America, the Baltic States and the Making of an Unlikely Security Alliance

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

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2. The Promise of Aligning with the Hegemon

   • Open Access

   Andris Banka

   Abstract

   This introductory chapter outlines the book’s overall plan and familiarizes the reader with the key themes in the context of the US-Baltic security alliance. It spotlights the numerous critiques that detractors have leveled against this alliance. Moreover, the chapter briefly discusses a defining feature of this relationship, namely its asymmetry and the consequences that flow from this fact. Bluntly stated, the Baltics need America more than the other way around. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are the junior partners in this relationship, with more at stake, while Washington can conceivably go it alone. Setting the stage for the key theoretical discussions in this book, the chapter also notes the trade-offs of this relationship, its inherent risks, and potential benefits for each side. Lastly, the discussion outlines the scholarly contribution that this manuscript intends to make and identifies the sources and methods that will be mobilized to provide an original study of the US-Baltic security alliance.

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3. Special but Non-Aligned: US-Baltic Relations in the Shadow of the Soviet Collapse

   • Open Access

   Andris Banka

   Abstract

   This chapter discusses the collapse of the Soviet Union and the United States’ stance regarding the question of Baltic independence. During the long Cold War years, Washington pursued a policy of non-recognition regarding the three Baltic states. As such, the Balts were perceived as “heroic little people” who opposed Soviet rule. However, when Vilnius first sought to break away from direct Soviet rule, the US hesitated. With all the goodwill towards the Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians, President George H. W. Bush wanted to play it safe, without upsetting Gorbachev’s reformist agenda. Caught between these two competing pulls, Bush attempted to walk a tightrope until it became untenable. After Washington reestablished official relations with the Baltic countries, there was little to suggest that these ties could one day mature into a formalized security alliance. Curiously, though, the US Department of Defense had begun to draw a larger blueprint for America’s security role in the post-Cold War era. As part of the plans, the Pentagon had gamed out a scenario in which it defended Lithuania against a Russian military incursion. The material that follows recounts how American-Baltic ties evolved during a pivotal moment, namely the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

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4. Foreign Troops Vanish: The Russian Army’s Removal from the Baltics

   • Open Access

   Andris Banka

   Abstract

   This chapter grapples with the Washington-Baltic-Moscow negotiations concerning Russian troop withdrawal from the Baltic states. In the early 1990s, all three Baltic republics hosted thousands of former Red Army troops, together with various Soviet-era military installations ranging from a nuclear submarine training facility in Estonia to a massive anti-ballistic missile radar in Latvia. This Soviet-era carcass was the key issue hanging over the newly freed Baltics. Moscow held firm and wanted to keep its military foothold in this part of Europe for years to come. The Baltics vehemently objected. Outside parties, above all, Washington, played a crucial role in these negotiations. US President Bill Clinton put the troop withdrawal issue on the administration’s back burner, pleading and cajoling the Russian president to speed up this process. Side payments, specifically financial aid, were used by Washington to secure the desired concessions and finalize agreements. Drawing on a wealth of declassified diplomatic cables from the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations, this chapter pulls back the curtain on a highly consequential post-Cold War event – the Russian army’s exit from the Baltic.

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5. Alliance Formation: The Baltics Unlock NATO’s Door

   • Open Access

   Andris Banka

   Abstract

   This chapter provides a comprehensive account of the US-Baltic alliance formation stage. Drawing upon sizable archival material and interviews with key participants, the following delves into the complex dynamics of the Baltic road to NATO. From today’s vantage point, it may seem like a foregone conclusion that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were somehow destined to join the transatlantic alliance. The material presented, however, starkly illustrates that this was never a preordained outcome. Before the turn of the century, the idea that NATO would extend Article 5 responsibilities to small states in the backyard of a nuclear-armed Russia seemed highly unlikely. Given Russian objections and the overwhelming consensus across European capitals against eastward expansion, how did Riga, Tallinn, and Vilnius defy the odds and squeeze under the NATO umbrella? By interrogating a vast trove of US and Baltic sources, the following peels back the various layers of this process and breaks new ground in the NATO expansion literature.

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6. The Blood Price: Small States in US-Led Coalitions of the Willing

   • Open Access

   Andris Banka

   Abstract

   The following chapter dissects the logic behind the Baltic states’ willingness to send their soldiers to US-led military interventions. It does so by consulting a wide range of sources, such as declassified documents, parliamentary debates, and interviews with former senior officials and diplomats. Baltic lawmakers, in justifying these military interventions, often weaved a narrative about democracy promotion and the need to rid the world of authoritarian despots. A closer inspection, however, reveals a different guiding rationalization, one that centers on the notion of small-state status-seeking. The thinking underpinning this phenomenon can be summarized as follows: by deploying their armed forces to perilous conflict zones and supporting US war objectives, junior allies aim to accrue positive social capital in the eyes of their primary security patron. This loyal ally status can then later be leveraged to address their own, more localized, security concerns. For the Baltics, participation in coalition warfare was thus conceived as an upfront cost to ensure that in a time of need, other NATO allies, particularly the United States, would be there for them.

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7. The Baltic Contingency: NATO’s Evolving Force Posture in the Region

   • Open Access

   Andris Banka

   Abstract

   This chapter traces the arc of NATO’s evolving force posture in the Baltic states. As such, it scrutinizes the different measures allies have undertaken to signal their willingness to fulfill Article 5 obligations vis-à-vis Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The material discussed here suggests that, over time, the transatlantic alliance has approached the Baltic defense question in radically different ways. Prior to 2014, NATO governments were reluctant to establish any military infrastructure or deploy armed forces in the eastern parts of the alliance. Only after the Russian forcible takeover of Crimea did NATO begin to thicken its presence by stationing multinational troops, pre-positioning military equipment, and conducting large-scale regional military exercises. The alliance instituted the so-called “tripwire”. February 24, 2022, marked another watershed moment. In light of Moscow’s full-scale war against Ukraine, allied governments vowed to redesign their force posture on NATO’s eastern flank in a manner that could repel a Russian invasion without sacrificing territory. The following sheds new light on these moments of transformation and critically examines the challenges that remain.

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8. Drawdown, Exit, or Enduring Alliance?

   • Open Access

   Andris Banka

   Abstract

   One of the defining features of the Donald Trump presidency has been his disdain for traditional US security alliances. While Trump’s views on foreign affairs are in constant flux, one persistent theme has been his conviction that the United States reaps insufficient benefits from its role as a security protector of Europe. Adding to these uncertainties is the fact that Europe’s prominence in American grand strategy has been steadily eroding. As expressed by both Democrats and Republicans, vital US national interests today are, first and foremost, tied to developments in the Indo-Pacific. With all these internal and external pressures on multiple fronts, can NATO still be revamped in a manner to meet the challenges of today? Is America’s role as the lead security provider in Europe drawing to a close? The concluding chapter discusses the shadow of alliance abandonment and sketches out the possible future trajectories of US-Baltic relations.

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