A strategic approach to the development of sustainable rural tourism using the A’WOT–TOWS method: an example from the hydroelectric power plant (HPP) in Turkey

In recent years, activities related to rural tourism have increased in many countries and rural tourism types have become an alternative to mass tourism. Busby and Rendle (2000), Šťastná et al. (2020), Higgins-Desbiolles (2020). The preference of visitors for destinations that are distant from major cities and have low tourist density is regarded as an opportunity for the economic development of certain rural areas. Rural tourism adopts an innovative and sustainable approach while aiming to promote rural development by preserving the local fabric and identity. Akgün et al. (2015), Šťastná et al. (2020). While the concept of sustainability emerges in various social dimensions, their shared characteristic is the focus on humanity’s future and the aim to preserve the resources of the respective domain (Özen and Varolgüneş 2018). Sustainable tourism encompasses social responsibility, economic efficiency, and ecological sensitivity at every stage (Kürüm Varolgüneş 2021). Tourism serves as a significant driver of economic growth and diversification (Long et al. 2019). Consequently, the development of alternative forms of tourism, particularly in rural areas, holds great importance for national economies in terms of generating income and employment opportunities (Sharpley 2002; Mugauina et al. 2020). In recent times, an increasing number of scientists have been interested in rural heritage and communities. Gullino and Larcher (2013), Gao and Wu (2017), Zou et al. (2014). In this context, various terms such as soft tourism, ecotourism, nature tourism, and rural tourism are used (Beyhan and Ünügür 2010). These types of tourism that generate interest are evolving towards a transformation that emphasizes the preservation of ecological balance, consideration for future generations, promotion of social values, and facilitation of regional income growth. This study focuses on nature tourism as a key component of sustainable rural tourism. In recent years, efforts to expand nature tourism destinations have led to the exploration of new areas, including hydroelectric power plant regions. However, the literature on the potential of hydroelectric power plants as tourism destinations remains sparse. While existing research emphasizes the environmental impacts of hydroelectric plants (Sæþórsdóttir and Hall 2019), less attention has been given to their dual role as both energy producers and potential tourism hubs. This gap in research highlights the need to evaluate the challenges and opportunities presented by hydroelectric power plants in the context of rural tourism development. Specifically, it is essential to assess the potential benefits and drawbacks of developing these areas for tourism, considering their unique combination of natural resources, cultural heritage, and the potential for ecological and landscape preservation. As such, this study seeks to address these gaps by exploring the implications of hydroelectric power plants on local tourism development, with particular attention to the balance between sustainable energy production and tourism promotion (Van Veelen and Haggett 2017).

Hydropower is a renewable energy source and a significant driving force for climate change and land transformations. Efforts should be made towards the transformation into low-carbon hydropower plants to facilitate the development of nature tourism in these areas (Nadaï and van Der Horst 2010). It is assumed by many researchers that hydroelectric power plants reduce the attractiveness of nature-based tourism destinations. Therefore, the proportion of researchers opposing the development of energy plants is high (Sæþórsdóttir and Hall 2018). The development of a new tourism destination requires the construction of buildings and artificial environments. Considering this, if tourism development is not carefully managed, it can systematically deplete the natural resources they depend on Öztüren et al. (2021). When introducing a new area to tourism, the carrying capacity should be determined first. Overuse can cause damage to environmentally sensitive areas, including deforestation, air and water pollution, and can threaten the sustainability of tourism (Burak et al. 2004; de Oliveira 2003).

In recent years, nature-based tourism has been significantly preferred in Turkey, and the majority of visitors indicate that the country’s unspoiled landscapes and wilderness are the main attractions. The Keban hydroelectric power plant has had a significant impact on a large region in eastern Turkey. The reservoirs and thermal resources formed in these areas are integral parts of the wilderness (Özen and Varolgüneş, 2018). However, considering the upcoming developments and their potential impacts on the tourism sector, it is necessary to better understand tourists’ perceptions regarding the effects of power plants on the landscape.

In this context, the present study examines approaches related to land use in the development of a hydroelectric power plant and proposes recommendations for the creation of a tourism destination. The potential impacts of the constructed facilities on tourism and recreational areas in the region, how and why the region is utilized for tourism activities, and the satisfaction of visitors and local residents have been determined through surveys and interviews. Additionally, scenarios have been developed to enhance adaptation and conservation strategies for minimizing damage in the areas where hydroelectric power plants are installed. The study utilizes a hybrid approach combining A’WOT and TOWS methodologies.

