1 Introduction
2 Literature review
2.1 Polycentric structure examples
2.2 Polycentric structure of Melbourne and Riyadh
3 Methodology
3.1 Data collection
3.2 Land use/transport interaction (LUTI) modelling
3.2.1 Land use model
3.2.2 Transport model
3.2.3 Model calibration and validation
Indicator | Melbourne model | |
---|---|---|
Estimated from available data | Estimated by model | |
VKT | 25,530,322 | 30,075,288 |
Mode share | ||
Car | 1,996,470 | 1,769,266 |
Transit | 270,884 | 493,184 |
Walk | 171,469 | 171,911 |
3.2.4 Model application
Trip purpose | Explanatory variables for Melbourne | Explanatory variables for Riyadh |
---|---|---|
HBW | Number of workers | Number of workers |
Number of households | Number of households | |
Number of jobs | Number of jobs | |
NHBW | Number of workers | Number of workers |
Number of households | Number of households | |
Number of student | Number of student | |
Number of jobs | Number of jobs | |
Number of students in school | Number of students in school | |
Number of retail shops | Number of retail shops | |
Number of malls | ||
Number of Students in Universities |
-
Scenario 1 has 5 new subcentres with redistribution of population around the new subcentres.
-
Scenario 2 has 5 new subcentres with redistribution of employment around the new subcentres.
-
Scenario 3 has 5 new subcentres with redistribution of both population and employment around the new subcentres (see Fig. 2).
Factors | Variables | Centre | 2008 | 2030 (Scenario 0) | Scenario 1 2030 | Scenario 2 2030 | Scenario 3 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Residential | Households | CBD | 2,096 | 2,351 |
250,837
| 2,351 |
250,837
|
1 | 1,744 | 78,513 |
506,069
| 78,513 |
506,069
| ||
2 | 3,089 | 225,178 |
507,414
| 225,178 | 506,069 | ||
3 | 2,268 | 43,460 |
506,593
| 43,460 |
506,593
| ||
4 | 917 | 22,825 |
505,242
| 22,825 |
505,242
| ||
5 | 2,507 | 22,451 |
506,832
| 22,451 |
506,832
| ||
Other | 763,055 | 3,151,264 |
763,055
| 3,151,264 |
763,055
| ||
Total | 775,676 | 3,546,042 |
3,546,042
| 3,546,042 |
3,546,042
| ||
Workers | CBD | 4,884 | 5,478 |
584,701
| 5,478 |
584,701
| |
1 | 4,070 | 183,181 |
1,179,653
| 183,181 |
1,179,653
| ||
2 | 7,207 | 525,360 |
1,182,790
| 525,360 |
1,182,790
| ||
3 | 5,290 | 101,379 |
1,180,873
| 101,379 |
1,180,873
| ||
4 | 2,143 | 53,342 |
1,177,726
| 53,342 |
1,177,726
| ||
5 | 5,846 | 52,347 |
1,181,429
| 52,347 |
1,181,429
| ||
Other | 1,779,119 | 7,345,202 |
1,779,119
| 7,345,202 |
1,779,119
| ||
Total | 1,808,559 | 8,266,288 |
8,266,288
| 8,266,288 |
8,266,288
| ||
Students in residences | CBD | 2,960 | 3,320 |
384,874
| 3,320 |
384,874
| |
1 | 3,459 | 155,681 |
778,753
