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22.03.2018 | Original Article

A screening procedure to measure the effect of uncertainty in air emission estimates

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Alessandra La Notte, Stefania Tonin, Silvio Nocera
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Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s11027-018-9798-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
While undertaking this research Alessandra La Notte was a research fellow at IUAV. Alessandra La Notte’s current position is at the European Commission Joint Research Centre - Directorate D: Sustainable Resources.


Emission inventories are compiled at regional level. When these sources of information are used, uncertainty of emission estimates is never considered. In this paper, we propose an initial screening to identify whether and to what extent uncertainty related to emission inventories affects quantitative analysis used to set strategies and implement actions at regional and subregional levels. We consider the regional air emission inventory of the Piedmont region in Italy. For each pollutant and each sector, uncertainty is calculated by adapting the insurance-based method. A hybrid accounting matrix is built, three environmental themes are analyzed, and a shift-share analysis is undertaken considering jointly air emission estimates and the number of employees at regional and provincial levels. The same procedure is undertaken for data processed with and without uncertainty. Based on the obtained outcomes, few comments are drawn in order to reach some general conclusion to feed discussion on the importance of integrating and prioritizing uncertainty into decision-making at subnational level.

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