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Open Access 2022 | Open Access | Buch | 1. Auflage

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Atlas of Global Change Risk of Population and Economic Systems

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This book is open access and illustrates the spatial distribution of the global change risk of population and economic systems with the maps of environment, global climate change, global population and economic systems, and global change risk. The risks of global change are mapped at 0.25 degree grid unit. The risk results and their contribution rates of the world at national level are unprecedentedly derived and ranked. The book can be a good reference for researchers and students in the field of global climate change and natural disaster risk management, as well as risk managers and enterpriser to understand the global change risk of population and economic systems.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Environments

Frontmatter

Open Access

Mapping Environments of the World
Abstract
A regional disaster system is essentially the product of the interaction of humans and nature, which is composed of the disaster-formative environment, exposure, hazard, and disaster losses. It is a dynamic system with complex characteristics on the surface of the earth (Fig. 1) (Shi 1991).
Peijun Shi, Jing’ai Wang, Ying Wang, Tian Liu

Climate Changes

Frontmatter

Open Access

Mapping Temperature Changes
Abstract
Under the background of global warming, extreme temperature events have significantly increased and hit various parts of the globe (Alexander et al. 2006; Piao et al. 2010; Fischer and Knutti 2014; Gao et al. 2019; Qi et al. 2019)—for example, extreme high temperature occurred during the summer of 2010 over Central Europe-Russia (Grumm 2011) and the super cold surge swept across China at the end of 2020 (Zheng et al. 2021). As a serious worldwide challenge, extreme temperature events bring severe damages to public health, agricultural production, and socioeconomic systems (Easterling et al. 2000; Sun et al. 2018; Wang et al. 2019). Therefore, assessing future global temperature changes is crucial for tackling climate change and disaster mitigation and prevention.
Xin Qi, Miaoni Gao, Tao Zhu, Siyu Li, Sicheng He, Jing Yang

Open Access

Mapping Precipitation Changes
Abstract
Compared to the observed changes in temperature, the changes in precipitation show more uncertainty (Hartmann et al. 2013). The IPCC AR5 indicated that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to a global-scale intensification of heavy precipitation since the second half of the twentieth century (IPCC 2013) and the intensity of daily precipitation increases more under the higher warming scenarios (Weber et al. 2018).
Xianghui Kong, Xiaoxin Wang, Huopo Chen, Aihui Wang, Dan Wan, Lianlian Xu, Yue Miao, Ju Huang, Yang Liu, Ruiheng Xie, Yue Chen, Xianmei Lang

Open Access

Mapping Wind Speed Changes
Abstract
Wind variability has a major impact on water cycles, wind energy, and natural hazards and disasters such as hurricanes and typhoons. In the past decades, the global and regional mean near-surface wind speed (sfcWind) has shown a significantly downward trend, especially in the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (Wu et al. 2018). The global mean terrestrial sfcWind has decreased linearly at a rate of 0.08 m s−1 per decade during 1981–2011. Vautard et al. (2010) analyzed changes in sfcWind at stations across the globe and found that 73% of the total stations presented a decrease in the annual mean sfcWind, with linear trends of −0.09,  −0.16,  −0.12, and −0.07 m s−1 per decade in Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, and North America, respectively. In addition, a pronounced reduction in extreme sfcWind has also been observed in Europe and the United States (Yan et al. 2002; Pryor et al. 2012). However, because long-term observational data are lacking in most land areas and oceans, the uncertainty in the long-term trend of sfcWind is high, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere and over oceans.
Rui Mao, Cuicui Shi, Qi Zong, Xingya Feng, Yijie Sun, Yufei Wang, Guohao Liang

Population and Economic System Changes

Frontmatter

Open Access

Mapping Global Population Changes
Abstract
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities is considered as the main cause of global warming (Stocker et al. 2013). The rapid growth of population and economic activities in the twentieth century has brought unprecedented pressure on climate and the environment, and population has become an important topic in climate change research (Min et al. 2011; Diaz and Moore 2017; Forzieri et al. 2017). Accurate and robust predictions of population size and spatial distribution will help to assess the impact of climate change on socioeconomic development, human health, and resource demand and distribution, and provide a scientific basis for designing strategies to control greenhouse gas emissions and developing mitigation and adaptation policies (Lutz and Kc 2011; Field et al. 2014; Gerland et al. 2014).
Yujie Liu, Jie Chen

