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2012 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

An Approach to Estimate the Probability in Meeting Army Maintenance Personnel Requirements

verfasst von : Thang Cao, Benjamin Francis, Nick Brealey

Erschienen in: Engineering Asset Management and Infrastructure Sustainability

Verlag: Springer London

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Abstract

Estimating the maintenance workforce requirements of the Australian Army is a process of matching maintenance demand, resources, cost, and risk. Analysis of the equipment-specific demand has been historically undertaken within Army using a static mean-based estimate of tradesperson effort, known as work value units (WVU). An alternative to the mean-based approach is to consider a quantile methods where the analyst can either calculate the probability of meeting liabilities over the course of the year with a fixed capability, or conversely determine the number of hours to achieve a certain probability of meeting a fixed fleet liability. A difficulty of this approach is that the annual maintenance liability for different equipment types are represented by the sum of non identical random variables and an analytical description of a distribution of this type is impossible to obtain in general. This paper proposes a bootstrap simulation approach and an approximated analytical distribution to estimate the annual total maintenance time for a range of different equipment types. From this we can estimate the probability in not being able to support multiple fleets of arbitrary size, and hence allow a baseline for workforce development.

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Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Army Materiel Maintenance Policy, 750-1, Headquarters Department of the Army, Washington, 15 July 2005 Army Materiel Maintenance Policy, 750-1, Headquarters Department of the Army, Washington, 15 July 2005
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Cao T, Francis B (2007) Work value unit—an approach to estimate Army maintenance workforce requirement, Proceeding of ICOMS Asset Management Conference 2007, Melbourne Cao T, Francis B (2007) Work value unit—an approach to estimate Army maintenance workforce requirement, Proceeding of ICOMS Asset Management Conference 2007, Melbourne
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Meeker WQ, Escobar LA (1998) Statistical methods for reliability data. John Wiley and Sons, New YorkMATH Meeker WQ, Escobar LA (1998) Statistical methods for reliability data. John Wiley and Sons, New YorkMATH
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Beaulieu NC, Xie Q (2004) An optimal lognormal approximation to lognormal sum distributions. IEEE Trans Veh Tech 53(2):479–489CrossRef Beaulieu NC, Xie Q (2004) An optimal lognormal approximation to lognormal sum distributions. IEEE Trans Veh Tech 53(2):479–489CrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Cramer H (1945) Mathematical methods of statistics. Princeton University Press, Princeton Cramer H (1945) Mathematical methods of statistics. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Metadaten
Titel
An Approach to Estimate the Probability in Meeting Army Maintenance Personnel Requirements
verfasst von
Thang Cao
Benjamin Francis
Nick Brealey
Copyright-Jahr
2012
Verlag
Springer London
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-493-7_7