Beyond the San Francisco System, to Where? Contending Visions for the Region-Building in East Asia

This article examines the evolution of East Asian regional order from the Cold War-era San Francisco System to present-day rival visions for regional integration. It argues that the San Francisco Peace Treaty institutionalized Cold War divisions and prioritized US strategic interests, enabling Japan’s reintegration while neglecting historical reconciliation. The emergence of the ASEAN Plus Three framework and the East Asian Community vision in the 1990s reflected aspirations for greater regional autonomy and cooperation. However, US opposition and growing US–China rivalry have hindered the realization of a cohesive East Asian community. The study highlights the role of middle powers, like ASEAN and South Korea, in promoting inclusive regionalism while noting how mega-regional projects, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the US–Japan-led Indo-Pacific strategy, have complicated regional unity. The article traces the shift from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific frameworks, emphasizing the impact of great power competition on regional diplomacy. It also explores the challenges and setbacks faced by trilateral and multilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia. Ultimately, the article contends that the region stands at a crossroads, with the risk of renewed division under a “San Francisco System 2.0” unless inclusive, community-based approaches prevail.