Introduction
Study Areas
Ria de Aveiro | Mar Menor | Tyligulskyi Liman | Vistula Lagoon | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Inflow to lagoon [hm³ a−1] | 2140 | 8.7 | 23 | 4035 |
Area [km²] | 3556 | 1380 | 5240 | 20730 |
Altitude range [m a.s.l.] | −10 to 1105 | −5 to 1061 | −6 to 254 | −27 to 308 |
Av. precipitation [mm a−1] | 1100 | 337 | 515 | 750 |
Average temperature [°C] | 14 | 25 | 10 | 8 |
Major River/s | Vouga | Albujon | Tyligul | Pregolya and Pasleka |
Major land use (share in %) | Forest (56) | Agriculture (82) | Agriculture (80) | Agriculture (67) |
Major soil type (share in %) | Cambisol (73) | Cambisol (76) | Chernozem (77) | Cambisol (38) |
Ria de Aveiro
Mar Menor
Tyligulsyki Liman
Vistula Lagoon
Materials and Methods
The Study Framework
The Eco-Hydrological Model Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)
Catchment | Q [m3 s−1] | NSE | PBIAS | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rivers | Obs. | SWIM | Period | ||
Ria de Aveiro | |||||
Águeda | 6.5 | 6.6 | 01/02–12/05 | 0.8 | 5.6 |
Cértima | 4.6 | 5.0 | 01/02–12/05 | 0.8 | −8.0 |
Vouga | 22.8 | 22.6 | 01/02–12/05 | 0.8 | 0 |
Mar Menor (biweekly time step) | r² | ||||
Albujon | 5.5 | 5.5 | 10/02–02/04 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Tyligulskyi Liman (monthly time step) | |||||
Tyligul | 0.6 | 0.6 | 01/84–12/88 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Vistula Lagoon | |||||
Pasleka | 18.8 | 17.6 | 01/07–12/09 | 0.7 | −12.9 |
Pregolya | 80.0 | 80.5 | 01/83–12/96 | 0.7 | −0.6 |
Catchment | NO3-N [mg l-1] | NH4-N [mg l-1] | PO4-P [mg l-1] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
River | Obs. | SWIM | Period | Obs. | SWIM | Period | Obs. | SWIM | Period |
Ria de Aveiro | |||||||||
Antua | 4.58 | 5.26 | 01/03–12/09 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 01/02–12/09 | 0.40 | 0.74 | 01/02–12/07 |
Vouga | 1.21 | 1.18 | 01/02–12/09 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 01/06–12/09 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 01/03–12/09 |
NO3-N [t a−1] | NH4-N [t a−1] | PO4-P [t a1] | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Obs. | SWIM | Period | Obs. | SWIM | Period | Obs. | SWIM | Period | |
Mar Menor | |||||||||
Albujon | 154 | 113 | 02/03–02/04 | 35 | 30 | 10/02–02/04 | 2.54 | 2.57 | 10/02–02/04 |
Tyligulskyi Liman | |||||||||
Tyligul | 4.57 | 4.53 | 01/01–12/07 | 2.52 | 2.41 | 01/01–12/07 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 01/01–12/07 |
Vistula Lagoon | |||||||||
Sum of 9 rivers | 4384 | 4540 | 01/80–12/09 | 3024 | 2235 | 01/80–12/09 | 462 | 424 | 01/80–12/09 |
Climate Scenarios
GCM | RCM | Institute | Country | |
---|---|---|---|---|
s1 | HadCM3Q3 | RCA3 | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) | Sweden |
s2 | HadCM3Q0 | HadRM3Q0 | Hadley Center for Climate Predictions and Research (HC) | Great Britain |
s3 | HadCM3Q3 | HadRM3Q3 | Hadley Center for Climate Predictions and Research (HC) | Great Britain |
