Annual Report on Actions to Address Climate Change (2019)

This paper first lays out the latest facts of global climate change, the climate risk features in the major countries and regions in the world, the impacts of climate change on main sectors and regions and the risks of climate change to the world. Then it analyzes the characteristics of climate change in China, its implications to China’s major regions and sectors, and possible climate risks for China. After explaining the concept of risk management for climate change, this paper puts forward some suggestions to strengthen the climate risk management: first, we should value and strengthen China’s adaptation ability to climate change, especially to extreme weather and climate events; second, we should strengthen basic researches on climate change and natural disasters; third, we should demonstrate and roll out disaster prevention and reduction technologies in disaster-prone areas, poverty-stricken areas and major national strategic areas; and fourth, we should set up a system and adopt guaranteeing measures for climate change risk management.

This paper evaluates the performance of 169 Chinese cities in 2017 using the Green and Low-carbon City Evaluation Index (the Low-carbon Index) developed by the Research Institute for Eco-civilization of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The evaluation finds that: first, most cities improved their green and low-carbon development levels and seven of them even scored 90 points or above; second, after years of implementation of the low-carbon pilot program, low-carbon pilot cities scored higher than non-pilot cities in the Low-carbon Index, and most of the top-ranking cities in the four city groups were low-carbon pilots; third, industrial cities differed from each other the most in terms of low-carbon development level; fourth, cities in eastern China outperformed western and central cities. At the end of this paper, the evaluation team puts forward suggestions to promote low-carbon development: first, low-carbon pilot reform should be further pushed ahead with more city-specific guidance provided to pilot cities; second, a low-carbon evaluation index system should be developed to further encourage low-carbon development; third, a synergy should be created between low-carbon development and quality regional development; fourth, the accounting system should be improved to cover all urban energy consumption and carbon emissions.

After a brief review of the history about how the legal framework of global climate governance is established, this paper analyzes the main content of the Rulebook of the Paris Agreement and summarizes its main characteristics: first, there are fewer differences between the responsibilities of developed countries and those of developing countries; second, the rules are stricter and more legally binding on Parties; and third, top-down “hard laws” are making a strong comeback. The Rulebook is expected to help implement the measures and policies in the Paris Agreement, but there is still a huge gap between the potential outcome of the current global climate governance system and the target in the Paris Agreement, which is why the world is still faced with severe challenges such as tremendous pressure on carbon emissions during the post-Paris era. In the face of the new situation and new challenges, China needs to continue to promote the implementation of the Rulebook and lead by example; step up domestic efforts to promote ecological development and lead the global trend of low-carbon transition; strengthen climate governance cooperation with developed countries especially with the European Union and its member states; and enhance south-south climate cooperation to promote global ecological development.

Climate change has led to more frequent occurrence of disasters, posing long-term threats to human socioeconomic systems. To reduce adverse impacts and loss and damage associated with climate change, as well as enhance response capacity and outcome, the international community has been taking adaptation measures and risk management approaches. Adaptation and loss and damage are important issues in climate risk management in the UNFCCC. Since 2018, Governments have been focusing on how scientific approaches can help improve risk management of climate disasters, especially risk monitoring and evaluation in developing countries. They have been working with the academic circle to find a new risk management mode. China is facing multiple challenges as it not only needs to tackle the difficult tasks of environment protection and social development, but also needs to manage climate risks. In response to this, the present paper suggests that China should formulate technical regulations and standards for climate risk management, boost efficiency in cross-region and cross-department cooperation, improve capacity in building indicator systems for monitoring and evaluation, and enhance the overall level of scientific and technological services.

The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) was convened in the Polish city Katowice in December 2018. The CMA adopted a set of detailed rules of the Paris Agreement, which enshrine the guidance on the features, information and accounting for National Determined Contributions (NDCs). The guidance establishes bottom-up and self-defined arrangements, reflects the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, allows the inclusion of components other than mitigation in the NDCs, and provides adequate time for the Parties to apply the rules. The NDC guidance will strongly affect China’s future implementation of the Paris Agreement and its negotiations in the global arena. After a comparative analysis between China's submitted NDCs and the guidance, this paper identifies their differences, and suggests that China needs to provide, in its second and subsequent NDCs, more complete and detailed information in seven areas, including especially quantifiable information on the reference point, time frame, scope and coverage, planning processes, assumptions and methodological approaches. Besides, in updating its NDCs in 2020, China should also consider the dynamics at home and abroad such as the call for “boosting ambition” at the 2019 Climate Action Summit, and respond them with notable strategies.

