Analysis of the Spatial Variation and Identification of Factors Affecting the Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on the Cloud Model

To objectively analyze the effect of the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) on sustainable regional development, a case study of Heilongjiang Province, China, is conducted. With a focus on the coordinated development of the water resources system, 16 indices are selected to establish an index-based WRCC evaluation system. In addition, based on the index values, initial values are obtained using a fuzzy combined weighting method. The WRCC evaluation levels are objectively generated using cloud model, and the temporal and spatial evolution of the WRCC in the study area is analyzed. The obstacle degree is used to analyze quantitatively the restraint relationship of each index to the carrying capacity. The present study classifies the WRCC into five evaluation levels: level I ([0.01, 0.21]), level II ([0.21, 0.37]), level III ([0.37, 0.47]), level IV ([0.47, 0.63]), and level V ([0.63, 0.82]). When determining the WRCC of each of the 13 observation points, the trend is consistent with both social and economic development, indicating that the evaluation criteria have a high degree of credibility. The main influencing factors of the WRCC also change, between 1999 and 2007, the irrigation coverage, amount of water resources per unit area, and gross domestic product per capita were the main factors, between 2008 and 2014, the agricultural water pollution index, population density, and percentage of industrial wastewater discharge compliant with consent conditions were the main factors. In addition, between 1999 and 2014, the ecological environment gradually became the main subsystem that limits the WRCC.