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Erschienen in:
2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Abrupt Climate Change
verfasst von : Francis A. Galgano
Erschienen in: The Environment-Conflict Nexus
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Abstract
Changes in Holocene climate have generally been gradual and the environmental security effects have been manageable. However, the long–term Holocene climate record also indicates that significant change is usually abrupt with major implications for regional and global stability. Economic and ecological impacts of abrupt climate events could exceed the adaptation capacity of most states. Climate models suggest that a potential abrupt event may result in harsher winter conditions, severe drought, and more intense zonal weather patterns. These conditions can induce major food and water shortages, persistent epidemics, and disputed access to energy resources. This scenario has the clear potential to destabilize the geopolitical environment thus leading to violent interstate conflict. This chapter will examine an abrupt climate change scenario from an environmental security perspective and present a regional framework to demonstrate the spatial pattern of potential threats.