| 155,681 |
778,753
| ||
2 | 2,457 | 179,105 |
777,751
| 179,105 |
777,751
| ||
3 | 1,663 | 31,870 |
776,957
| 31,870 |
776,957
| ||
4 | 903 | 22,477 |
776,197
| 22,477 |
776,197
| ||
5 | 5,945 | 53,233 |
781,239
| 53,233 |
781,239
| ||
Other | 1,782,550 | 6,803,567 |
6,803,567
| 1,782,550 |
1,782,550
| ||
Total | 1,808,387 | 7,401,914 |
7,401,914
| 7,401,914 |
7,401,914
| ||
Activities | Jobs | CBD | 4,830 | 5,417 | 5,417 |
507,841
|
507,841
|
1 | 682 | 30,695 | 30,695 |
1,018,785
|
1,018,785
| ||
2 | 1,058 | 77,124 | 77,124 |
1,019,161
|
1,019,161
| ||
3 | 10,854 | 208,008 | 208,008 |
1,028,957
|
1,028,957
| ||
4 | 1,366 | 34,002 | 34,002 |
1,019,469
|
1,019,469
| ||
5 | 7,047 | 243,101 | 243,101 |
1,025,150
|
1,025,150
| ||
Other | 1,782,550 | 6,803,567 | 6,803,567 |
1,782,550
|
1,782,550
| ||
Total | 1,808,387 | 7,401,914 | 7,401,914 |
7,401,914
|
7,401,914
| ||
Students in schools | CBD | 1,087 | 1,219 | 1,219 |
341,717
|
341,717
| |
1 | 4,646 | 209,105 | 209,105 |
695,367
|
695,367
| ||
2 | 429 | 31,272 | 31,272 |
691,150
|
691,150
| ||
3 | 1,286 | 24,645 | 24,645 |
692,007
|
692,007
| ||
4 | 1,708 | 42,515 | 42,515 |
692,429
|
692,429
| ||
5 | 3,381 | 30,274 | 30,274 |
694,102
|
694,102
| ||
Other | 1,239,874 | 4,707,615 | 4,707,615 |
1,239,874
|
1,239,874
| ||
Total | 1,252,411 | 5,046,646 | 5,046,646 |
5,046,646
|
5,046,646
| ||
No. of retail shops | CBD | 378 | 424 | 424 |
19,125
|
19,125
| |
1 | 61 | 2,745 | 2,745 |
38,058
|
38,058
| ||
2 | 21 | 1,531 | 1,531 |
38,018
|
38,018
| ||
3 | 65 | 1,246 | 1,246 |
38,062
|
38,062
| ||
4 | 17 | 423 | 423 |
38,014
|
38,014
| ||
5 | 217 | 7,943 | 7,943 |
38,214
|
38,214
| ||
Other | 66,561 | 261,739 | 261,739 |
66,561
|
66,561
| ||
Total | 67,320 | 276,051 | 276,051 |
276,051
|
276,051
|
Factors | Variable | Centre | 2008 | 2030 (Scenario 0) | Scenario 1 2030 | Scenario 2 2030 | Scenario 3 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Residential | Households | CBD | 9,936 | 12,859 |
54,090
| 12,859 |
54,090
|
1 | 5,862 | 7,586 |
114,775
| 7,586 |
114,775
| ||
2 | 3,154 | 5,821 |
112,067
| 5,821 |
112,067
| ||
3 | 10,627 | 13,754 |
119,541
| 13,754 |
119,541
| ||
4 | 15,455 | 20,002 |
124,369
| 20,002 |
124,369
| ||
5 | 24,484 | 57,460 |
133,397
| 57,460 |
133,397
| ||
Other | 1,357,873 | 1,898,631 |
1,357,874
| 1,898,631 |
1,357,874
| ||
Total | 1,427,391 | 2,016,113 |
2,016,113
| 2,016,113 |
2,016,113
| ||
Workers | CBD | 10,818 | 14,001 |
67,228
| 14,001 |
67,228
| |
1 | 6,517 | 8,434 |
145,661
| 8,434 |
145,661
| ||
2 | 2,367 | 4,368 |
141,511
| 4,368 |
141,511
| ||
3 | 12,845 | 16,625 |
151,990
| 16,625 |
151,990
| ||
4 | 19,595 | 25,360 |
158,740
| 25,360 |
158,740
| ||
