kernel density estimation: oracle inequalities and adaptive minimax optimality. Ann. Stat. 1608–1632 (2011)MathSciNetCrossRef
9.
Zurück zum Zitat N. Haldrup, M.Ø. Nielsen, A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices. J. Econom. 135(1), 349–376 (2006)MathSciNetCrossRef N. Haldrup, M.Ø. Nielsen, A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices. J. Econom. 135(1), 349–376 (2006)MathSciNetCrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat R. Huisman, C. Huurman, R. Mahieu, Hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. Energy Econ. 29(2), 240–248 (2007)CrossRef R. Huisman, C. Huurman, R. Mahieu, Hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. Energy Econ. 29(2), 240–248 (2007)CrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat T. Jónsson, P. Pinson, H. Madsen, On the market impact of wind energy forecasts. Energy Econ. 32(2), 313–320 (2010)CrossRef T. Jónsson, P. Pinson, H. Madsen, On the market impact of wind energy forecasts. Energy Econ. 32(2), 313–320 (2010)CrossRef
12.
Zurück zum Zitat T. Jónsson, P. Pinson, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, T.S. Nielsen, Forecasting electricity spot prices accounting for wind power predictions. IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy 4(1), 210–218 (2013)CrossRef T. Jónsson, P. Pinson, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, T.S. Nielsen, Forecasting electricity spot prices accounting for wind power predictions. IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy 4(1), 210–218 (2013)CrossRef
13.
Zurück zum Zitat J.C. Ketterer, The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany. Energy Econ. 44, 270–280 (2014)CrossRef J.C. Ketterer, The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany. Energy Econ. 44, 270–280 (2014)CrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat C. Klüppelberg, T. Meyer-Brandis, A. Schmidt, Electricity spot price modelling with a view towards extreme spike risk. Quant. Financ. 10, 963–974 (2010)MathSciNetCrossRef C. Klüppelberg, T. Meyer-Brandis, A. Schmidt, Electricity spot price modelling with a view towards extreme spike risk. Quant. Financ. 10, 963–974 (2010)MathSciNetCrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat C. Lacour, P. Massart, V. Rivoirard, Estimator selection: a new method with applications to kernel density estimation. Sankhya A 1–38 (2016) C. Lacour, P. Massart, V. Rivoirard, Estimator selection: a new method with applications to kernel density estimation. Sankhya A 1–38 (2016)
18.
Zurück zum Zitat A.W. Van der Vaart, Asymptotic Statistics, vol. 3 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998) A.W. Van der Vaart, Asymptotic Statistics, vol. 3 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998)
19.
Zurück zum Zitat A.E.D. Veraart, Inference for the jump part of quadratic variation of Itô semimartingales. Econom. Theory 26(2), 331–368 (2010)MathSciNetCrossRef A.E.D. Veraart, Inference for the jump part of quadratic variation of Itô semimartingales. Econom. Theory 26(2), 331–368 (2010)MathSciNetCrossRef
20.
Zurück zum Zitat A.E.D. Veraart, Modelling the impact of wind power production on electricity prices by regime-switching Lévy semistationary processes, in Stochastics of Environmental and Financial Economics ed. by F.E. Benth, G. Di Nunno (Springer, Berlin, 2016), pp. 321–340 A.E.D. Veraart, Modelling the impact of wind power production on electricity prices by regime-switching Lévy semistationary processes, in Stochastics of Environmental and Financial Economics ed. by F.E. Benth, G. Di Nunno (Springer, Berlin, 2016), pp. 321–340
21.
Zurück zum Zitat A.E.D. Veraart, L.A.M. Veraart, Modelling electricity day-ahead prices by multivariate Lévy semi-stationary processes, in Wolfgang Pauli Proceedings ed. by F.E. Benth, V. Kholodnyi, P. Laurence (Springer, Berlin, 2014), pp. 157–188 A.E.D. Veraart, L.A.M. Veraart, Modelling electricity day-ahead prices by multivariate Lévy semi-stationary processes, in Wolfgang Pauli Proceedings ed. by F.E. Benth, V. Kholodnyi, P. Laurence (Springer, Berlin, 2014), pp. 157–188
Metadaten
Titel
A Joint Model for Electricity Spot Prices and Wind Penetration with Dependence in the Extremes
verfasst von
Thomas Deschatre
Almut E. D. Veraart
Copyright-Jahr
2018
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99052-1_10