A Study of a Dynamic Early Warning Model to Determine Grain Security in China

This chapter studies the key indicators of the impact on food security, using DS theory to build China’s food-security dynamic early warning model, by calculating the weight of key indicators fusion method. This chapter verifies the validity of the model about China’s data from the period 1996 to 2011. The results show that by selecting objective, scientific indicators, the fusion method used can calculate the different years in which the key indicators of weight changed and then obtain the main factors affecting food security in a particular year as well as the previous year to obtain dynamic evaluation data on the food security in the future, which is consistent with the results of the evaluation of historical data over the years, thus proving the feasibility of constructing a dynamic early warning model.