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Erschienen in: Environmental Management 5/2017

13.09.2017

Application of an Original Wildfire Smoke Health Cost Benefits Transfer Protocol to the Western US, 2005–2015

verfasst von: Benjamin A. Jones, Robert P. Berrens

Erschienen in: Environmental Management | Ausgabe 5/2017

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Abstract

Recent growth in the frequency and severity of US wildfires has led to more wildfire smoke and increased public exposure to harmful air pollutants. Populations exposed to wildfire smoke experience a variety of negative health impacts, imposing economic costs on society. However, few estimates of smoke health costs exist and none for the entire Western US, in particular, which experiences some of the largest and most intense wildfires in the US. The lack of cost estimates is troublesome because smoke health impacts are an important consideration of the overall costs of wildfire. To address this gap, this study provides the first time series estimates of PM2.5 smoke costs across mortality and several morbidity measures for the Western US over 2005–2015. This time period includes smoke from several megafires and includes years of record-breaking acres burned. Smoke costs are estimated using a benefits transfer protocol developed for contexts when original health data are not available. The novelty of our protocol is that it synthesizes the literature on choices faced by researchers when conducting a smoke cost benefit transfer. On average, wildfire smoke in the Western US creates $165 million in annual morbidity and mortality health costs.

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Fußnoten
1
“Reduce Wildfire Risks or Pay More for Fire Disasters,” April 16, 2015. Developed and supported by the IAWF, Association for Fire Ecology, and The Nature Conservancy.
 
2
For our purposes here, we define the Western US as the 11-state contiguous region consisting of Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico.
 
3
There are several studies of smoke costs for specific areas or cities in the West (e.g., Richardson et al. 2012; Moeltner et al. 2013; Jones et al. 2016), but none that aggregate over the entire region and over time.
 
4
WTP to avoid wildfire smoke exposure can be obtained from several sources, including, observations of costly actions individuals take during a smoke event (e.g., purchases of air purifiers or face masks), public surveys of people exposed to wildfire smoke, or public surveys of the general public that ask respondents how much they would be willing to pay for various hypothetical reductions in smoke exposure.
 
5
The extant literature contains explanations of particular choices made for particular smoke cost assessments, but generally does not explain the range of choices available (including those paths not taken) or the strengths or weaknesses of different decisions. Since benefits transfer can be highly sensitive to the choice of inputs, we see utility in discussions of choices of the analyst.
 
6
Kriging, inverse distance weighting, and Voronoi Neighbor Averaging are examples of proximity-based assessments or statistical interpolation techniques, which are premised on the idea that an individual’s exposure is a weighted function of their distance from monitoring sites.
 
7
CO = carbon monoxide; SO2 = sulfur dioxide; NO2 = nitrogen dioxide. PM10 and PM2.5 are particulates less than 10 microns and 2.5 microns in diameter, respectively. By comparison, an average strand of human hair is 40–50 microns in diameter.
 
8
Modeled predictions, on the other hand, can provide richer estimates of smoke exposures from wildfires, allowing more minor air quality impacts to be captured in the cost analysis.
 
9
Predictions from non-wildfire air quality models such as CMAQ could also be used to estimate ∆Pollut following the framework in decisions #2-3. The difference would be that instead of using observations from monitored sites, predicted pollution concentrations from the model would be used to identify smoke event periods and to construct counterfactuals, such as on a grid cell basis.
 
10
For additional discussion on CR functions and their use in estimating air pollution-related health effects, see Appendix C of RTI International (2015).
 
11
Additional background information is available in the BenMAP-CE user manual and appendices (RTI International 2015) and in Davidson et al. (2007).
 
12
Voronoi Neighbor Averaging uses an algorithm that interpolates air quality at every population grid cell by first identifying the set of monitors that best surround the center of the grid cell. It then calculates an inverse-distance weighted average of data from the neighboring sites. This interpolation method is commonly used in the BenMAP application literature (e.g., Davidson et al. 2007; Ding et al. 2016) and has been recommended over other methods (Chen et al. 2004).
 
13
VSL is the dollar amount of money that a population of interest would be willing to pay for a marginal change in the likelihood of death. Equivalently, it is a metric of society’s willingness to pay for a risk reduction benefit. By multiplying the VSL by estimated smoke-induced mortality, we can capture the dollar costs associated with wildfire smoke exposure.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Application of an Original Wildfire Smoke Health Cost Benefits Transfer Protocol to the Western US, 2005–2015
verfasst von
Benjamin A. Jones
Robert P. Berrens
Publikationsdatum
13.09.2017
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Environmental Management / Ausgabe 5/2017
Print ISSN: 0364-152X
Elektronische ISSN: 1432-1009
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0930-4

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