5. Bioenergy Futures: A Global Outlook on the Implications of Land Use for Forest-Based Feedstock Production

Preservation of biodiversity and reduction of deforestation are considered to be key elements whenever an increased use of bioenergy in the future is addressed. This chapter presents different scenarios to 2050 for global feedstock supply for the production of bioenergy under specified social and environmental safeguard provisions. The scenarios were developed through the application of an integrated global modeling cluster; they show that biomass for bioenergy will, to a large extent, be sourced from the conversion of unmanaged forest into managed forest, from new fast-growing short-rotation plantations, and from intensification of land use. Depending on the underlying scenario, zero net deforestation by 2020 might be reached and upheld with only a minor expansion into managed forests. Results further indicate that with rising populations and projected consumption levels, there may not be enough land to simultaneously conserve natural areas completely, halt forest loss, and switch to 100 % renewable energy, which will make difficult trade-offs necessary. Future food and energy demands would lead to acute land competition and increased pressure on agricultural land and water resources. Managed boreal forests are likely be an important source for bioenergy feedstock and, especially in the tropical regions, it is important to achieve a controlled conversion from unmanaged to sustainably managed forest as well as increased protection of areas for biodiversity.