Skip to main content

2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

A New Customer Churn Prediction Approach Based on Soft Set Ensemble Pruning

verfasst von : Mohd Khalid Awang, Mokhairi Makhtar, Mohd Nordin Abd Rahman, Mustafa Mat Deris

Erschienen in: Recent Advances on Soft Computing and Data Mining

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Accurate customer churn prediction is vital in any business organization due to higher cost involved in getting new customers. In telecommunication businesses, companies have used various types of single classifiers to classify customer churn, but the classification accuracy is still relatively low. However, the classification accuracy can be improved by integrating decisions from multiple classifiers through an ensemble method. Despite having the ability of producing the highest classification accuracy, ensemble methods have suffered significantly from their large volume of base classifiers. Thus, in the previous work, we have proposed a novel soft set based method to prune the classifiers from heterogeneous ensemble committee and select the best subsets of the component classifiers prior to the combination process. The results of the previous study demonstrated the ability of our proposed soft set ensemble pruning to reduce a substantial number of classifiers and at the same time producing the highest prediction accuracy. In this paper, we extended our soft set ensemble pruning on the customer churn dataset. The results of this work have proven that our proposed method of soft set ensemble pruning is able to overcome one of the drawbacks of ensemble method. Ensemble pruning based on soft set theory not only reduce the number of members of the ensemble, but able to increase the prediction accuracy of customer churn.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Freund, Y., Schapire, R.E.: Experiments with a new boosting algorithm. In: ICML, vol. 96, pp. 148–156 (1996) Freund, Y., Schapire, R.E.: Experiments with a new boosting algorithm. In: ICML, vol. 96, pp. 148–156 (1996)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Wang, H., Fan, W., Yu, P.S., Han, J.: Mining concept-drifting data streams using ensemble classifiers. In: Proceedings of the Ninth ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, ACM, pp. 226–235, August 2003 Wang, H., Fan, W., Yu, P.S., Han, J.: Mining concept-drifting data streams using ensemble classifiers. In: Proceedings of the Ninth ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, ACM, pp. 226–235, August 2003
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Rodriguez, J.J., Kuncheva, L.I., Alonso, C.J.: Rotation forest: a new classifier ensemble method. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 28(10), 1619–1630 (2006)CrossRef Rodriguez, J.J., Kuncheva, L.I., Alonso, C.J.: Rotation forest: a new classifier ensemble method. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 28(10), 1619–1630 (2006)CrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Caruana, R., Niculescu-Mizil, A., Crew, G., Ksikes, A: Ensemble selection from libraries of models. In: Proceedings of the Twenty-First International Conference on Machine Learning, p. 18. ACM, July 2004 Caruana, R., Niculescu-Mizil, A., Crew, G., Ksikes, A: Ensemble selection from libraries of models. In: Proceedings of the Twenty-First International Conference on Machine Learning, p. 18. ACM, July 2004
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Tsoumakas, G., Partalas, I., Vlahavas, I.: A taxonomy and short review of ensemble selection. In: Workshop on Supervised and Unsupervised Ensemble Methods and Their Applications, July 2008 Tsoumakas, G., Partalas, I., Vlahavas, I.: A taxonomy and short review of ensemble selection. In: Workshop on Supervised and Unsupervised Ensemble Methods and Their Applications, July 2008
