An Improved Estimation Model for Dam Failure-Induced Loss of Life

The potential loss of life (LOL) resulting from dam failures represents a critical concern in the field of dam safety and disaster management. The accurate estimation of LOL is paramount for informed decision-making, emergency preparedness, and the minimization of human casualties in such catastrophic events. The purpose of this study is to propose an improved model for LOL estimation specific to North American dam failure cases. The study involves a review of existing literature, selecting a model, and refining the chosen model to improve its predictive capabilities for LOL. The approach categorizes dam failure into subcases based on flood severity. It then identifies and filters the more important influencing variables. Subsequently, two empirical equations that serve as the calculation method for LOL formulated through multivariate regression analysis are derived using thirteen dam failure subcases. A comparison with Graham's model shows that the proposed model performs better in predicting LOL. The successful implementation of this model suggests its potential applicability for diverse regions.