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Erschienen in: Political Behavior 1/2020

13.08.2018 | Original Paper

Beyond Keeping the Peace: Can Peacekeepers Reduce Ethnic Divisions After Violence?

verfasst von: Douglas Page, Sam Whitt

Erschienen in: Political Behavior | Ausgabe 1/2020

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Abstract

Existing research suggests that international peacekeeping contributes to conflict resolution and helps sustain peace, often in locations with hostile ethnic divisions. However, it is unclear whether the presence of peacekeepers actually reduces underlying ethnocentric views and parochial behaviors that sustain those divisions. We examine the effects of NATO peacekeeper deployments on ethnocentrism in postwar Bosnia. While peacekeepers were not randomly deployed in Bosnia, we find that highly ethnocentric attitudes were common across Bosnia at the onset of peacekeeper deployments, reducing endogeneity concerns. To measure ethnocentrism, we employ a variety of survey instruments as well as a behavioral experiment (the dictator game) with ethnic treatments across time. We find that regions with peacekeepers exhibit lower levels of ethnocentrism in comparison to regions without peacekeepers, and this effect persists even after peacekeepers have departed. The peacekeeping effect is also robust to a sub-sample of ethnic Bosnian Serbs, suggesting that peacekeeper deployments can have positive effects on diminishing ethnocentrism, even when local communities are especially hostile to their presence. Our results speak to the potential long-term role of peacekeepers in reducing tensions among groups in conflict.
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1
Scholars are divided on which types of institutional arrangements (ex. consociationalism, ethnofederalism, decentralization) are most effective for reducing tensions in postwar societies (Lijphart 1969; Sisk 1996; Roeder 2009; Brancati 2006; Hale 2008; Wolff 2009). Other scholars also argue that partition may be the only solution to managing ethnic tensions after violence (Mearsheimer and Pape 1993; Kaufmann 1998; Downes 2004).
 
2
Pre-war survey research by Burg and Berbaum (1989), Hodson et al. (1994), Sekulic et al. (1994) pointed to strong traditions of tolerance and cosmopolitanism in Bosnia.
 
3
The Dayton Agreement: Annex 1A: Military Aspects of the Peace Settlement, Article VI Deployment of the Implementation Force states that IFOR (Operation Joint Endeavor) would have complete freedom of movement throughout Bosnia and that IFOR brigades and battalion locations would be determined by IFOR command. The choice of IFOR deployment locations was based on a combination of strategic goals as well as logistical and safety concerns. Wentz et al. (1998) offer rationales for the deployment of forces to lower elevation urban areas with better infrastructure resources.
 
4
An important scope condition for our study is that Bosnian peacekeepers were deployed as part of a clearly negotiated settlement and accompanied by a large body of international civilian organizations tasked with implementing the peace agreement. Prior UNPROFOR peacekeepers, in contrast, were deployed in Bosnia in the absence of a clear peace agreement or a multidimensional civilian component and failed to stem mass violence.
 
5
We consider ethno-nationalism—the desire for an ethnic political homeland with explicit ethno-political representation - as conceptually distinct from ethnocentrism, a tendency to identify with and favor one’s in-group strongly over out-groups in attitudes and preferences. Our survey and experimental instruments provide better measures of ethnocentrism than ethno-nationalism.
 
6
Replication files for this article are available at the Political Behavior dataverse: https://​doi.​org/​10.​7910/​DVN/​SISU79.
 
7
Ideally, our survey instruments from the US government and UNDP/USAID surveys would be identical for a difference in difference design. However, we would argue that if ethnocentric attitudes were prominent in the population, both sets of instruments should identify it.
 
8
Neither study considered possible peacekeeping effects on ethnocentrism when examining these data.
 
9
Subjects are given an envelope and asked to allocate a 10-unit sum of money to first an in-group recipient followed by an out-group recipient of random ethnicity using explicit ethnic cues [respondent is Bosniak, Bosnian Croat, Bosnian Serb]. Whatever is placed in the envelope is sent to an out-group recipient at a future experimental location. Whatever the subjects keep is theirs to take home.
 