SWOT, an abbreviation for strength, weakness, opportunity and threat (Pesonen et al. 2001), is an analytical method proposed in the early 1980s by Wyrick, a professor of management at the University of San Francisco (Long et al. 2022). SWOT is a list of statements or factors that explain the current and future trends of both indoor and outdoor environments in general (Varolgüneş and Canan 2018). The expressions regarding individual factors are the defnition of subjective opinions as general and short (Kaymaz et al. 2022; Eslamipoor and Sepehriar 2014).

SWOT is an intuitive and straightforward method that closely relates various internal strengths and weaknesses of the research subject with external opportunities and threats, analyzing them in relation to each other. The A’WOT analysis conducted for HPP (Hydroelectric Power Plant) areas is a comprehensive, systematic, and accurate analysis that combines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in a comparative manner, deriving a relevant development strategy supported by specific fundamental theories through the integration of the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis method. The A’WOT method, first proposed by Kurttila et al. (2000), is a hybrid method that combines the AHP and SWOT analyses (Kurttila et al. 2000; Akbulak and Cengiz 2014). The SWOT-AHP analysis is a method that combines qualitative and quantitative research. It makes the SWOT model more objective by integrating the methods and concepts of the SWOT model with the scientific nature of itemization. The hierarchical analysis process makes the data analysis more clear, and the results are easily acceptable and credible (Abdel-Basset et al. 2018). Using AHP within a SWOT framework aims to systematically evaluate and prioritize SWOT variables in a proportional manner (Asadpourian et al. 2020). This is a reasonable starting point for examining the current state, expected state, or a possible action plan in more detail (Cristache et al. 2021; Kaymaz et al. 2022). In the A’WOT method, SWOT analyses are conducted in the initial stage (Kurt 2020). For this purpose, SWOT groups consisting of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats are first created. Then, the factors belonging to each SWOT group are ranked as neutrally as possible. In this way, the factors related to the internal and external environment are included in the SWOT analyses. Subsequently, pairwise comparisons are made among the factors within each SWOT group. Based on the information obtained from these comparisons, using the self-value approach within the AHP technique, the relative importance (priorities) of the factors are calculated. Then, pairwise comparisons are made among the four SWOT groups (Kurttila et al. 2000; Kajanus et al. 2004). This process is performed separately for each of the four SWOT groups. As a result, general priority values for all SWOT factors, with a total value equal to one, are obtained (Fig. 2) (Lee et al. 2021).

The A’WOT method is implemented with a systematic approach. Firstly, the goals are determined based on the SWOT framework, and a hierarchical model is organized. Pairwise comparisons of the identified SWOT criteria are conducted. This comparison is based on Saaty’s 9-point scale for analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (Saaty 1987) (Table 1). The pairwise comparisons of the generated criteria are arranged in an n × n square matrix. The diagonal elements of the matrix are equal to 1. If the value of element (i, j) is greater than 1, then the criterion in the i-th row is considered better than the criterion in the j-th column; otherwise, the criterion in the j-th column is considered better than the criterion in the i-th row. The (j, i) element of the matrix is the reciprocal of the (i, j) element. The principal eigenvalue of the comparison matrix and its corresponding normalized right eigenvector provide the relative importance of the various compared criteria. The elements of the normalized eigenvector are referred to as “weights” for criteria or sub-criteria and as “rankings” for alternatives (Lee and Walsh 2011).

The consistency of the matrix of order n is evaluated. Comparisons made by this method are subjective and the AHP tolerates inconsistency through the amount of redundancy in the approach. If this consistency index fails to reach a required level, then the answers to comparisons may be re-examined. where λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix. This CI can be compared with that of a random matrix (RI). The RI values are fixed numbers and determined by n values. Then, the ratio derived (CI/RI) is termed the consistency ratio (CR) (Eryürük et al. 2022; Kürüm Varolgüneş et al. 2021).

Random Consistency Index değerleri;

The CR value is generally considered reliable if it is less than 0.1; otherwise, the process of minimizing errors is carried out by repeating pairwise comparisons (Kamaruzzaman et al. 2018; Saaty 1987, 1990; Razavi et al. 2011). This process is repeated until sufficient consistency is achieved.

