Analysis of landslide stability under seismic action and subsequent rainfall: a case study on the Ganjiazhai giant landslide along the Zhaotong-Qiaojia road during the 2014 Ludian earthquake, Yunnan, China

In a strong earthquake, not only a large number of coseismic landslides are triggered, but relaxation and cracks in the rocks and soils are induced, which make these rocks and soils vulnerable to instability during subsequent rainfall; thus, strong earthquakes always have long-term effects on landslides. The geo-hazards along the Zhaotong-Qiaojia road in the 2014 Ludian earthquake (Ms 6.5) of Yunnan Province, China, were investigated, and the Ganjiazhai giant landslide was chosen as a case study. First, using the limit equilibrium analysis and Newmark method, the critical seismic intensity of the landslide before the earthquake was evaluated. Secondly, the dynamic failure process of the landslide under the measured ground motion was simulated with the discontinuous deformation analysis method. Lastly, based on stress–seepage coupling analysis and precipitation data from Ludian meteorological station, the stability of the landslide during subsequent rainfall after the earthquake was predicted. The results show that the critical seismic intensity was within degrees VIII–IX, which is consistent with the results of the earthquake damage investigation. The dynamic failure process can be divided into four stages, and four scarps formed; the potential sliding zones during the subsequent rainfall were at the first scarp and the fourth scarp, and their critical rainfall amounts were 35–40 mm and 55–60 mm, respectively. In this paper, failure process simulation and stability prediction of the landslide before, during, and after the strong earthquake are presented, which provide analysis methods for the dynamic stability of landslides in the meizoseismal area.