Skip to main content

2014 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Analysis of Temporal Variability of Droughts in Southern Paraguay and Northern Argentina (1961–2011)

verfasst von : Maria Manuela Portela, Artur Tiago Silva, João Filipe dos Santos, Julián Baez Benitez, Carlos Frank, José Miguel Reichert

Erschienen in: International Perspectives on Climate Change

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The study presents an analysis of droughts using monthly rainfall data, from January 1961 to December 2011, from 11 rain gauges located in Paraguay and Northern Argentina. The characterization of the drought events used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) applied at different time scales (3, 6, and 12 consecutive months). The temporal variability of the droughts in the study period was analyzed in terms of changes in their frequency—regardless of the severity, has the frequency of droughts increased or decreased?—and in their severity—are we experiencing more severe droughts or not? The results achieved, despite proving the suitability of the approaches applied, did not reveal any trend towards an increase or a decrease either in the frequency of the droughts or in their severity in the studied area.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Agnew CT (2000) Using the SPI to identify drought. Drought Netw News 12:6–12 Agnew CT (2000) Using the SPI to identify drought. Drought Netw News 12:6–12
Zurück zum Zitat Capriolo AD, Scarpati OE (2012) Extreme hydrologic events in north area of Buenos Aires Province (Argentina). ISRN Meteorol, vol 2012. Article ID 415081, 9 p. doi:10.5402/2012/415081 Capriolo AD, Scarpati OE (2012) Extreme hydrologic events in north area of Buenos Aires Province (Argentina). ISRN Meteorol, vol 2012. Article ID 415081, 9 p. doi:10.​5402/​2012/​415081
Zurück zum Zitat Changnon SA, Easterling WE (1989) Measuring drought impacts: the Illinois case. Water Resour Bull 25:27–42CrossRef Changnon SA, Easterling WE (1989) Measuring drought impacts: the Illinois case. Water Resour Bull 25:27–42CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Christie DA, Boninsegna JA, Cleaveland MK, Lara A, Le Quesne C, Morales MS, Mudelsee M (2011) Aridity changes in the temperate–mediterranean transition of the Andes since AD 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings. Clim Dyn, Springer 36:1505–1521CrossRef Christie DA, Boninsegna JA, Cleaveland MK, Lara A, Le Quesne C, Morales MS, Mudelsee M (2011) Aridity changes in the temperate–mediterranean transition of the Andes since AD 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings. Clim Dyn, Springer 36:1505–1521CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cowling A, Hall P, Phillips M (1996) Bootstrap confidence regions for the intensity of a Poisson point process. J Am Stat Assoc 91:1516–1524CrossRef Cowling A, Hall P, Phillips M (1996) Bootstrap confidence regions for the intensity of a Poisson point process. J Am Stat Assoc 91:1516–1524CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Edwards DC, McKee TB (1997) Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Climatol. Report 97–2, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado Edwards DC, McKee TB (1997) Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Climatol. Report 97–2, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Zurück zum Zitat Fraisse CW, Cabrera VE, Breuer NE, Baez J, Quispe J, Matos E (2008) El Niño—southern oscillation influences on soybean yields in Eastern Paraguay. Int J Climatol 28:1399–1407CrossRef Fraisse CW, Cabrera VE, Breuer NE, Baez J, Quispe J, Matos E (2008) El Niño—southern oscillation influences on soybean yields in Eastern Paraguay. Int J Climatol 28:1399–1407CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Girardin MP, Mudelsee M (2008) Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity. Ecol Appl, Ecol Soc Am 18(2):391–406CrossRef Girardin MP, Mudelsee M (2008) Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity. Ecol Appl, Ecol Soc Am 18(2):391–406CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Grimm AM (2004) How do La Niña events disturb the summer monsoon system in Brazil? Clim Dyn 22:123–138CrossRef Grimm AM (2004) How do La Niña events disturb the summer monsoon system in Brazil? Clim Dyn 22:123–138CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Grimm AM, Barros VR, Doyle ME (2000) Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 13:35–58CrossRef Grimm AM, Barros VR, Doyle ME (2000) Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 13:35–58CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Guttman NB (1998) Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the standardized precipitation index. J Am Water Resour Assoc (JAWRA) 34:113–121CrossRef Guttman NB (1998) Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the standardized precipitation index. J Am Water Resour Assoc (JAWRA) 34:113–121CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Guttman NB (1999) Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. J Am Water Resour Assoc (JAWRA) 35(2):311–322CrossRef Guttman NB (1999) Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. J Am Water Resour Assoc (JAWRA) 35(2):311–322CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hayes M, Wilhite DA, Svoboda M, Vanyarkho O (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:429–438CrossRef Hayes M, Wilhite DA, Svoboda M, Vanyarkho O (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:429–438CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lee SM, Byun HR, Tanaka HL (2012) Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought occurrences over Japan. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 51:1087–1098CrossRef Lee SM, Byun HR, Tanaka HL (2012) Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought occurrences over Japan. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 51:1087–1098CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lloyd-Hughes B (2002) The long-range predictability of European drought. Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. University of London, England Lloyd-Hughes B (2002) The long-range predictability of European drought. Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. University of London, England
Zurück zum Zitat Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA (2002) European drought climatology and prediction using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). 8.11 In 13th conference on applied meteorology Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA (2002) European drought climatology and prediction using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). 8.11 In 13th conference on applied meteorology
Zurück zum Zitat Masuda T, Goldsmith P (2009a) Produção mundial. Área plantada, produtividade e projeções em longo prazo, Boletim de Pesquisa de Soja 2009 – Fundação MT, Editora Central de Texto Carrion ET Carracedo Editores Associados, pág. 45–57 Masuda T, Goldsmith P (2009a) Produção mundial. Área plantada, produtividade e projeções em longo prazo, Boletim de Pesquisa de Soja 2009 – Fundação MT, Editora Central de Texto Carrion ET Carracedo Editores Associados, pág. 45–57
Zurück zum Zitat Masuda T, Goldsmith P (2009b) World soybean production: area harvested, yield, and long-term projections. Int Food Agribus Manage Assoc (IAMA). Int Food Agribus Manage Rev 12(4):143 Masuda T, Goldsmith P (2009b) World soybean production: area harvested, yield, and long-term projections. Int Food Agribus Manage Assoc (IAMA). Int Food Agribus Manage Rev 12(4):143
Zurück zum Zitat McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology, American Meteorology Society, pp 179–184 McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology, American Meteorology Society, pp 179–184
Zurück zum Zitat Mudelsee M (2011) The bootstrap in climate risk analysis. In: Kropp JP, Schellnhuber HJ (eds) Extremis: disruptive events trends in climate and hydrology. Springer, Berlin, pp 45–58 Mudelsee M (2011) The bootstrap in climate risk analysis. In: Kropp JP, Schellnhuber HJ (eds) Extremis: disruptive events trends in climate and hydrology. Springer, Berlin, pp 45–58
Zurück zum Zitat Mudelsee M, Borngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grunewald U (2003) No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425:166–169CrossRef Mudelsee M, Borngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grunewald U (2003) No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425:166–169CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mudelsee M, Borngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grunewald U (2004) Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: role of cyclone pathway Zugstrasse Vb. J Geophys Res 109(D23):D23101. doi:10.1029/2004JD005034 Mudelsee M, Borngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grunewald U (2004) Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: role of cyclone pathway Zugstrasse Vb. J Geophys Res 109(D23):D23101. doi:10.​1029/​2004JD005034
Zurück zum Zitat Mudelsee M, Deutsch M, Borngen M, Tetzlaff G (2006) Trends in flood risk of the River Werra (Germany) over the past 500 years. Hydrol Sci J 818–833 Mudelsee M, Deutsch M, Borngen M, Tetzlaff G (2006) Trends in flood risk of the River Werra (Germany) over the past 500 years. Hydrol Sci J 818–833
Zurück zum Zitat Penalba O, Vargas W (2001) Propiedades de déficits y excesos de precipitación en zonas agropecuarias. Meteorologica 26:39–55 Penalba O, Vargas W (2001) Propiedades de déficits y excesos de precipitación en zonas agropecuarias. Meteorologica 26:39–55