Transparency is extremely important in global environment governance, especially in climate governance. This paper reviews the definition of transparency, its development in global climate governance, and existing practices at the country level and at the global level. The “modalities, procedures and guidelines” adopted at the Katowice Climate Conference in late 2018 have established rules for enhanced transparency framework for Parties to observe since 2020. Countries have correspondingly set up legal institutions for transparency. China has also built up a three-tier GHG statistical and accounting system at the national, local and enterprise level. Based on a thorough identification of potential risks in climate change decision-making, this paper concludes that enhanced transparency can contribute to effective decisions by enhancing mutual confidence in global governance, setting targets for action and assessing their progress, identifying key areas for action, and exchanging good practices.

To assist Parties with their mitigation targets under NDCs, and continuously enhance ambition of mitigation action, the Article 6 of the Paris Agreement offers Parties two market mechanisms: voluntary cooperative approaches and a sustainable development mechanism. Due to the diversity in NDCs and uncertainty of future mitigation actions, designing and implementing the market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement is faced with huge risks and challenges. This paper analyzes and identifies major potential risk factors in the designing of the market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement, and analyzes sources and possible impacts of those risks from the perspective of robust accounting, additionality assessment and enhancement of Parties’ mitigation ambition. To reduce negative impacts caused by risks in the design and implementation of the market mechanisms on global mitigation actions, this paper suggests that we should build a robust accounting system, consider NDC commitments in additionality assessment, and ensure that the market mechanisms can contribute to enhancing Parties’ mitigation ambition by setting market access requirements.

There have been new trends after the Cold War in global security: while military threats have further declined, non-traditional security threats such as climate change are rising steeply. IPCC’s assessment reports have confirmed the global warming trend. Climate disasters and the consequent regional conflicts may cause catastrophes in the human society, thus posing serious threats to international peace and security. The UN has been pushing ahead global governance in non-traditional security issues including climate change. Since 2007, the UN Security Council has held four debates on climate security with the endeavor to push for an international consensus, adding new momentum in global efforts to address climate change. China, as a permanent member of the Security Council and the largest GHG emitter in the world, is facing greater pressure on mitigation and providing financial support. However, to demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major country and take the lead in addressing global climate change, China should (1) actively participate, promote and lead climate security debates; (2) cooperate with other countries to address climate risks; (3) speed up the domestic transition towards a green and low-carbon development paradigm; (4) accelerate the construction of a climate adaptive society.

This paper reviews the latest development of China’s local pilot carbon markets, Voluntary GHG Emission Reduction Trading Program, and its national carbon market. It discusses the major risks facing the carbon market system, and makes targeted suggestions, including: balancing between the role of government and market, ensuring smooth transition from local pilot carbon markets to the national carbon market, coordinating policies and mechanisms, and narrowing the gap between regions and sectors.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are one of the key solutions for global energy transition. As the renewable energy’s share in energy consumption continues to grow, replacing traditional fuel vehicles with EVs can effectively contribute to energy saving, carbon emission reduction, air pollution control and energy security. Most of the developments in the EV markets across the world occurred in the past decade, a time when China becomes the biggest market and the biggest driver of global EV markets. Along the development of China’s EV market, which can be divided into three stages, incentive policies, both direct and indirect ones, have played a critical role. The primary direct incentive policy—EV purchase subsidies—has directly impacted the development of global EV markets. Since the purchase subsidies are going to be phased out, indirect incentive policies including building charging infrastructure should be improved in the short term; and more new policies, such as the dual-credit policy, and the policy of inter-sectoral integration, should be adopted in the long term to boost EV development in China.