5 | 27,477 | 64,486 |
166,622
| 64,486 |
166,622
| ||
Other | 1,767,762 | 2,466,240 |
1,767,762
| 2,466,240 |
1,767,762
| ||
Total | 1,847,381 | 2,599,514 |
2,599,514
| 2,599,514 |
2,599,514
| ||
Student in residences | CBD | 947 | 1,226 |
26,449
| 1,226 |
26,449
| |
1 | 2,033 | 2,631 |
65,548
| 2,631 |
65,548
| ||
2 | 2,651 | 4,893 |
65,572
| 4,893 |
65,572
| ||
3 | 4,851 | 6,278 |
67,768
| 6,278 |
67,768
| ||
4 | 7,778 | 10,067 |
70,694
| 10,067 |
70,694
| ||
5 | 12,045 | 28,268 |
74,964
| 28,268 |
74,964
| ||
Other | 764,020.4 | 1,081,081.2 |
763,449.2
| 1,081,081.2 |
763,449.2
| ||
Total | 794,325.4 | 1,134,444.2 |
1,134,444.2
| 1,134,444.2 |
1,134,444.2
| ||
Activities | Jobs | CBD | 219,548 | 280,283 | 280,283 | 277,229 |
277,229
|
1 | 13,637 | 18,354 | 18,354 |
160,739
|
160,739
| ||
2 | 8,249 | 13,008 | 13,008 |
150,662
|
150,662
| ||
3 | 20,333 | 26,150 | 26,150 |
162,714
|
162,714
| ||
4 | 21,409 | 27,534 | 27,534 |
163,781
|
163,781
| ||
5 | 23,832 | 44,978 | 44,978 |
166,234
|
166,234
| ||
Other | 1,548,321 | 2,214,875 | 2,214,875 |
1,543,823
|
1,543,823
| ||
Total | 1,855,329 | 2,625,182 | 2,625,182 |
2,625,182
|
2,625,182
| ||
Student in school | CBD | 63,056 | 81,610 | 81,610 |
96,218
|
96,218
| |
1 | 20,536 | 26,579 | 26,579 |
108,510
|
108,510
| ||
2 | 20,396 | 37,645 | 37,645 |
102,362
|
102,362
| ||
3 | 15,984 | 20,687 | 20,687 |
97,909
|
97,909
| ||
4 | 10,534 | 13,633 | 13,633 |
92,449
|
92,449
| ||
5 | 30,472 | 71,514 | 71,514 |
112,424
|
112,424
| ||
Other | 943,266 | 1,295,707 | 1,295,707 |
937,503
|
937,503
| ||
Total | 1,104,244 | 1,547,375 | 1,547,375 |
1,547,375
|
1,547,375
| ||
No. of retail shops | CBD | 15,607 | 20,199 | 20,199 |
23,407
|
23,407
| |
1 | 1,822 | 2,358 | 2,358 |
21,611
|
21,611
| ||
2 | 1,468 | 2,709 | 2,709 |
20,724
|
20,724
| ||
3 | 2,340 | 3,028 | 3,028 |
21,592
|
21,592
| ||
4 | 5,327 | 6,894 | 6,894 |
24,578
|
24,578
| ||
5 | 6,215 | 14,587 | 14,587 |
25,470
|
25,470
| ||
Other | 229,663 | 316,760 | 316,760 |
229,153
|
229,153
| ||
Total | 262,442 | 366,535 | 366,535 |
366,535
|
366,535
|
4 Model result
4.1 Trip rates
4.1.1 HBW purpose
S1 | S2 | S3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Change % vs. S0 | Change % vs S0 | Change % vs S0 | |
HBW | |||
Car trip | −1.23 | 2.34 | −0.71 |
PT trip | 1.91 | −7.71 | −6.19 |
Walk trip | 17.93 | −5.09 | 59.24 |
NHBW | |||
Car trip | −2.85 | −0.13 | −4.42 |
PT trip | 6.37 | −0.21 | 5.80 |
Walk trip | 6.86 | 1.26 | 15.60 |
S1 | S2 | S3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Change % vs. S0 | Change % vs S0 | Change % vs S0 | |
HBW | |||
Car trip | −7.83 | −3.35 | −20.32 |
PT trip | 12.35 | 5.63 | 9.98 |