Zurück zum Zitat Podestá G, Letson D, Messina C, Royce F, Ferreyra RA, Jones J, Hansen J, Llovet I, Grondona M, O’Brien JJ (2002) Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience. Agric Syst 74:371–392CrossRef Podestá G, Letson D, Messina C, Royce F, Ferreyra RA, Jones J, Hansen J, Llovet I, Grondona M, O’Brien JJ (2002) Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience. Agric Syst 74:371–392CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ravelo AC (2000) Agroclimatic characterization of extreme droughts in the Pampas region of Argentina. Revista de la Facultad de Agronomía (Universidad de Buenos Aires) 20(2):187–192. ISSN 0325-9250 Ravelo AC (2000) Agroclimatic characterization of extreme droughts in the Pampas region of Argentina. Revista de la Facultad de Agronomía (Universidad de Buenos Aires) 20(2):187–192. ISSN 0325-9250
Zurück zum Zitat Rossi G (2003) Requisites for a drought watch system. In: Rossi G et al (eds) Tools for drought mitigation in Mediterranean regions. Kluwer Academic Publishing, Dordrecht, pp 147–157CrossRef Rossi G (2003) Requisites for a drought watch system. In: Rossi G et al (eds) Tools for drought mitigation in Mediterranean regions. Kluwer Academic Publishing, Dordrecht, pp 147–157CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Santos JF, Portela MM (2010) Caracterização de secas em bacias hidrográficas de Portugal Continental: aplicação do índice de precipitação padronizada, SPI, a séries de precipitação e de escoamento. 10º Congresso da Água, 18 pp., Associação Portuguesa dos Recursos Hídricos (APRH), Alvor Santos JF, Portela MM (2010) Caracterização de secas em bacias hidrográficas de Portugal Continental: aplicação do índice de precipitação padronizada, SPI, a séries de precipitação e de escoamento. 10º Congresso da Água, 18 pp., Associação Portuguesa dos Recursos Hídricos (APRH), Alvor
Zurück zum Zitat Santos JF, Pulido-Calvo I, Portela MM (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal. Water Resour Res 46(3) Santos JF, Pulido-Calvo I, Portela MM (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal. Water Resour Res 46(3)
Zurück zum Zitat Santos JF, Portela MM, Naghettini M, Matos JP, Silva AT (2013) Precipitation thresholds for drought recognition: a complementary use of the SPI. In: 7th International conference on river basin management including all aspects of hydrology, ecology, environmental management, flood plains and wetlands, RBM13, Wessex Institute, New Forest, UK Santos JF, Portela MM, Naghettini M, Matos JP, Silva AT (2013) Precipitation thresholds for drought recognition: a complementary use of the SPI. In: 7th International conference on river basin management including all aspects of hydrology, ecology, environmental management, flood plains and wetlands, RBM13, Wessex Institute, New Forest, UK
Zurück zum Zitat Sheffield J, Wood EF (2008) Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn. 31:79–105. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z Sheffield J, Wood EF (2008) Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn. 31:79–105. doi:10.​1007/​s00382-007-0340-z
Zurück zum Zitat Silva AT, Portela MM, Naghettini M (2012) Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(1):241–254CrossRef Silva AT, Portela MM, Naghettini M (2012) Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(1):241–254CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Silverman BW (1986) Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. In: Monographs on statistics and applied probability, vol 26. Chapman & Hall/CRC Silverman BW (1986) Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. In: Monographs on statistics and applied probability, vol 26. Chapman & Hall/CRC
Zurück zum Zitat Szalai S, Szinell C (2000) Comparison of two drought indices for drought monitoring in Hungary—a case study. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 161–166, 325 pp Szalai S, Szinell C (2000) Comparison of two drought indices for drought monitoring in Hungary—a case study. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 161–166, 325 pp
Zurück zum Zitat Tallaksen LM, Van Lanen HA (2004) Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater, vol 48. Elsevier Science Limited Tallaksen LM, Van Lanen HA (2004) Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater, vol 48. Elsevier Science Limited
Zurück zum Zitat Tate EL, Gustard A (2000) Drought definition: a hydrological perspective. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 23–48, 325 pp Tate EL, Gustard A (2000) Drought definition: a hydrological perspective. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 23–48, 325 pp
Zurück zum Zitat Vogt JV, Somma F (2000) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 325 pp Vogt JV, Somma F (2000) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 325 pp
Zurück zum Zitat Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int 10(3):111–120CrossRef Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int 10(3):111–120CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Analysis of Temporal Variability of Droughts in Southern Paraguay and Northern Argentina (1961–2011)
verfasst von
Maria Manuela Portela
Artur Tiago Silva
João Filipe dos Santos
Julián Baez Benitez
Carlos Frank
José Miguel Reichert
Copyright-Jahr
2014
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04489-7_3