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Partalas, I., Tsoumakas, G., Katakis, I., Vlahavas, I.: Ensemble pruning using reinforcement learning. In: Antoniou, G., Potamias, G., Spyropoulos, C., Plexousakis, D. (eds.) SETN 2006. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 3955, pp. 301–310. Springer, Heidelberg (2006). doi:10.1007/11752912_31CrossRef Partalas, I., Tsoumakas, G., Katakis, I., Vlahavas, I.: Ensemble pruning using reinforcement learning. In: Antoniou, G., Potamias, G., Spyropoulos, C., Plexousakis, D. (eds.) SETN 2006. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 3955, pp. 301–310. Springer, Heidelberg (2006). doi:10.​1007/​11752912_​31CrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Martinez-Muoz, G., Hernández-Lobato, D., Suarez, A.: An analysis of ensemble pruning techniques based on ordered aggregation. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 31(2), 245–259 (2009)CrossRef Martinez-Muoz, G., Hernández-Lobato, D., Suarez, A.: An analysis of ensemble pruning techniques based on ordered aggregation. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 31(2), 245–259 (2009)CrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Caruana, R., Munson, A., Niculescu-Mizil, A.: Getting the most out of ensemble selection. In: Sixth International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2006, pp. 828–833. IEEE (2006) Caruana, R., Munson, A., Niculescu-Mizil, A.: Getting the most out of ensemble selection. In: Sixth International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2006, pp. 828–833. IEEE (2006)
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Cruz, R.M., Sabourin, R., Cavalcanti, G.D., Ren, T.I.: META-DES: a dynamic ensemble selection framework using meta-learning. Pattern Recogn. 48(5), 1925–1935 (2015)CrossRef Cruz, R.M., Sabourin, R., Cavalcanti, G.D., Ren, T.I.: META-DES: a dynamic ensemble selection framework using meta-learning. Pattern Recogn. 48(5), 1925–1935 (2015)CrossRef
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Taghavi, Z.S., Sajedi, H.: Ensemble pruning based on oblivious Chained Tabu Searches. Int. J. Hybrid Intell. Syst. 12(3), 131–143 (2016) Taghavi, Z.S., Sajedi, H.: Ensemble pruning based on oblivious Chained Tabu Searches. Int. J. Hybrid Intell. Syst. 12(3), 131–143 (2016)
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Fürnkranz, J., Widmer, G.: Incremental reduced error pruning. In: Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Machine Learning (ML-1994), pp. 70–77 (1994) Fürnkranz, J., Widmer, G.: Incremental reduced error pruning. In: Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Machine Learning (ML-1994), pp. 70–77 (1994)
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Margineantu, D.D., Dietterich, T.G.: Pruning adaptive boosting. In: ICML, vol. 97, pp. 211–218, July 1997 Margineantu, D.D., Dietterich, T.G.: Pruning adaptive boosting. In: ICML, vol. 97, pp. 211–218, July 1997
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Schapire, R.E., Singer, Y.: BoosTexter: a boosting-based system for text categorization. Mach. Learn. 39(2), 135–168 (2000)CrossRefMATH Schapire, R.E., Singer, Y.: BoosTexter: a boosting-based system for text categorization. Mach. Learn. 39(2), 135–168 (2000)CrossRefMATH
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Strehl, A., Ghosh, J.: Cluster ensembles – a knowledge reuse framework for combining multiple partitions. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3, 583–617 (2003)MathSciNetMATH Strehl, A., Ghosh, J.: Cluster ensembles – a knowledge reuse framework for combining multiple partitions. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3, 583–617 (2003)MathSciNetMATH
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Topchy, A., Jain, A.K., Punch, W.: Clustering ensembles: models of consensus and weak partitions. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 27(12), 1866–1881 (2005)CrossRef Topchy, A., Jain, A.K., Punch, W.: Clustering ensembles: models of consensus and weak partitions. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 27(12), 1866–1881 (2005)CrossRef
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Bakker, B., Heskes, T.: Clustering ensembles of neural network models. Neural Netw. 16(2), 261–269 (2005)CrossRef Bakker, B., Heskes, T.: Clustering ensembles of neural network models. Neural Netw. 16(2), 261–269 (2005)CrossRef
