Skip to main content
main-content

Tipp

Weitere Artikel dieser Ausgabe durch Wischen aufrufen

12.03.2020 | Original Research

Assessing the Risk of Car Crashes in Road Networks

Zeitschrift:
Social Indicators Research
Autoren:
Riccardo Borgoni, Andrea Gilardi, Diego Zappa
Wichtige Hinweise

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Abstract

Worldwide, thousands of people die annually in highway-related crashes and millions are injured. Hence, car wrecks have very high direct social costs but also relevant indirect economic effects such as an adverse impact on the burden of hospitalization and an increased health expenditure. The analysis of car crash data has long been used as a basis for influencing highway and vehicle designs but also, and perhaps more importantly, to support local authorities in allocating resources aimed at improving road safety and making political decisions to mitigate road risks in the most exposed areas. In this paper, we show how a range of information collected from open data sources concerning the structure of the road network (road typology, traffic lights, pedestrian crossings, etc.), socio-demographical dimensions and crash history can be proficiently used for this aim. We adopt a dynamic Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model to define two indexes. The first index, derived from the counting component of the ZIP model, measures how prone to crash risk a segment is. The other, derived by the zero component of the ZIP model, represents a measure of the likelihood of segments to not be exposed to crashes. Focussing on the city of Milan (Northern Italy), we found that the most relevant determinant of road risk proneness is crash history and that structural characteristics of the road are much more relevant than demographic information. Finally, we show how this information can be spatialized to produce maps of crash proneness and predict future spatial risk indexes.

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten

Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 69.000 Bücher
  • über 500 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Umwelt
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Testen Sie jetzt 30 Tage kostenlos.

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 58.000 Bücher
  • über 300 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Testen Sie jetzt 30 Tage kostenlos.

Literatur
Über diesen Artikel

Premium Partner

    Bildnachweise