As global climate change intensifies, climate disasters occur more frequently and more strongly, threatening the survival of humanity. Climate risk insurance, with its special role in dispersing climate risks and reducing losses, is regarded as an innovative means to manage climate disaster risks. At first, this paper systematically reviews the development of climate risk insurance in China in the past seventy years since the country’s founding. Then, after summarizing the current situation of weather risk insurance for agriculture and catastrophe insurance, this paper points out the challenges in climate risk insurance, including lack of perfect policies, insurance types, infrastructure and public awareness. Finally, the paper suggests that China needs to establish a climate risk sharing mechanism and a multi-level climate risk management system in light of its national conditions, strengthen the infrastructure of climate risk insurance and technological innovation, step up efforts to build a supporting system for the climate risk insurance market, and open more funding channels such as reinsurance, to effectively control risk and facilitate the healthy development of climate risk insurance in China.

To build the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (hereinafter referred to as “the Grater Bay Area” or “the GBA”) into a world’s first-class bay area and city cluster is one of the major strategic goals of China. Based on the meteorological monitoring data and the simulation results of the climate patterns of the past nearly one hundred years in the GBA, this paper analyzes, in a systematic way, the climate and ecological characteristics, facts of climate change and extreme weather and climate events, climate disasters and climate risks, climate trends in the upcoming thirty years, climate and ecological challenges, as well as climate adaptation strategies in the Greater Bay Area. The GBA is endowed with unique climate and ecological advantages: it is warm and rainy with multiple climate types and good vegetation condition. Yet, it faces climate risks too, as it often suffers from climate disasters and is situated in a climatically vulnerable region at low latitudes. During the past sixty years, the GBA has witnessed warmer and more humid climate, greater short-duration rainfall intensity, stronger typhoons, and more rapid sea-level rise. Climate disasters and climate risks will be even more severe in the upcoming thirty years. In order to prevent and reduce disasters and adapt to climate change, the GBA authorities should take concrete actions, including taking advantage of climate resources, enhancing the capacity of climate disaster and risk management and adapting cities to climate change.

In recent years, with global temperature rise, extreme weather and climate events, especially high temperature and droughts, occur more frequently, and as a result, forest fires too. Studies show that, climate warming increases the amount of flammable materials in forests, prolongs the fire season, and raises the frequency of lightning fires and wildfires. The climate in China’s main forest areas has become notably warmer and drier. Forest fire potential increases considerably in recent years too. Yet, the number of fires and the total burned area in the past decade have declined, thanks to the strict and full implementation of the forest fire prevention and management strategies and the philosophy of forest protection and green development in China. According to the simulations, climate warming will continue both in China and in the world, leading to more frequent occurrence of dry thunderstorms, increased number of days with forest fire alert, higher fire risks, and greater challenges in forest fire prevention. Therefore, we must strengthen studies on the impacts of climate change on forest fires, improve the monitoring, prediction and alert system for forest fires, and raise public awareness and knowledge of forest fire prevention.

Invited by the UN Secretary-General, China, together with New Zealand, co-leads the 2019 Climate Action Summit’s Nature-based Solutions (NbS) action area. NbS are integration and enhancement of multiple existing efforts in climate change. Recognizing the value of NbS and enhancing its implementation can significantly contribute to global climate action and ambition. As a co-lead of the NbS action track, China is given a precious opportunity to call for construction of global ecological civilization and provide leadership in global environment and climate governance, though at the meantime, it also faces challenges in defending its national interests, coordinating domestic efforts, networking with other countries and organizations and attracting publicity. Thus, while co-leading the NbS action track, China should create a positive and facilitating atmosphere, ensure Parties’ understand NbS as a general concept without focusing too much in specific areas, intensify cooperation with stakeholders, promote recognition of NbS in political agenda, and make mid-and long-term implementation plans to deliver a comprehensive, balanced, and ambitious outcome at the Summit. China should also take the opportunity to introduce its philosophies to the world to demonstrate its willingness of taking due responsibilities and leadership.

Being the most influential multi-sport event in the world, the Olympic Games creates an increasingly important demonstration effect on the major sectors other than sports in social development. Actively addressing climate change has become an internal requirement for the Olympic Games, which is why the most recent Olympic Games all attached great importance to carbon emission management and adopted a series of targeted low-carbon measures. Beijing and Zhangjiakou are striving to fulfill their commitments made during the bidding process of Beijing 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games of hosting a low-carbon Olympic Games while actively transitioning towards a low-carbon development path with multiple low-carbon management measures. The pursuit of the two goals at the same time will create a synergy and help the two cities to promote low-carbon philosophies and showcase carbon emission mitigation outcomes on a larger scale.