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Erschienen in:

2014 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

8. A Toy Model

verfasst von : Antoine Bret

Erschienen in: The Energy-Climate Continuum

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Imagine a large swimming pool in the desert. It was almost full when you saw it first, as a tap had been filling it for a long time. You came in with your folks and found this huge amount of water.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Constraints and Hazards

Nächstes Kapitel Why Societies are Fragile

This stabilization is due to the fact that fertility has been steadily dropping all over the world during the last decades. For example, the USA and Bangladesh are now surprisingly close fertility wise, with 1.9 and 2.2 children per woman, respectively, in 2011. See lively statistics on these topics and many others, at www.gapminder.org.

See www.hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi

For \(y\ll y_0-a\), \(P(y)\sim P_\infty \text {e}^{(y-y_0)/a}\). It follows that \(P(y+1)/P(y)=\text {e}^{1/a}\sim 1+1/a\) for \(a\gg 1\).

The challenge here is that you cannot avoid two energy conversions: electricity \(\rightarrow \) storage and then storage \(\rightarrow \) electricity. For the first step, efficiency can raise up to 80 % [6]. For the second, the best fuel cells currently reach 65% [7], giving an overall yield of \(80\times 65\,\%=52\,\%\) at best. And storage itself may equally have an energetic cost, as is the case for compressed hydrogen, for example, where compression takes its toll.

The world is now at 1.8 toe/capita. But Brazil, India, and China, with more than 2.5 billion people and 1.36, 0.59, and 1.8 toe/capita, respectively, seem to be willing to join the 4.6 toe of OECD countries.

V. Smil, Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties (MIT Press, cambridge, 2005)

United Nations. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Population Studies (United Nations Publications, New York, 2012)

D.M. Martínez, B.W. Ebenhack, Understanding the role of energy consumption in human development through the use of saturation phenomena. Energ. Policy 36(4), 1430–1435 (2008)CrossRef

B. Metz and IPCC Working Group III, Climate Change 2007—Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Climate Change 2007 (Cambridge University Press, (Cambridge, 2007)

V. Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects (Praeger, Westport, 2010)

G.W. Crabtree, M.S. Dresselhaus, M.V. Buchanan, The hydrogen economy. Phys. Today 57(12), 39–44 (2004)CrossRef

E.D. Wachsman, K.T. Lee, Lowering the Temperature of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. Science 334, 935 (2011)CrossRef

International Energy Agency. Key world energy statistics. International Energy Agency, 2012

Titel: A Toy Model
verfasst von: Antoine Bret
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: The Energy-Climate Continuum
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-07919-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-07920-2

Copyright-Jahr: 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07920-2_8