Decision-making is often connected with non-numeric, inexact and incomplete expert information.
We consider assessment of events probabilities with the help of the decision taking support system ASPID-3W.
The formulas for calculating risks include the probabilities of initiating events, which should be evaluated either by the statistical data or by expert information.
In Risks management technologies when building LP-risk models one has to assess the probabilities of events on the basis of expert information in the following cases: in LP-models of the LP-modeling class, which do not use statistical data; the probabilities of initiating events are given; LP-models of the LP-classification, LP-efficiency and LP-forecasting classes, using statistical data, in problems, if the statistical data are not enough.
The method of summary indices (MSI) by N. Hovanov allows obtain the assessment by expert information from a number of experts. The method employs non-numerical, inaccurate and incomplete information.
The assessment of the events probabilities and losses from the appearance of events is performed by several experts who use expert information. The experts’ assessment is combined taking into account the weights of the experts themselves. One can also use statistical data as the information from another expert.
The method includes: the synthesis of estimate of events probabilities and the analysis of estimate of events probabilities and losses from the occurrence of events.