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhang, Y., Burer, S., Street, W.N.: Ensemble pruning via semi-definite programming. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 7, 1315–1338 (2005)MathSciNetMATH Zhang, Y., Burer, S., Street, W.N.: Ensemble pruning via semi-definite programming. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 7, 1315–1338 (2005)MathSciNetMATH
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Chen, H., Tino, P., Yao, X.: A probabilistic ensemble pruning algorithm. In: Sixth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, ICDM Workshops 2006, pp. 878–882. IEEE (2006) Chen, H., Tino, P., Yao, X.: A probabilistic ensemble pruning algorithm. In: Sixth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, ICDM Workshops 2006, pp. 878–882. IEEE (2006)
22.
23.
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Herawan, T., Deris, M.M.: A direct proof of every rough set is a soft set. In: 2009 Third Asia International Conference on Modelling and Simulation, pp. 119–124. IEEE, May 2009 Herawan, T., Deris, M.M.: A direct proof of every rough set is a soft set. In: 2009 Third Asia International Conference on Modelling and Simulation, pp. 119–124. IEEE, May 2009
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Skowron, A., Rauszer, C.: The discernibility matrices and functions in information systems. In: Słowiński, R. (ed.) Intelligent Decision Support, pp. 331–362. Springer, Netherlands (1992)CrossRef Skowron, A., Rauszer, C.: The discernibility matrices and functions in information systems. In: Słowiński, R. (ed.) Intelligent Decision Support, pp. 331–362. Springer, Netherlands (1992)CrossRef
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Kong, Z., Gao, L., Wang, L., Li, S.: The normal parameter reduction of soft sets and its algorithm. Comput. Math Appl. 56(12), 3029–3037 (2008)MathSciNetMATH Kong, Z., Gao, L., Wang, L., Li, S.: The normal parameter reduction of soft sets and its algorithm. Comput. Math Appl. 56(12), 3029–3037 (2008)MathSciNetMATH
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Hall, M., Frank, E., Holmes, G., Pfahringer, B., Reutemann, P., Witten, I.H.: The WEKA data mining software: an update. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 11(1), 10–18 (2009)CrossRef Hall, M., Frank, E., Holmes, G., Pfahringer, B., Reutemann, P., Witten, I.H.: The WEKA data mining software: an update. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 11(1), 10–18 (2009)CrossRef
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Christopher, M., Peck, H.: Marketing Logistics. Routledge, London (2012)CrossRef Christopher, M., Peck, H.: Marketing Logistics. Routledge, London (2012)CrossRef
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Ismail, M.R., Awang, M.K., Rahman, M.N.A., Makhtar, M.: A multi-layer perceptron approach for customer churn prediction. Int. J. Multimed. Ubiquit. Eng. 10(7), 213–222 (2015)CrossRef Ismail, M.R., Awang, M.K., Rahman, M.N.A., Makhtar, M.: A multi-layer perceptron approach for customer churn prediction. Int. J. Multimed. Ubiquit. Eng. 10(7), 213–222 (2015)CrossRef
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Awang, M.K., Rahman, M.N.A., Ismail, M.R.: Data mining for churn prediction: multiple regressions approach. In: Kim, T.-h., Ma, J., Fang, W.-c., Zhang, Y., Cuzzocrea, A. (eds.) FGIT 2012. CCIS, vol. 352, pp. 318–324. Springer, Heidelberg (2012). doi:10.1007/978-3-642-35603-2_47CrossRef Awang, M.K., Rahman, M.N.A., Ismail, M.R.: Data mining for churn prediction: multiple regressions approach. In: Kim, T.-h., Ma, J., Fang, W.-c., Zhang, Y., Cuzzocrea, A. (eds.) FGIT 2012. CCIS, vol. 352, pp. 318–324. Springer, Heidelberg (2012). doi:10.​1007/​978-3-642-35603-2_​47CrossRef
31.
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Awang, M.K., Makhtar, M., Rahman, M.N.A., Deris, M.M.: A new soft set based pruning algorithm for ensemble method. J. Theor. Appl. Inf. Technol. 88(3), 384--391 (2016) Awang, M.K., Makhtar, M., Rahman, M.N.A., Deris, M.M.: A new soft set based pruning algorithm for ensemble method. J. Theor. Appl. Inf. Technol. 88(3), 384--391 (2016)
Metadaten
Titel
A New Customer Churn Prediction Approach Based on Soft Set Ensemble Pruning
verfasst von
Mohd Khalid Awang
Mokhairi Makhtar
Mohd Nordin Abd Rahman
Mustafa Mat Deris
Copyright-Jahr
2017
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51281-5_43