s4 | HadCM3Q16 | HadRM3Q16 | Hadley Center for Climate Predictions and Research (HC) | Great Britain |
s5 | HadCM3Q16 | RCA3 | Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (4CI) | Northern Ireland |
s6 | HadCM3Q0 | CLM | Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETHZ) | Switzerland |
s7 | ECHAM5-r3 | RACMO2 | Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) | The Netherlands |
s8 | BCM | RCA3 | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) | Sweden |
s9 | ECHAM5-r3 | RCA3 | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) | Sweden |
s10 | ECHAM5-r3 | REMO | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) | Germany |
s11 | ARPEGE | ALADIN RM5.1 | National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM) | France |
s12 | ARPEGE | HIRHAM5 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) | Denmark |
s13 | ECHAM5-r3 | HIRHAM5 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) | Denmark |
s14 | BCM | HIRHAM5 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) | Denmark |
s15 | ECHAM5-r3 | RegCM3 | International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) | Italy |
Ria de Aveiro | Mar Menor | Tyligulsyki Liman | Vistula Lagoon | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P | T | P | T | P | T | P | T | |||||
[mm] | [%] | [°C] | [mm] | [%] | [°C] | [mm] | [%] | [°C] | [mm] | [%] | [°C] | |
s1 | −32 | −3 | 1.2 | 19 | 8 | 1.1 | −23 | −4 | 1.5 | 25 | 3 | 1.2 |
s2 | −74 | −6 | 1.2 | 8 | 3 | 1.1 | 22 | 4 | 2.1 | 15 | 2 | 2.1 |
s3 | −61 | −4 | 1.2 | −25 | −6 | 1.1 | −8 | −2 | 1.8 | 9 | 1 | 1.4 |
s4 | −60 | −6 | 1.7 | −18 | −11 | 1.7 | −11 | −2 | 1.9 | 59 | 8 | 1.8 |
s5 | −43 | −4 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | −22 | −5 | 1.5 | 91 | 11 | 1.4 |
s6 | −82 | −5 | 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | −8 | −2 | 1.6 | 29 | 4 | 1.7 |
s7 | −124 | −7 | 0.8 | −7 | −3 | 0.6 | −52 | −11 | 1.1 | 21 | 3 | 0.8 |
s8 | −282 | −9 | 0.5 | 25 | 15 | 0.4 | −25 | −2 | 0.6 | 72 | 9 | 0.6 |
s9 | −132 | −9 | 0.7 | −11 | −5 | 0.5 | −3 | −1 | 0.8 | 56 | 6 | 0.6 |
s10 | −191 | −8 | 0.8 | −28 | −8 | 0.6 | −45 | −9 | 1.1 | 32 | 4 | 0.8 |
s11 | −12 | −1 | 1.3 | 8 | 4 | 1.1 | −54 | −11 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
s12 | 23 | 3 | 1.2 | 9 | 3 | 1.0 | −43 | −9 | 0.9 | 23 | 3 | 0.7 |
s13 | −104 | −4 | 0.7 | −39 | −11 | 0.5 | 11 | 2 | 0.8 | −15 | −2 | 0.5 |
s14 | −975 | −5 | 0.6 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 73 | 9 | 0.8 |
s15 | −131 | −7 | 0.7 | −12 | −3 | 0.5 | −35 | −5 | 0.9 | 25 | 3 | 0.8 |
Mean | −93 | −6 | 1.0 | −4 | −2 | 0.9 | −20 | −3 | 1.2 | 34 | 4 | 1.1 |
Socio-Economic Scenarios
Changes in [%] | Ria de Aveiro | Mar Menor | Tyligulskyi Liman | Vistula Lagoon | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAU | CRI | MH | SET | BAU | CRI | MH | SET | BAU | CRI | MH | SET | BAU | CRI | MH | SET | |
Agriculture | −11 | −16 | – | −32 | −14 | −30 | 5 | −15 | – | – | −10 | −30 | 1.4 | −10 | 2 | −50 |
Fallow | 300 | 1200 | −100 | 600 | 1500 | 3000 | −100 | 1500 | – | New | – | New | −9 | New | – | New |
