Skip to main content
main-content

Tipp

Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen

01.06.2015 | Ausgabe 8/2015

Water Resources Management 8/2015

Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula

Zeitschrift:
Water Resources Management > Ausgabe 8/2015
Autoren:
L. Vergni, F. Todisco, F. Mannocchi
Wichtige Hinweise
An erratum to this article can be found at http://​dx.​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s11269-015-1050-7.

Abstract

The potential of a copula model for the description of the joint probability distribution of two agricultural drought characteristics, the relative onset RO and the relative severity RS, is investigated in Perugia (Central Italy) in reference to a sunflower crop. The 1924–2009 time series of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were used to simulate, by means of the AquaCrop model, the root-zone soil water dynamics (SW t ) and the crop yield under rainfed conditions. The seasonal values of RO and RS were quantified, by applying the theory of runs to SW t (assumed as the drought reference variable), with a threshold equal to the crop critical point. The analysis shows that the best-fitting marginal distribution for both RO and RS is a truncated Gumbel distribution. The dependence structure of RO and RS, investigated by graphical and analytical techniques, was modeled by a Student copula, which is able to adequately reproduce both the overall and upper tail dependence among variables. Lastly, the Student copula was applied to obtain joint probabilities and bivariate return periods for RO and RS. These results, compared with the expected estimated yields, provide useful information for drought planning and management. For example, for the case study considered, it was found that the condition RO ≥ 0.43 (i.e., onset before the end of June) and RS ≥ 0.22 has a 5-year return period and is frequently associated with critical yields, and that the condition RO ≥ 0.47 (i.e., onset before mid-June) and RS ≥ 0.25 has a 10-year return period and is almost certainly associated with critical yields.

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten

Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 50.000 Bücher
  • über 380 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Umwelt
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




Testen Sie jetzt 30 Tage kostenlos.

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 69.000 Bücher
  • über 500 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Umwelt
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Testen Sie jetzt 30 Tage kostenlos.

Literatur
Über diesen Artikel

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 8/2015

Water Resources Management 8/2015 Zur Ausgabe