Skip to main content
main-content

Tipp

Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen

18.05.2017 | Invited Paper | Ausgabe 5/2017

Fire Technology 5/2017

An Unbiased Method for Probabilistic Fire Safety Engineering, Requiring a Limited Number of Model Evaluations

Zeitschrift:
Fire Technology > Ausgabe 5/2017
Autoren:
Ruben Van Coile, Georgios P. Balomenos, Mahesh D. Pandey, Robby Caspeele

Abstract

The rise of Performance Based Design methodologies for fire safety engineering has increased the interest of the fire safety community in the concepts of risk and reliability. Practical applications have however been severely hampered by the lack of an efficient unbiased calculation methodology. This is because on the one hand, the distribution types of model output variables in fire safety engineering are not known and traditional distribution types as for example the normal and lognormal distribution may result in unsafe approximations. Therefore unbiased methods must be applied which make no (implicit) assumptions on the PDF type. Traditionally these unbiased methods are based on Monte Carlo simulations. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulations require a large number of model evaluations and are therefore too computationally expensive when large and nonlinear calculation models are applied, as is common in fire safety engineering. The methodology presented in this paper avoids this deadlock by making an unbiased estimate of the PDF based on only a very limited number of model evaluations. The methodology is known as the Maximum Entropy Multiplicative Dimensional Reduction Method (ME-MDRM) and results in a mathematical formula for the probability density function (PDF) describing the uncertain output variable. The method can be applied with existing models and calculation tools and allows for a parallelization of model evaluations. The example applications given in the paper stem from the field of structural fire safety and illustrate the excellent performance of the method for probabilistic structural fire safety engineering. The ME-MDRM can however be considered applicable to other types of engineering models as well.

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten

Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 50.000 Bücher
  • über 380 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Umwelt
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




Testen Sie jetzt 30 Tage kostenlos.

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 69.000 Bücher
  • über 500 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Umwelt
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Testen Sie jetzt 30 Tage kostenlos.

Literatur
Über diesen Artikel

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 5/2017

Fire Technology 5/2017 Zur Ausgabe