10
Unfortunately, we do not have baseline behavioral measures of ethnocentrism from 1995 prior to NATO peacekeeper arrival.
 
11
Due to budgetary restrictions, we reduced the sample size in the 2013 replication.
 
12
See the SI Tables 1A–B for balance tables between 2003 and 2013 and between peacekeeping versus non-peacekeeping regions.
 
13
See Tuathail and O’Loughlin (2009) for a discussion of post-war migration and refugee return in Bosnia. Since the war, however, Bosnia is also experiencing a net negative migration rate, suggestive of a “brain drain” (See MGD Achievement Fund 2012; https://​data.​worldbank.​org/​indicator/​SM.​POP.​NETM).
 
14
Estimates of war casualties were obtained from the Research and Documentation Center (RDC), Sarajevo. See Ball et al. (2007).
 
15
Using pre-war 1989 survey data, Sekulic et al. (1994) show that Bosnians in general were the most ethnically tolerant of former Yugoslav republics, especially in urban ethnically mixed areas.
 
16
U.S. government surveys were conducted by the Office of Opinion Research in the former U.S. Information Agency, which has since been incorporated into the State Department.
 
17
Views of In and Out Groups—“Please tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of: [Bosniaks, Bosnian Croats, Bosnian Serbs]” 1 = very unfavorable to 4 = very favorable. Responses are combined into an additive index for views of out-groups for each ethnic group. See SI Table 4 for full regression models.
 
18
Views of Nato—“what is your opinion of the decision to deploy 60,000 NATO peacekeeping troops to Bosnia?” 1 = strongly oppose to 4 = strongly support. See SI Table 5 for full regression results.
 
19
Political Inclusion DV. How acceptable/unacceptable is it for you to live in the same state with [Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks]? [1 = completely unacceptable to 4 = completely acceptable]. Social Inclusion DV = How acceptable/unacceptable is it for [Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks] to live in your neighborhood? [1 = completely unacceptable to 4 = completely acceptable].
 
20
The UNDP surveys did not include measures of individual-level war-time victimization, which we acknowledge as a potentially important limitation of the data.
 
21
We also examine a subsample of victims of violence. We only have individual level victimization data from 2013 due to IRB restrictions on asking about victimization in the 2003 study.
 
22
Individual level victimization is significantly correlated with a reduction in in-group bias in the follow-up model but we lack comparable victimization data for 2003. This finding is consistent with other behavioral studies of pro-sociality among victims of violence (see Bauer et al. 2016). Unemployment is also negatively correlated with in-group bias in the 2003 study.
 
23
To assess how much greater the effect of an unobserved variable would need to be relative to observable factors to explain away a key explanatory variable, Altonji et. al. (2005) use a ratio of regression coefficients from models with full and restricted control variables (βF/(βR − βF). In our case, the restricted coefficient is obtained when only controlling for peacekeepers, which is βR = − 0.687 (SE = 0.161, p < 0.0000). The ratio of full to restricted models is 5.87.
 
24
In additional models, we found that the peacekeeping effect is also robust to more socio-economic controls, changes in municipal level economic conditions (which may proxy for confounding effects of international aid following peacekeeper deployments), and changes in ethnic fractionalization from the 1991 to 2013 population censuses, and restricted samples of more rural and ethnically homogenous areas of Bosnia. We also find the peacekeeping effect is robust to coarsened exact matching, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score matching. See SI Appendix Tables 8–11, 17.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Beyond Keeping the Peace: Can Peacekeepers Reduce Ethnic Divisions After Violence?
verfasst von
Douglas Page
Sam Whitt
Publikationsdatum
13.08.2018
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Political Behavior / Ausgabe 1/2020
Print ISSN: 0190-9320
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-6687
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9493-1

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