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Über dieses Buch

This book provides an integrated perspective of the automotive market for the next decade. It shows how customers and producers are shaping the market simultaneously and contends that the first steps of the mobility revolution have already been taken. It compels automotive companies to strike new paths to participate in this journey.
The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of the automotive industry, including prevailing business models of OEMs and 'tier-n' automotive suppliers, the competitive environment they are embedded in as well as socio-economic changes affecting future market conditions. Subsequently, elements of the automotive disruption are presented; these enable the provision of novel urban mobility concepts and offer a new source for additional services accompanying the user. A comprehensive insight into consumer behavior, potential automotive business models which can be sustained by 2030, smart city models, transformation strategies, and diverse market penetration scenarios are also provided in the book. It also outlines the challenges and key actions that shape the automotive sector even beyond 2030 as well as knock-on effects across different industries arising from the technological and economic changes in the automotive market are projected.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

1. Introduction to Automotive Disruption and the Urban Mobility Revolution

Abstract
The factor “mobility” is decisive in influencing the social and economic development of a nation. In the last century, the private use of cars has become the norm in large parts of the world and the automotive industry—from tier-n suppliers to globally operating OEMs—has taken a key economic position in many economies. In the twenty-first century, the industry faces new technological (and environmental) developments that will inevitably reshape its business models. Artificial intelligence, Digitalization, and the Internet of Things are just some of the key drivers of automotive disruption. The thesis presents possible phenotypes for mobility and smart city scenarios in 2030 and highlights the underlying business models. It also considers the stakeholders that have a significant influence on the further development of the automotive landscape—what role does the human factor play here? And what are the economic impacts of automated and shared mobility on existing value chains and revenue sources? Answering these questions by taking into account social, economic, financial, and political dimensions will provide the reader with a comprehensive evaluation of the automotive business environment in 2030.
Martin Lempp, Patrick Siegfried

2. Characterization of the Automotive Industry

Abstract
This section looks at the market and competitive profile of the automotive industry and provides insight into where the shaping factors and challenges for the business model of OEMs and suppliers will lie. The automotive industry is characterized by massive initial and sunk costs, as well as far-reaching complexities in global purchasing, supply chain, production, warehousing, and distribution. The “immobility” of the industry, however, has a serious impact on the flexibility of manufacturers to react to short- and medium-term trends. The governmental push for ecological sustainability and the advance of ethical consumerism have existential implications for the entire business model—from consolidation movements to the emergence and strengthening of market incumbents. The shift from product-centric to service-centric mobility also affects OEM–Supplier relationships. This thesis examines various levers—including product depth, innovation cycles, product differentiation, integration depth, sourcing strategies—to optimize the OEM–supplier interface and looks at other societal drivers such as urbanization, changing perceptions of personal mobility, the sharing economy, and ecological awareness.
Martin Lempp, Patrick Siegfried

3. Elements of the Automotive Disruption

Abstract
Disruptive technology-driven developments have greatly changed the nature of customer interaction and the design of the customer experience with new digital touchpoints. Targeted leveraging of data is critical in shaping the shift from a product-centric to a service-centric business model. Connectivity, V2X communication, and the Internet of Things play a key role in the transformation of the automotive industry—especially in the roadmap to fully autonomous driving. But electrification and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) are also shaping automotive disruption. The publication not only examines the premises and hurdles for the further development of the new forms of mobility but also shows which individual and societal benefits—including road safety, access to mobility, traffic efficiency, improved space utilization, decrease in pollution, reduced transportation costs, service improvement—result from them. Furthermore, the impact of digitalization and networking on the classic areas of the value chain is analyzed and possible use cases and development scenarios of “smart” value creation are discussed. The way manufacturers interact with each other and with customers will change fundamentally—digital ecosystems and underlying network effects play an essential role here. This publication looks at the possible implications of this ecosystem model.
Martin Lempp, Patrick Siegfried

4. Urban Mobility Revolution: A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract
The quantitative part of the publication highlights current customer demand patterns and shows—based on a targeted survey of potential customers and their future usage behavior—how these might look in 2030. The aim of the survey is to find out how society views the new developments in the automotive industry and what conclusions market participants should draw from this. Will the spread of autonomous driving be delayed due to reservations about safety, higher purchase prices, or data protection concerns? Which purchase criteria will gain importance in the future? Which customer segments determine the pace of market penetration? Will Mobility-as-a-Service models prevail? How could the disposable time during the use of an autonomous vehicle be used and where can OEMs but also companies from outside the industry start to generate recurring revenues? Based on the results of the survey, the potential future market volume of various forms of mobility is derived for different penetration scenarios and the implications for the existing value creation and revenue models are examined.
Martin Lempp, Patrick Siegfried

5. Business Model 2030: A Metamorphosis of the Automotive Landscape

Abstract
The disruption of the automotive landscape will be accompanied by the conversion of cities into multi-modal smart cities with urban infrastructures that provide the basis for the new advanced forms of mobility. Legislators, municipalities, and manufacturers will need to work together to provide a functioning digital and data-driven infrastructure as the backbone of the smart city. In addition, OEMs must reorient themselves in an increasingly complex competitive landscape that includes new, formerly non-industry players, start-ups, and global IT companies. Forming partnerships and strategic alliances will play a key role in maintaining their competitive capabilities. The extent of value chain integration, i.e., the realignment of the horizontal and vertical depth of one’s own value creation, is crucial for positioning in the market and for determining the accessibility of new revenue sources. Aftersales revenues and recurring revenues for services provided throughout the lifecycle shape the allocation and monetization of revenue pools—both in the automotive sector and in formerly non-branch industries. In an excursus, the legal implications of new insurance models and pricing models are discussed.
Martin Lempp, Patrick Siegfried

6. Conclusion to Automotive Disruption and the Urban Mobility Revolution

Abstract
This wrap-up summarizes the key economic, societal, technological, and political factors that are driving and shaping automotive change. The elaboration of both this publication and many of the sources referenced in this publication are based on assumptions and hypotheses derived from the current status quo. Influencing variables that shape societal trends, delay or accelerate technological advances, or political decisions can only be included in the analysis to the best of our knowledge. It remains to be seen to what extent the depicted development of the automotive industry corresponds to the reality of the year 2030.
Martin Lempp, Patrick Siegfried

7. Prospects: A Look Beyond

Abstract
The last section takes a look at issues that are not measurable or quantifiable in the conventional sense. It deals with ethical questions that go hand in hand with the progress of data-driven mobility controlled by artificial intelligence. Is a zero-fatality approach to autonomous driving justified? Should the life of young people be given more weight in an accident? Can the value of human life be quantified at all? And how could data collected about each user be misused? These questions are not answered conclusively, but they must be raised and kept in mind.
Martin Lempp, Patrick Siegfried
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