Introduction
Literature review
General studies of the dynamics of household car ownership
Household car ownership and life events
Studies that distinguish between different car ownership level change types
Research framework
Data
Analytical approach
Variable | Full sample | Zero car | One car | Two car | Three car | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | % | n | % | n | % | n | % | n | % | |
Cross-sectional models | ||||||||||
0 Car | 4472 | 23.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
1 Car | 8449 | 43.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
2 Cars | 5088 | 26.3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
3 Cars | 1325 | 6.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Total | 19,334 | 100.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Car ownership level change models | ||||||||||
Increase car ownership level | 1728 | 8.9 | 463 | 10.4 | 737 | 8.7 | 378 | 7.4 | 150 | 11.3 |
Decrease car ownership level | 1751 | 9.1 | 0 | 0.0 | 460 | 5.4 | 768 | 15.1 | 523 | 39.5 |
No change | 15,855 | 82.0 | 4009 | 89.7 | 7252 | 85.8 | 3942 | 77.5 | 652 | 49.2 |
Total | 19,334 | 100.0 | 4472 | 100.0 | 8449 | 100.0 | 5088 | 100.0 | 1325 | 100.0 |
Using households as the unit of observation in a dynamic framework
Explanatory variables: baseline
Neighbourhood variable | Source data set | Definition |
---|---|---|
Settlement type (London and metropolitan, other urban, rural) | UK National Travel Survey categories | Degree of urbanity of area of residence |
Population density | UK census 2001 | Population density in area of residence |
Proportion of population economically active | UK census 2001 | – |
Travel time to the nearest employment centre with at least 100 jobs by PT/walk (min) | DfT accessibility indicators 2009 | Time taken by public transport (PT) to reach closest employment centre |
Number of employment centres with at least 100 jobs accessible by PT/walk (weighted by distance decay function) | DfT accessibility indicators 2009 | Ease of access by public transport (PT) to major employment opportunities |
Travel time to nearest town centre by PT/walk (mins) | DfT accessibility indicators 2009 | Time taken by public transport (PT) to reach closest commercial centre |
Number of foodstores accessible by PT/walk (weighted by distance decay function) | DfT accessibility indicators 2009 | Ease of access by public transport (PT) to food shops (indicator of mixed land use) |
Overall index of multiple deprivation (IMD) scorea
| Indices of multiple deprivation 2010 | Overall level of social deprivation score measured with respect to income, employment, health, education, crime, access to services and living environment |
Living environment IMD scorea
| Indices of multiple deprivation 2010 | Score combining measures of poor quality housing, numbers of road casualties and air pollution |
Presence of railway station in LSOA or surrounding LSOA | National Public Transport data repository | – |
No. of bus stops in LSOA | National Public Transport data repository | – |
Explanatory variables: life events and other change variables
Life eventa
| Full sampleb, n = 19,334 | 0 Car sample, n = 4472 | 1 Car sample, n = 8449 | 2 Car sample, n = 5088 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Life event frequencyc
| Life event frequencyc
| 0–1+ Cars (%) | Life event frequencyc
| 1–2+ Cars (%) | 1–0 Cars (%) | Life event frequencyc
| 2–3+ Cars (%) | 2–1 Cars (%) | |
Changed employer | 1647 | 170* | 24.71 | 649* | 18.34 | 4.16 | 613* | 10.44 | 12.56 |
Entered employment from non-employment | 1525 | 332* | 20.78 | 587* | 16.18 | 4.26 | 469* | 11.09 | 16.42 |
Residential relocation | 1426 | 399* | 21.55 | 574* | 15.51 | 16.20 | 320* | 7.19 | 42.50 |