Some researchers have also utilized the TOWS matrix in conjunction with A’WOT when determining strategies for tourism (Kişi 2019; Asadpourian et al. 2020; Topçu 2018; Akbulak and Cengiz 2014; Özgeriş and Karahan 2021). The TOWS matrix is a quantitative strategic planning matrix. The TOWS matrix (Weihrich 1982), is formulated based on the SWOT factors with the highest priority values from each SWOT group. Using the TOWS matrix, strategies are developed to address the elimination of weaknesses, the exploitation of opportunities, and the mitigation of threats, based on the priority of strengths. In this study, the A’WOT method is enhanced with the TOWS matrix in accordance with the region-specific vision statement and the fundamental sustainable tourism objectives. The TOWS analysis enables the development of strategies to leverage positive aspects to mitigate the negative aspects of the current situation.

If we trace the connection between the hydroelectric development in the Keban region and the development of nature tourism and recreational activities in the Pertek region, important insights emerge regarding the emergence of a new tourism resource in the area. The relationship between natural resources and tourism development is critical, and this study evaluates the connection between hydroelectric landscapes and various forms of nature tourism. The underlying hypothesis is that “local development based on a renewable natural resource (hydroelectric energy) can be expanded in a way that preserves a region’s cultural resources”. Pertek has been significantly impacted by the hydroelectric development project, transforming it into a potential hub for nature-based and cultural tourism. The district boasts distinctive and highly valuable attractions, including a historical castle on an island in the Keban Dam Lake, historical mosques, shrines, and fountains. Its natural beauty, pristine landscape, and potential for water sports and recreational fishing further enhance its appeal. However, the limited human activity that has preserved Pertek’s unique character requires careful planning to ensure that tourism development aligns with the region’s scale and ecological sensitivity. An appealing image of a tourism resource alone is insufficient for successful destination marketing; visitor satisfaction is also crucial. (Rodriguez 2012). Satisfaction stems from the positive experiences tourists have, which depend on the destination’s attractiveness, quality, and value. Balancing these factors with sustainable development goals is essential for long-term success (Chen and Tsai 2007).

The development of tourism in Pertek hinges on the active involvement and cooperation of multiple stakeholders, including the local community, local government, businesses, and tourists. While the local community plays a pivotal role in ensuring that tourism aligns with regional cultural and environmental values, other stakeholders significantly influence decision-making processes. The balance of power and collaboration among these groups is crucial in shaping effective and sustainable tourism policies. Local governments provide the foundational framework for sustainable tourism through infrastructure development, policy formulation, and enforcement. Their role in implementing zoning regulations, environmental protection measures, and community engagement programs lays the groundwork for long-term planning. Businesses contribute by investing in tourism facilities and services, such as accommodations, recreational activities, and eco-friendly initiatives, which enhance the attractiveness of the region. Tourists, as the end-users of the destination, indirectly drive policy and development priorities through their preferences and feedback. Meanwhile, the local community’s active participation ensures that tourism development addresses their socioeconomic needs, safeguards cultural heritage, and preserves the environment. This interplay of interests among stakeholders forms a dynamic network where strategic planning must balance and harmonize varying priorities. To develop sustainable tourism strategies for Pertek, a comprehensive SWOT analysis was conducted (Kurt 2020). The analysis aimed to systematically identify and prioritize factors impacting the region’s tourism potential. Eight sub-factors for strengths, six for opportunities, and seven each for weaknesses and threats were identified (Table 2). Strengths represent intrinsic attributes that add value to the region, including its green landscapes, abundant water resources, diverse flora and fauna, and rich cultural heritage. These features collectively create a robust positive potential for rural tourism, particularly in areas like eco-tourism and cultural tourism. The historical assets of Pertek, such as mosques, shrines, and a historical castle situated on an island, are significant tourism draws that enhance the region’s appeal. Weaknesses, on the other hand, are internal challenges that hinder tourism development. These include the lack of awareness and entrepreneurial capacity among the local population, inadequate infrastructure such as accommodation facilities, and insufficient environmental management practices. Issues such as waste mismanagement and vulnerability to water and soil contamination also pose challenges that need to be addressed to ensure the long-term viability of tourism in the region. Opportunities are external factors that the region can leverage to its advantage. Pertek’s untouched natural environment, preserved cultural heritage, and growing interest in rural tourism trends offer significant potential for development. The global demand for sustainable and eco-friendly tourism provides an excellent opportunity to market Pertek as a destination for environmentally conscious travelers. Threats are external barriers, often beyond direct control, that pose risks to tourism development. These include environmental degradation caused by unregulated tourism activities, climate change impacts on water resources, and inconsistent enforcement of policies aimed at protecting natural and cultural assets. Additionally, competition from other nearby destinations could divert tourist inflow, necessitating strategic branding and marketing initiatives for Pertek.