Grassland | 180 | 520 | −100 | −10 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 215 | – | −6 | – | −75 | – |
Forest | – | −26 | 3 | 5 | – | −20 | 5 | 10 | – | −50 | 10 | 40 | −3 | −20 | 17 | 86 |
Heather | – | – | – | – | – | – | −30 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
etlands | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | −5 | – | −67 | – |
Point sources | −2 | 7 | −8 | −18 | 16 | −10 | 5 | −11 | −8 | −20 | −50 | −35 | −10 | −30 | −40 | −35 |
Nmin- and P- fertilizer | 5 | −20 | −15 | −20 | – | −20 | −15 | −20 | – | −50 | 500 | 200 | −10 | 100 | 10 | |
Norg - fertilizer | −10 | −20 | 15 | 20 | – | −20 | 15 | 20 | – | 10 | 10 | −10 | – | −10 | 300 | – |
Abstraction | 6 | −30 | 12 | −15 | – | – | – | – | −8 | −30 | −15 | – | – | – | – | |
Discharge | – | – | – | – | 22 | −20 | 7 | −11 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Irrigation | – | – | – | – | −22 | −45 | 5 | −25 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Ponds | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | −50 | −75 | – | – | – | – |
Results
Discharge and Nutrient Loads under Reference Conditions
Impacts on Water Availability
Changes in the average, median, high, and low flows
Changes in seasonal stream flow components
Changes in major water cycle components
Ria de Aveiro | Mar Menor | Tyligulskyi Liman | Vistula Lagoon | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ses only | Combined | Ses only | Combined | Ses only | Combined | Ses only | Combined | ||||||||||
mm a−1 | % | mm a−1 | % | mm a−1 | % | mm a−1 | % | mm a−1 | % | mm a−1 | % | mm a−1 | % | mm a−1 | % | ||
BAU | RUN | 1.33 | 0 | −37.04 | −6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.08 | −15 | 0.61 | 1 | 9.90 | 12 |
GWR | −0.19 | 0 | −55.96 | −6 | −2.03 | −9 | −2.30 | −2 | 0 | 0 | −3.12 | −16 | 0.61 | 1 | 10.23 | 12 | |
ETa | 1.26 | 0 | −5.49 | −1 | −22.95 | −5 | −24.41 | −5 | 0 | 0 | −10.45 | −2 | −0.89 | 0 | 8.96 | 2 | |
ETp | 0.27 | 0 | 68.95 | 7 | −4.05 | 0 | 26.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40.67 | 5 | −0.07 | 0 | 14.90 | 1 | |
CRI | RUN | 2.86 | 1 | −35.52 | −6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | −1.81 | −14 | −4.87 | −5 | 4.42 | 6 |
GWR | 1.00 | 0 | −54.77 | −6 | −3.80 | −16 | −4.06 | −10 | 0.29 | 0 | −2.83 | −15 | −4.89 | −5 | 4.73 | 6 | |
ETa | −2.22 | −1 | −8.98 | −2 | −46.25 | −9 | −47.70 | −9 | −0.64 | 0 | −11.08 | −2 | 2.05 | 0 | 11.90 | 2 | |
ETp | 1.86 | 0 | 70.54 | 7 | −4.71 | 0 | 25.44 | 1 | −3.92 | 0 | 36.74 | 5 | 1.57 | 0 | 16.54 | 2 | |
MH | RUN | −0.11 | 0 | −38.49 | −6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.27 | −4 | −3.35 | −19 | 0.10 | 0 | 9.32 | 12 |
GWR | −0.09 | 0 | −55.86 | −6 | 0.37 | 1 | 0.11 | 10 | −1.33 | −4 | −4.45 | −20 | 1.67 | 0 | 9.72 | 12 | |
ETa | 0.67 | 0 | −6.09 | −2 | 6.16 | 1 | 4.70 | 1 | 3.13 | 1 | −7.32 | −2 | −0.40 | 0 | 11.52 | 2 | |
ETp | −0.17 | 0 | 68.51 | 7 | −3.19 | 0 | 26.97 | 1 | 7.71 | 1 | 48.38 | 6 | 0.10 | 0 | 14.57 | 1 | |
