2007 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
A Stochastic Model for Prevention and Control of HIV/AIDS Transmission Dynamics
verfasst von : Min Xu, Yongsheng Ding, Liangjian Hu
Erschienen in: Life System Modeling and Simulation
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
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In this paper, we first present a stochastic model of the proportion of the population infected with HIV against total population, and prove the existence and uniquess of its solution. Through computer simulation, we forecast the proportion of the population infected with HIV against the total population in the transmission course of AIDS in China in next 20 years. Especially, we study the control index of the transmission rate
β
to obtain its effect on the epidemic trend of AIDS when it fluctuates. As such, we present a strategy to adjust
β
to reach a certain control aim based on the analysis of the mean value and variance of the proportion.