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In November 2016 the Indian government announced a policy of demonetising the ₹500 and ₹1000 currency notes in an attempt to move the economy into using cashless modes for financial transactions. Given that India is a cash intensive economy the effects of demonetisation were immediate and far reaching. This chapter examines the likely impact of demonetisation on such a cash intensive economy using an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach. The goals were to understand pathways to transition to a cashless money use behavior and to estimate a population’s inconvenience in accessing cash modes, given geographic features, limited resource and readiness towards change. Our model is built on empirical evidence from a survey which studied the systemic and behavioral drivers of money use behavior post-demonetisation. The model is able to illustrate outcomes depicting the pattern of transition to digital payments. We present a framework for optimal remonetisation considering infrastructure density and inconvenience experienced during transition by the population. Simulation analysis found other interesting insights such as service infrastructure acting as a catalyst to noncash transition.
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- A Partially Grounded Agent Based Model on Demonetisation Outcomes in India
- Chapter 12
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