A multi-stage learning-based fuzzy cognitive maps for tobacco use

Fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is an important approach for modeling the behavior of dynamic systems. FCM’s ability to represent casual relationships between the concepts (factors, attributes, etc.) has attracted the interest of researchers from different disciplines. The construction process of FCMs is mostly initialized with expert knowledge because FCMs can conveniently incorporate available information and expertise in the determination of vital parameters and relations of the system. However, their higher dependence on expert knowledge may significantly influence the reliability of the model due to the increase in subjectivity. In order to avoid weaknesses depending on expert knowledge, learning algorithms that search for the appropriate relationships between the concepts have been used with FCM studies. In this paper, a FCM analysis was performed for tobacco use to understand the cause–effect relationships between demographic characteristics of people (such as gender, age range, and residence type) and likelihood to tobacco use. In order to reduce the impact of external interventions (from experts), a multi-stage learning procedure was applied by integrating two different learning algorithms (nonlinear Hebbian learning algorithm and extended Great Deluge algorithm). The results showed that the multi-stage learning procedure increased the accuracy of the model and provided more reliable maps for the studied system. They also proved that the multi-stage learning procedures can help to reduce the dependency to expert knowledge and improve the robustness of the study.