The conducted SWOT analysis provides a holistic perspective on the region’s potential and challenges. It serves as the foundation for designing strategies that capitalize on strengths, address weaknesses, seize opportunities, and mitigate threats. By integrating the SWOT findings with stakeholder input and leveraging the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for prioritization, targeted strategies were developed. For example, training programs for the local population can enhance entrepreneurial skills and environmental awareness, while targeted investments in eco-friendly infrastructure can address weaknesses and align with global tourism trends. Policymakers can use these insights to develop collaborative frameworks that balance stakeholder interests, promote sustainable practices, and ensure long-term benefits for the region.

To prioritize these factors, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used. Surveys were conducted with a diverse group of stakeholders, including 4 tourism experts, 6 academics, 10 tourism students, 2 local administrators, and 2 business owners. Pairwise comparisons helped determine the relative importance of each SWOT factor. This process revealed that natural and cultural assets were deemed the most critical strengths, while waste management and policy enforcement were identified as primary areas requiring improvement. The combined SWOT-AHP analysis informs strategic recommendations to leverage strengths, address weaknesses, exploit opportunities, and mitigate threats. Strategies include enhancing local capacity through training and entrepreneurial support, implementing stricter environmental regulations, and promoting eco-friendly tourism initiatives. Collaboration among stakeholders is emphasized to ensure balanced and inclusive decision-making.

Upon examining the consistency ratios of the SWOT groups, it was determined that the decision matrix among the main SWOT factors had a consistency ratio of 0.0337. Concerning the pairwise comparisons of SWOT sub-factors, the decision matrix was found to be consistent with a consistency ratio of 0.0957 for strengths, 0.0910 for weaknesses, 0.0797 for opportunities, and 0.0853 for threats. The most significant priority was calculated to be a weight of 0.4719 for “Strengths,” followed by 0.2572 for “Opportunities,” 0.2010 for “Weaknesses,” and 0.0700 for “Threats.” The analysis results have been consolidated and presented in Table 3. When examining the priorities of factors related to SWOT groups, it was found that the strongest factor in rural tourism development was the “abundance of water resources in the region (S1)” with a weight of 0.2701. This was followed by the “Geothermal area in rural landscape (S2)” with a weight of 0.2190, “Existence of natural attractions such as mountains, springs, and forest habitats (S5)” with a weight of 0.1243, and “Accessibility and safety of the region (S6)” with a weight of 0.1053. All of these factors were considered strong factors.

When examining the factors related to weaknesses, it was determined that the weakest factor, with a weight of 0.2127, was “lack of knowledge and entrepreneurial spirit among the local community (W1)” due to the inability to adequately exploit tourism in economic terms and a lack of awareness of the existing potential. Consequently, “undetermined carrying capacity for tourism in the region (W5)” was ranked as the second weakest factor with a weight of 0.1830, followed by “lack of systematic management of waste and pollution of water and soil (W2)” with a weight of 0.1766, and “lack of coordination and communication among stakeholders (local community, non-governmental organizations, local government, and the public) (W6)” with a weight of 0.1507. These factors were considered the weakest aspects.

Furthermore, the most significant opportunities in the development of rural tourism in the region were identified as follows: “Increased attention to develop tourism conditions in the region to create jobs and prevent migration (O3)” with a weight of 0.2496 and “Possibility of recording a hydropower plant as a sustainable rural tourism site (O4)” with a weight of 0.2246. These sub-factors were followed by “Enhancing the appeal of the region for local tourists (O1)” with a weight of 0.1829 and “Encouraging the government to invest in the area’s private sector (O5)” with a weight of 0.1313.

The weights of the criteria considered as threats are nearly in the same proportion. The top three weights are very close, with 0.1688 for “Destruction of natural conservation areas (T7),” 0.1677 for “The effect of hydropower plants on water quality, flora, and fauna diversity (T5),” and 0.1629 for “The loss of the region’s unique cultural and social values upon opening up to tourism (T3).” The subsequent threats are ranked as follows: “Outmigration of the young population in the region (T1)” with a weight of 0.1309, “Natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides (T6)” with a weight of 0.1306, “The political and economic instabilities in the region (T4)” with a weight of 0.1207, and “Low ecological awareness of some tourists (T2)” with a weight of 0.1185. After the A’WOT analysis, strategy recommendations for the sustainable development of the rural tourism destination are provided using the TOWS matrix. Although the study focuses on Turkey, it offers long-term and healthy development recommendations for rural tourism destinations in different regions (Tables 4 and 5).