Walk trip | 29.55 | 19.17 | 89.05 |
NHBW | |||
Car trip | −3.04 | −5.01 | −16.25 |
PT trip | 4.02 | −0.13 | −1.07 |
Walk trip | 10.28 | 59.52 | 63.03 |
4.1.2 NHBW purpose
4.2 Mode share
4.2.1 HBW purpose
2008 (%) | Scenario 0 (%) | Scenario 1 (%) | Scenario 2 (%) | Scenario 3 (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HBW | |||||
Car share | 84.0 | 74.2 | 73.5 | 76.0 | 73.8 |
PT share | 14.8 | 24.5 | 25.0 | 22.8 | 23.1 |
Walk share | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3.0 |
NHBW | |||||
Car share | 81.0 | 71.9 | 69.9 | 71.8 | 68.8 |
PT share | 9.6 | 17.5 | 18.7 | 17.5 | 18.6 |
Walk share | 9.4 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 12.6 |
2008 (%) | Scenario 0 (%) | Scenario 1 (%) | Scenario 2 (%) | Scenario 3 (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HBW | |||||
Car share | 99.3 | 67.4 | 62.6 | 65.3 | 56.1 |
PT share | – | 31.6 | 36.1 | 33.5 | 35.2 |
Walk share | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 8.8 |
NHBW | |||||
Car share | 97.1 | 64.0 | 62.1 | 60.8 | 55.1 |
PT share | – | 30.6 | 31.9 | 30.6 | 30.3 |
Walk share | 2.9 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 14.5 |
4.2.2 NHBW purpose
4.3 Trip distance
4.3.1 HBW purpose
S1 | S2 | S3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Change % vs. S0 | Change % vs S0 | Change % vs S0 | |
HBW | |||
Car PKT | −5.56 | −1.41 | −12.69 |
PT PKT | −5.93 | −13.44 | −23.54 |
Walk PKT | 24.24 | 4.37 | 56.65 |
NHBW | |||
Car PKT | −8.61 | −1.35 | −14.40 |
PT PKT | −0.62 | −1.01 | −4.55 |
Walk PKT | 22.48 | 4.91 | 29.87 |
S1 | S2 | S3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Change % vs. S0 | Change % vs S0 | Change % vs S0 | |
HBW | |||
Car PKT | −6.19 | −1.60 | −27.75 |
PT PKT | 10.72 | 12.76 | 4.07 |
Walk PKT | 26.07 | 5.07 | 83.46 |
NHBW | |||
Car PKT | −2.22 | −3.27 | −39.44 |
PT PKT | 4.26 | 7.96 | −11.52 |
Walk PKT | 1.37 | 10.43 | −27.02 |
4.3.2 NHBW purpose
4.4 Travel time
4.4.1 HBW purpose
S1 | S2 | S3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Change % vs. S0 | Change % vs S0 | Change % vs S0 | |
HBW | |||
Car PHT | −3.24 | 0.91 | −5.37 |
PT PHT | −2.22 | −3.88 | −6.95 |
Walk PHT | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
NHBW | |||
Car PHT | −3.58 | −0.16 | −5.86 |
PT PHT | −0.21 | −0.44 | −1.05 |
Walk PHT | 0.94 | 0.16 | 1.42 |
4.4.2 NHBW purpose
S1 | S2 | S3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Change % vs. S0 | Change % vs S0 | Change % vs S0 | |
HBW | |||
Car PHT | −5.72 | −1.27 | −20.15 |
PT PHT | 2.36 | 1.14 | −1.87 |
Walk PHT | 0.35 | 0.05 | 5.72 |
NHBW | |||
Car PHT | −1.79 | −2.60 | −26.23 |
PT PHT | 0.59 | −0.83 | −7.30 |
Walk PHT | 0.12 | 0.99 | −2.39 |