SET | RUN | 4.61 | 1 | −33.76 | −6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3.78 | −12 | −5.86 | −25 | −24.40 | −25 | −15.22 | −17 |
GWR | 0.01 | 0 | −55.76 | −6 | −1.98 | −9 | −2.24 | −1 | −3.89 | −12 | −7.01 | −26 | −24.50 | −25 | −14.88 | −17 | |
ETa | 4.75 | 1 | −2.00 | 0 | −26.02 | −5 | −27.48 | −5 | 5.57 | 1 | −4.88 | −1 | 27.96 | 5 | 37.81 | 7 | |
ETp | 0.51 | 0 | 69.18 | 7 | −4.05 | 0 | 26.10 | 1 | 3.06 | 0 | 43.73 | 6 | 5.00 | 1 | 19.96 | 2 |
Impacts on Nutrients
Changes in major nutrient loads
Changes in major transformation and transportation processes
Ria de Aveiro | Mar Menor | Tyligulskyi Liman | Vistula Lagoon | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ses only | Combined | Ses only | Combined | Ses only | Combined | Ses only | Combined | ||||||||||
kg ha−1 | % | kg ha−1 | % | kg ha−1 | % | kg ha−1 | % | kg ha−1 | % | kg ha−1 | % | kg ha−1 | % | kg ha−1 | % | ||
BAU | N-RUN | 0 | 0 | −0.02 | −14 | −0.05 | −17 | −0.05 | −17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 3 | −0.21 | −6 |
N-MIN | −1.75 | −4 | −1.99 | −4 | −4.50 | −12 | −3.15 | −8 | 0 | 0 | −3.58 | −3 | 0 | 0 | 4.24 | 4 | |
DENIT | −0.79 | −2 | −1.45 | −3 | −19.03 | −14 | −20.26 | −15 | 0 | 0 | −0.80 | −4 | 0.15 | 0 | 1.34 | 3 | |
P-RUN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
P-MIN | −0.18 | −4 | −0.29 | −7 | −0.34 | −13 | −0.33 | −8 | 0 | 0 | −1.59 | −12 | −0.13 | −1 | 0.31 | 2 | |
CRI | N-RUN | −0.01 | −11 | −0.03 | −21 | −0.09 | −31 | −0.09 | −31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.17 | −6 | −0.46 | −14 |
N-MIN | −2.91 | −6 | −3.15 | −6 | −9.47 | −25 | −8.12 | −21 | 0.59 | 0 | −2.99 | −2 | −0.63 | −1 | 3.62 | 4 | |
DENIT | −4.06 | −9 | −4.72 | −10 | −40.16 | −29 | −41.40 | −30 | −0.36 | −1 | −1.15 | −5 | −1.20 | −3 | −0.01 | 0 | |
P-RUN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.01 | 0 | −0.01 | 0 | |
P-MIN | −0.24 | −6 | −0.35 | −8 | −0.70 | −26 | −0.69 | −22 | 0.09 | 1 | −1.50 | −11 | 1.16 | 6 | 1.60 | 9 | |
MH | N-RUN | 0 | 0 | −0.02 | −14 | 0.01 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.06 | 36 | 0.76 | 24 |
N−MIN | 0.19 | 0 | −0.05 | 0 | 1.34 | 3 | 2.69 | 8 | −6.08 | −5 | −9.66 | −7 | 8.72 | 9 | 12.97 | 13 | |
DENIT | −1.35 | −3 | −2.01 | −4 | 6.03 | 4 | 4.80 | 4 | 2.71 | 9 | 1.91 | 5 | 7.78 | 17 | 8.97 | 20 | |
P-RUN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | |
P-MIN | −0.02 | 0 | −0.13 | −3 | 0.05 | 2 | 0.06 | 7 | −0.48 | −4 | −2.07 | −15 | −0.65 | −4 | −0.20 | −1 | |
SET | N-RUN | −0.01 | −15 | −0.03 | −24 | −0.05 | −18 | −0.05 | −18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.65 | −22 | −0.95 | −29 |
N-MIN | −5.14 | −11 | −5.38 | −11 | −5.42 | −14 | −4.06 | −10 | −11.19 | −8 | −14.77 | −11 | −5.73 | −6 | −1.48 | −2 | |
DENIT | −4.91 | −11 | −5.57 | −12 | −22.13 | −16 | −23.37 | −17 | 0.01 | −1 | −0.81 | −4 | 1.47 | 2 | 2.66 | 5 | |
P-RUN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
P-MIN | −0.54 | −13 | −0.65 | −15 | −0.43 | −17 | −0.42 | −12 | −0.74 | −6 | −2.33 | −16 | 5.50 | 29 | 5.94 | 32 |