When examining the TOWS matrix shown in the table, the strategies were determined as follows:

Effective electricity generation relies on natural features such as water flow and storage potential, often found in remote and mountainous areas with fast-flowing rivers, which are also preferred by nature-based tourists. All activities developed for these types of tourism should be designed with consideration for their environmental impacts. Tourism should not only focus on economic benefits but also take into account environmental and social benefits. In order to achieve sustainable development, a potential environmental threat assessment system should be established, which reflects material and energy inputs and outputs, tourist capacity, and the limits of environmental degradation within a defined range and degree. Efforts should be made to preserve the region’s cultural and historical heritage. A development policy should be formulated that preserves the region’s nature and resources while contributing to its economic and social progress.

In efforts to preserve the existing natural and cultural heritage, it is crucial to foster collaboration among local governments, civil society organizations, and universities. National and local development plans should be prepared, and necessary infrastructure should be established to generate economic support. Greater investment should be made in the development of tourism infrastructure. Through the support of local governments, the local community should be educated and a qualified workforce should be developed. Transportation routes in the region should be reorganized, and alternative transportation methods should be established for regional accessibility. Regular festivals and events should be organized in the region, and promotion should be carried out at the national and international levels.

In the discussions conducted, the establishment of hydroelectric power plants to meet the energy demand is generally seen as a positive development. The construction and operation of these plants create job opportunities in the region. However, hydroelectric energy facilities have various impacts on their immediate surroundings (Koç 2014). These impacts can affect the social life, nature, historical elements, and cultural assets of the local community. In this regard, the process of project preparation and implementation is crucial. In a project involving a reservoir, there may be areas that will be submerged under water. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the nature and characteristics of the areas that will be affected by the dam. The ongoing life in the region may need to be relocated to new settlements. The damage to forests and vegetation, the negative effects on agricultural areas, and the impact on local animal species are all possible. Therefore, all these factors should be carefully evaluated, and decisions should be made accordingly during the establishment of the power plant. Considering the region’s potential for natural disasters, it is essential to prepare the necessary risk reports and take appropriate measures.

Recommendations should be developed to transform tourism activities into economic contributions for the local population and to improve their living standards. In the development of tourism in the region, involving all stakeholders and including them in decision-making processes will ensure sustainable tourism development. This situation will encourage local residents and other community organizations to take ownership of tourism resources in the region. One of the most important functions of rural tourism is its effectiveness in preventing rural migration. In areas with a weak economy, population migration is an inevitable phenomenon. The main way to prevent migration is to improve or diversify livelihood sources and increase social welfare. Therefore, tourism plays a crucial role as a savior for rural areas. The employment potential generated in the region during the construction and operation of power plants has the potential to reduce migration in the area. Since accommodation and other services in rural tourism mostly take place in small family businesses or countryside hotels, it provides job opportunities for all family members. In particular, women actively taking on various responsibilities and directly serving tourists, while earning money, solidifies their status within the community.

Hydroelectric Power Plants have begun to spread worldwide as a means to reduce external dependency and meet energy needs from local resources. Although hydroelectric power plants are renewable energy sources, they can often cause irreversible damage to nature and force displacement of living organisms. Therefore, when developing such projects, the natural environment and socio-cultural structure should be considered as a whole. Preserving natural assets and cultural heritage in destinations created by natural beauty is essential for the future of the region. Ensuring that energy sources used to meet the region’s energy demands are sustainable will facilitate the preservation of its natural beauty for the future.

The study conducted in Tunceli-Pertek suggests the following strategies for sustainable development in rural tourism:

This study conducted in Turkey is expected to serve as an example for future research on rural tourism destinations. Developing tourism directly increases sales revenue for businesses, promotes local production, creates new job and investment opportunities, and increases government revenue through taxation. However, unchecked development also leads to social and environmental issues. To minimize these problems, governments need to develop a series of new policies and provide financial support. Literature research and field studies indicate that the identified problems for rural tourism in developing countries are similar. Therefore, the following recommendations are advised to be taken into consideration when developing sustainable rural tourism strategies.