Skip to main content
Erschienen in:

23.09.2022

A synthetic control analysis of U.S. state level COVID-19 stay-at-home orders on new jobless claims

verfasst von: John Gibson, Xiaojin Sun

Erschienen in: Journal of Economics and Finance | Ausgabe 1/2023

Einloggen, um Zugang zu erhalten

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate regarding the economic consequences of public policies designed to curb public health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Many opponents of such policies claim that their economic costs may outweigh their health benefits. In this paper, we use synthetic control analysis to determine the impact of stay-at-home orders on weekly new jobless claims during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis reveals that while new jobless claims spike following the stay-at-home orders, similar spikes are observed within our synthetic control. Specifically, we find that stay-at-home orders account for only 32 percent of the increase in new jobless claims, with the majority of the increase being driven by factors outside of the policy, such as the general spread of the virus and waning consumer confidence.

Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
While estimating the health benefits of statewide SAH orders is outside the scope of the present paper, existing works in the literature have found that these policies carry large health benefits. For example, Friedson et al. (2020) find that California’s SAH order reduced COVID-19 cases by 125.5 to 219.7 per 100,000 individuals and lead to as many as 1,661 fewer COVID-19 deaths by April 20. Courtemanche et al. (2020) find that the state of Kentucky would have had more than ten fold the number of COVID-19 cases actually observed by April 25 if the state had relied on voluntary social distancing along.
 
2
Karpman et al. (2020) state that social isolation and physical distancing practices have led to a historic rise in unemployment insurance claims, the largest decline in retail sales on record, surging demand at food banks, and increased reports for delinquent rent and request for mortgage forbearance.
 
3
Difference-in-Differences (DiD) is one of the more frequently used methods in treatment evaluation studies. It involves a comparison between a treatment unit and a control unit before and after the treatment under a parallel trend assumption. The treatment effect is the difference between the observed outcome value and what the value would have been with parallel trends had there been no treatment. While the DiD model allows the outcome to be driven by unobserved confounders, it restricts the effects of those confounders to be time invariant (see the discussion in Abadie et al. 2010).
 
4
This yields 4 quarterly averages of jobless claims in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and the average of jobless claims in the first quarter of 2020 prior to the start date of an SAH order. We also try averaging the pre-treatment outcome biannually, annually, or over the entire pre-treatment period and our results are robust.
 
5
We choose to end our sample on April 25 because, since late April, many states started to reopen.
 
6
We present the graphs for New York and Washington only due to space limitations. All graphs are available from the authors upon request.
 
7
Among the 7 states without statewide SAH orders, three counties in Utah (Davis County with 352,000 people, Salt Lake County with 1.2 million people, and Summit County with 42,000 people) and one county in Wyoming (Jackson with 10,000 people) issued similar restrictions. As a robustness check, we exclude Utah and Wyoming from the donor pool and our results are robust. The robustness check results are available from the authors upon request.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Abadie A (2021) Using synthetic controls: feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. J Econ Lit 59(2):391–425CrossRef Abadie A (2021) Using synthetic controls: feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. J Econ Lit 59(2):391–425CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. J Am Stat Assoc 105(490):493–505CrossRef Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. J Am Stat Assoc 105(490):493–505CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Abadie A, Gardeazabal J (2003) The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. Am Econ Rev 93(1):113–132CrossRef Abadie A, Gardeazabal J (2003) The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. Am Econ Rev 93(1):113–132CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Baek C, McCrory PB, Messer TMui (2021) P Unemployment effects of stay-at-home orders: Evidence from high-frequency claims data. Rev Econ Stat 103(5):979–993CrossRef Baek C, McCrory PB, Messer TMui (2021) P Unemployment effects of stay-at-home orders: Evidence from high-frequency claims data. Rev Econ Stat 103(5):979–993CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Friedson AI, McNichols D, Sabia JJ, Dave D (2020) Did California’s shelter-in-place order work? Early coronavirus-related public health effects. NBER Working Paper No. 26992. Available at https://www.nber.org/papers/w26992. Accessed April 2020 Friedson AI, McNichols D, Sabia JJ, Dave D (2020) Did California’s shelter-in-place order work? Early coronavirus-related public health effects. NBER Working Paper No. 26992. Available at https://​www.​nber.​org/​papers/​w26992. Accessed April 2020
Zurück zum Zitat Luo S, Tsang KP (2020) China and world output impact of the Hubei lockdown during the coronavirus outbreak. Contemp Econ Pol 38(4):583–592CrossRef Luo S, Tsang KP (2020) China and world output impact of the Hubei lockdown during the coronavirus outbreak. Contemp Econ Pol 38(4):583–592CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Partridge MD (1997) The dispersion of US state unemployment rates: The role of market and non-market equilibrium factors. Reg Stud 31(6):593–606CrossRef Partridge MD (1997) The dispersion of US state unemployment rates: The role of market and non-market equilibrium factors. Reg Stud 31(6):593–606CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
A synthetic control analysis of U.S. state level COVID-19 stay-at-home orders on new jobless claims
verfasst von
John Gibson
Xiaojin Sun
Publikationsdatum
23.09.2022
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Journal of Economics and Finance / Ausgabe 1/2023
Print ISSN: 1055-0925
Elektronische ISSN: 1938-9744
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-022-09604-9

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2023

Journal of Economics and Finance 1/2023 Zur Ausgabe

Premium Partner