An Analysis of the Climate Change Mitigation Potential through Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration in a Corn Belt Watershed

Land-based carbon sequestration constitutes a major low cost and immediately viable option in climate change mitigation. Using downscaled data from eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for a simulation period between 2015 and 2099, we examine the carbon sequestration potential of alternative agricultural land uses in an intensively farmed Corn Belt watershed and the impact of climate change on crop yields. Our results show that switching from conventional tillage continuous corn to no-till corn-soybean can sequester the equivalent of 192.1 MtCO₂ eq of soil organic carbon per hectare with a sequestration rate of 2.26 MtCO₂ eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Our results also indicate that switchgrass can sequester the equivalent of 310.7 MtCO₂ eq of soil organic carbon per hectare with a sequestration rate of 3.65 MtCO₂ eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Our findings suggest that, unlike for corn and soybean yields, climate change does not have a significant effect on switchgrass yields, possibly due to the carbon fertilization effect.