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Erschienen in: Transportation 5/2014

01.09.2014

A long panel survey to elicit variation in preferences and attitudes in the choice of electric vehicles

verfasst von: Anders F. Jensen, Elisabetta Cherchi, Juan de Dios Ortúzar

Erschienen in: Transportation | Ausgabe 5/2014

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Abstract

This paper describes the methodology we set up to gather appropriate data to study the impact of real life experience with electric vehicles (EVs) over a relatively long period of time on individual preferences and attitudes. We used stated choices (SC) to elicit individual preferences because EVs and their associated charging infrastructure are not yet fully integrated onto the market. Furthermore, to measure the extent to which the experience of using an EV may affect individual preferences and attitudes, we set up a “long panel” survey, where data was gathered before and after individuals experienced an EV in real life during a three-month period. We also measured attitudinal effects (AE) that might affect the choice of an EV by individuals. To our knowledge, this represents the first example of a “long panel” SC/AE and the first attempt to measure the formation of preferences and attitudes for this emerging product. Our results show that preferences and attitudes are indeed affected by real life experience. In the SC experiment, the respondents only chose the EV half as often as compared to the situation where they had not yet tried it. Furthermore, we measured a change in attitude for statements regarding the use of EVs. On the whole, respondents got a more positive view of the EV driving performance and this change is significantly greater for women than for men. However, respondents expressed more concern about being able to maintain current mobility with an EV. The data gathered in this survey should also serve to analyse the changes generated by direct experience with EVs, and eventually to formulate and estimate advanced discrete choice models that allow insights into factors relevant for improved understanding of market behaviour.

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Fußnoten
1
Many new vehicle technologies use electric motors together with different types of propulsion (i.e. hydrogen, gasoline/battery hybrid). In this study we focus on pure battery electrically-propelled vehicles.
 
2
Panels can be classified into two categories: “long survey panels” and “short survey panels”. The latter consider multi-day data where repeated measurements on the same sample of units are gathered over a “continuous” period of time (e.g. seven or more successive days), but the survey is not repeated in subsequent years as in the former case.
 
3
We refer to the project called “Test-en-elbil” run by the Danish EV provider Clever, which was financed by several partners including municipalities, governmental authorities and energy providers.
 
4
We tested different time frames finding that if people were given too short a time to answer the survey a lower response rate was obtained. We believe this problem might have occurred in the first wave (although we did not test it); in subsequent waves of panels motivation usually decreases and this could have been especially the case here because individuals had already received the EV. Finally, another reason for attrition in our case could be a failure in sending reminders for the second wave.
 
5
In other choice experiments car classes have been varied across choice tasks (i.e. Brownstone et al. 2000; Potoglou and Kanaroglou 2007). In our survey we chose to elicit the purchase needs (and hence the car class) beforehand. We framed the experiment around the most probable future car purchase in the household, so respondents were not asked to consider a random car purchase.
 
7
However, EVs are not exempt from the 25 % VAT.
 
8
For fossil fuels there is a direct connection between carbon dioxide emissions and fuel consumption and, thus, driving costs. We considered fuel costs and carbon dioxide emissions as independent attributes to identify the pure effect of each of them.
 
9
The carbon dioxide emissions for the current scenario ranged from 50 g/km for the smallest car class to 70 g/km for the largest car class.
 
10
EV models introduced in the late 1980’s used Lead-Acid technology which could often only be used for 300 cycles/15,000 km. Modern Li-Ion batteries can be used for about 3000 cycles/1,000,000 km (http://​www.​delk.​dk).
 
11
We assumed charging poles with 3 phase 16 amp.
 
12
This could lead to an incorrect sign for the marginal utility. A test showed that there was little difference in efficiency for a specific design when evaluated with normally or uniformly distributed Bayesian parameters.
 
13
Actually, this is called heterogeneous pivot design (ChoiceMetrics 2011). The pivoting feature can be used to calculate the values pivoted around the reference values for each attribute automatically. However, it is necessary to include the reference alternative in the scenarios, which was not desired in this study.
 
14
At the beginning of the project, there were no “factory built” EVs available on the market. Hence, rebuilt Citroën C1 cars, where the combustion engine was replaced with an electric engine, were used. Unfortunately these cars had many problems.
 
15
There is a hefty debate about the driving range stated for EVs. The manufacturers use an EU standard calculation of the possible driving range, but often the actual driving distance is much lower due, for example, to driving at high speeds or in cold weather.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
A long panel survey to elicit variation in preferences and attitudes in the choice of electric vehicles
verfasst von
Anders F. Jensen
Elisabetta Cherchi
Juan de Dios Ortúzar
Publikationsdatum
01.09.2014
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Transportation / Ausgabe 5/2014
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Elektronische ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-014-9517-6

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