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Since 2003, the national PREV’AIR system (www.prevair.org) has been delivering daily air quality forecasts of atmospheric pollutants (O3, NO2, PM10, PM2.5) over Europe and France. Those products are based on chemistry-transport modeling and in particular on the outputs from CHIMERE model. Analysed air quality maps of the previous day are also produced by mixing observed and simulated data through a geostatistical approach.
More recently a methodology has been developed to improve the accuracy of CHIMERE forecasts. It consists of two main stages.
In a preliminary stage, statistical short-term forecasting models are built and validated for each French and European rural or (sub)urban background monitoring site. The response variables are the O3 daily maximum, NO2 daily maximum and PM10 daily average concentrations of the current and the next 2 days. This part is based on the developments carried out and tested within CITEAIRII project (www.citeair.eu).
In the operational stage, the statistical models identified as reliable enough are applied with a daily frequency to predict concentrations at the corresponding monitoring sites. Locally forecast concentrations are then combined with CHIMERE forecast concentration fields according to the same geostatistical approach as aforementioned. This has been tested so far for O3 and PM10. Validation against independent data shows a significant improvement of the forecasts compared with raw CHIMERE outputs.
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Malherbe L, Ung A, Colette A, Debry E (2012) Formulation and quantification of uncertainties in air quality mapping. ETC/ACM Technical Paper Sept 2011. Report available at http://acm.eionet.europa.eu/reports/ETCACM_TP_2011_9_AQmapping_uncertainties
Malherbe L, Songeur CH, Honoré C, Ung A, Meleux F (2010) Forecasting urban air quality over cities by statistical adaptation of deterministic chemistry transport model outputs. In: 31st NATO/SPS international technical meeting on air pollution modelling and its application, 27 Sept–01 Oct 2010, Torino, Italy
Honoré C, Ung A, Corbet L, Malherbe L (2011) Good practice guide on air quality forecasting. CITEAIRII publications, European Union, Interreg IVC. http://www.citeair.eu
Rouïl L (ed) (2011) Evaluation report of the air quality assessments in Europe for 2007, MACC report D-R-EVA_2.2, Report available at http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/documents/deliverables/r-eva/
Joly M, Peuch V-H (2012) Objective classification of air quality monitoring sites over Europe. Atmos Environ 47:111–123 CrossRef
- A Statistical Approach to Improve Air Quality Forecasts in the PREV’AIR System
- Springer Netherlands
- Chapter 35
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