Open Access

Mapping Global Population Exposure to Heatwaves
Abstract
Global warming has become a severe problem worldwide, where the average global temperature has steadily increased over recent decades, accompanied by the abnormally hot weather (IPCC 2013). Since the 1950s, heatwave events have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration and their impact on human health will also increase under enhanced global warming (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020). Heatwaves have become one of the most serious climate events in the world. Thousands of people have died from exposing to heatwaves in recent years, for instance, the European heatwave of 2003 induced more than 70,000 additional deaths (Robine et al. 2008). Heat-related mortality and morbidity are not only attributed to natural hazards resulting from climate change (Seneviratne et al. 2012). Both climatic factors and socioeconomic factors such as population change and vulnerability of people exposed to heatwaves have impact on the number of deaths caused by heatwaves. Thus, a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of heatwave exposure is conducive to taking targeted measures to reduce the risk in hotspot regions of the world.
Qinmei Han, Wei Xu, Peijun Shi

Open Access

Mapping Global Population Exposure to Rainstorms
Xinli Liao, Junlin Zhang, Wei Xu, Peijun Shi

Open Access

Mapping Global GDP Distribution
Abstract
Socioeconomic projections are crucial in climate change impact, mitigation, and adaptation research and risk assessments for future scenarios.
Fubao Sun, Tingting Wang, Hong Wang

Open Access

Mapping Global GDP Exposure to Drought
Abstract
Accumulative evidences have shown that anthropogenic climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of droughts.
Fubao Sun, Tingting Wang, Hong Wang

Open Access

Mapping Global Crop Distribution
Abstract
The latest special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2018 (Anandhi et al. 2016), estimates a 1.5 °C increase in global temperature in 2040 at the current rate of global warming. Such a rise has serious implications for major cereal crop cultivation: unless crop varieties adapted to higher temperatures become available, the areas suitable for cropping are bound to shift in the future. Therefore, to safeguard food security, we need to predict such changes in spatial and temporal terms, which can intuitively reflect the potential distribution of crops under different climate change scenarios and for different time periods, helping to reduce losses according to local conditions (Deng et al. 2009).
Yaojie Yue, Peng Su, Yuan Gao, Puying Zhang, Ran Wang, Anyu Zhang, Qinghua Jiang, Weidong Ma, Yuantao Zhou, Jing’ai Wang

Open Access

Mapping Global Crop Exposure to Extremely High Temperature
Abstract
The increasing temperature with global warming will have great impacts on major cereal crop cultivation (Peng et al. 2004; Fahad et al. 2019). Among various impacts, the crop exposure to extremely high temperature, which is based on the land suitability for crop cultivation, may ultimately pose a great threat to food security.
Yaojie Yue, Peng Su, Yuan Gao, Puying Zhang, Ran Wang, Anyu Zhang, Qinghua Jiang, Weidong Ma, Yuantao Zhou, Jing’ai Wang

Open Access

Mapping Global Industrial Value Added
Abstract
In the research of identifying the impact of climate change on the industrial economic system, the core step is to overlay climate data and industrial economic data with the same spatiotemporal resolution and perform spatial analysis (Zhao et al. 2017).
Wei Song, Huiyi Zhu, Han Li, Qian Xue, Yuanzhe Liu

Open Access

Mapping Global Road Networks
Abstract
Various studies have put forward different methods for reasonably determining the development scale of regional road networks according to the economic development and traffic conditions of each country, and formed some conventional methods for projecting the future scale of road networks, such as land coefficient method, elastic coefficient method, time series method, connectivity analysis method, and generalized cost method.
Wenxiang Wu, Lingyun Hou

Global Change Risks

Frontmatter

Open Access

Mapping Global Risk of Heatwave Mortality Under Climate Change
Qinmei Han, Weihang Liu, Wei Xu, Peijun Shi

Open Access

Mapping Global Risk of River Flood Mortality
Abstract
Globally, river flooding induced by heavy rainfall frequently causes fatalities every year (Jongman et al. 2015; CERD and UNISDR 2018; CRED 2019). Particularly, heavy rainfall will increase in the future with climate warming (Liao et al. 2019).
Junlin Zhang, Xinli Liao, Wei Xu

Open Access

Mapping Global Risk of GDP Loss to River Floods
Abstract
Globally, river flooding induced by heavy rainfall frequently causes serious economic losses every year.
Junlin Zhang, Xinli Liao, Wei Xu

Open Access

Mapping Global Risk of Crop Yield Under Climate Change
Abstract
Risk of crop yield under climate change refers to the potential changes in crop yield (mean yield, interannual yield variability, and lower extreme yield) caused by climate change.
Weihang Liu, Shuo Chen, Qingyang Mu, Tao Ye, Peijun Shi
Backmatter
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Metadaten
Titel
Atlas of Global Change Risk of Population and Economic Systems
Copyright-Jahr
2022
Verlag
Springer Nature Singapore
Electronic ISBN
978-981-16-6691-9
Print ISBN
978-981-16-6690-2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6691-9