State and local governments plan for development of most land vulnerable to rising sealevel along the US Atlantic coast*

J G Titus; D E Hudgens; D L Trescott; M Craghan; W H Nuckols; C H Hershner; J M Kassakian; C J Linn; P G Merritt; T M McCue; J F O’Connell; J Tanski; J Wang

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044008

The following article is Open access

State and local governments plan for development of most land vulnerable to rising sea level along the US Atlantic coast^*

J G Titus¹, D E Hudgens², D L Trescott³, M Craghan⁴, W H Nuckols⁵, C H Hershner⁶, J M Kassakian², C J Linn⁷, P G Merritt⁸, T M McCue⁹, J F O'Connell¹⁰, J Tanski¹¹ and J Wang¹²

Published 27 October 2009 • Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 4, Number 4 Citation J G Titus et al 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 044008 DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044008

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This article is corrected by 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 041001

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Author affiliations

¹ US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA

² Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA

³ Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, 1926 Victoria Avenue, Fort Myers, FL 33901, USA

⁴ Middle Atlantic Center for Geography and Environmental Studies, Manasquan, NJ 08736, USA

⁵ W H Nuckols Consulting, 531 Sunset Road, Annapolis, MD 21403, USA

⁶ Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA

⁷ Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, 190 North Independence Mall West, Philadelphia, PA 19106-1520, USA

⁸ Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council, 421 SW Camden Avenue, Stuart, FL 34994, USA

⁹ East Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 631 North Wymore Road Suite 100, Maitland, FL 32751, USA

¹⁰ Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Sea Grant Program, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

¹¹ New York Sea Grant Program, 146 Suffolk Hall, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5002, USA

¹² Pyramid Systems, Incorporated, 9302 Lee Highway, Fairfax, VA 22031, USA

¹³ Current address: University of Hawaii, Sea Grant College Program, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA

Dates

Received 7 April 2009
Accepted 7 July 2009
Published 27 October 2009

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Abstract

Rising sea level threatens existing coastal wetlands. Overall ecosystems could often survive by migrating inland, if adjacent lands remained vacant. On the basis of 131 state and local land use plans, we estimate that almost 60% of the land below 1 m along the US Atlantic coast is expected to be developed and thus unavailable for the inland migration of wetlands. Less than 10% of the land below 1 m has been set aside for conservation. Environmental regulators routinely grant permits for shore protection structures (which block wetland migration) on the basis of a federal finding that these structures have no cumulative environmental impact. Our results suggest that shore protection does have a cumulative impact. If sea level rise is taken into account, wetland policies that previously seemed to comply with federal law probably violate the Clean Water Act.

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Footnotes

*
The opinions expressed in this letter do not necessarily reflect the official positions of either the US Environmental Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, any state or national Sea Grant Program, or the US Government.

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State and local governments plan for development of most land vulnerable to rising sea level along the US Atlantic coast*