Lost employment (excl retirement) | 1023 | 200 | 14.00 | 409* | 10.02 | 10.76 | 319* | 5.33 | 19.44 |
Gained a driving licence | 794 | 292* | 41.44 | 301* | 26.58 | 2.99 | 146* | 37.67 | 15.75 |
Had child | 622 | 151* | 24.50 | 232 | 11.21 | 5.17 | 210* | 1.90 | 20.48 |
Gained a partner | 447 | 132* | 53.03 | 201* | 44.28 | 4.98 | 63* | 14.29 | 36.51 |
Lost a partner | 372 | 81 | 13.58 | 161* | 6.83 | 31.06 | 109* | 3.67 | 82.57 |
Retired | 355 | 33 | 3.03 | 141 | 7.80 | 4.96 | 146 | 6.16 | 17.12 |
% households overall | – | – | 10.35d
| – | 8.72d
| 5.44d
| – | 7.43d
| 15.09d
|
Regression model results
Variable | 0 Car: wave one cross-sectional | 0–1 or more cars | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/\( \overline{x}\)
a
| %/SDb
| Odds ratio | P > z | n/\( \overline{x} \)
a
| %/SDb
| Odds ratio | P > z | |
Life events | ||||||||
Residential relocation | 1426 | 7.38 | – | – | 399 | 8.92 | 1.248 | 0.222 |
Change in urbanity (−2: less urban to +2: more urban) |
0.00
|
0.15
| – | – |
0.00
|
0.14
| 1.045 | 0.900 |
Change in no. of bus stops | −0.01
|
4.09
| – | – | −0.04
|
5.64
| 1.002 | 0.807 |
Change in rail station proximity (gain = +1, loss = −1) |
0.00
|
0.16
| – | – |
0.00
|
0.17
| 0.924 | 0.776 |
Change in travel time to nearest employment centre by PT/walk (mins) |
0.01
|
1.45
| – | – |
0.02
|
1.00
| 1.058 | 0.287 |
Change in no. of foodstores accessible by PT/walk |
0.00
|
0.27
| – | – | −0.01
|
0.25
| 0.730 | 0.146 |
Change in MSOA population density | −0.09
|
8.31
| – | – | −0.31
|
10.65
| 0.993 | 0.179 |
Householder gained partner | 447 | 2.31 | – | – | 132 | 2.95 | 3.807* | 0.000 |
Householder lost partner | 372 | 1.92 | – | – | 81 | 1.81 | 1.504 | 0.330 |
Householder gained employment | 1525 | 7.89 | – | – | 332 | 7.42 | 1.416* | 0.049 |
Householder lost employment (excl retirement) | 1023 | 5.29 | – | – | 200 | 4.47 | 0.650 | 0.095 |
Householder retired | 355 | 1.84 | – | – | 33 | 0.74 | 0.343 | 0.302 |
Householder switched employer | 1647 | 8.52 | – | – | 170 | 3.80 | 1.435 | 0.112 |
Householder had child | 622 | 3.22 | – | – | 151 | 3.38 | 2.213* | 0.001 |
Householder acquired driving licence | 794 | 4.11 | – | – | 292 | 6.53 | 7.012* | 0.000 |
No. of adults increased | 1338 | 6.92 | – | – | 319 | 7.13 | 3.753* | 0.000 |
No. of adults reduced | 1344 | 6.95 | – | – | 266 | 5.95 | 0.822 | 0.479 |
Wave 1 household has divided by wave 2 | 690 | 3.57 | – | – | 128 | 2.86 | 1.283 | 0.436 |
Change in income (£1000/month) |
0.20
|
2.33
| – | – |
0.19
|
1.58
| 1.092* | 0.009 |
Wave 1 household structure and life stage | ||||||||
HH size 1 person | 4559 | 23.58 | 1.104 | 0.157 | 2042 | 45.66 | 0.620* | 0.009 |
HH size 3 people | 3269 | 16.91 | 0.834* | 0.027 | 561 | 12.54 | 1.624* | 0.013 |
HH size 4+ people | 4953 | 25.62 | 0.734* | 0.001 | 686 | 15.34 | 2.303* | 0.000 |
Ref: HH size 2 people | 6553 | 33.89 | – | – | 1183 | 26.45 | – | – |
Cohabiting relationship in HH | 11,649 | 60.25 | 0.279* | 0.000 | 1151 | 25.74 | 0.945 | 0.715 |
Child present in HH | 7163 | 37.05 | 0.986 | 0.892 | 1368 | 30.59 | 0.573* | 0.018 |
Eldest householder 16–24 | 542 | 2.80 | 3.165* | 0.000 | 313 | 7.00 | 0.745 | 0.217 |
Eldest householder 25–29 | 993 | 5.14 | 2.576* | 0.000 | 364 | 8.14 | 0.784 | 0.254 |
Eldest householder 30–44 | 5515 | 28.52 | 1.512* | 0.000 | 1146 | 25.63 | 0.824 | 0.213 |
Eldest householder 60–74 | 4440 | 22.96 | 0.633* | 0.000 | 868 | 19.41 | 0.675* | 0.049 |
Eldest householder 75+ | 2043 | 10.57 | 1.210* | 0.018 | 825 | 18.45 | 0.366* | 0.000 |
Ref: Eldest householder 45–59 | 5801 | 30.00 | – | – | 956 | 21.38 | – | – |
Child 0–2 present in HH | 2028 | 10.49 | 1.331* | 0.003 | 486 | 10.87 | 0.951 | 0.806 |
Child 3–4 present in HH | 1419 | 7.34 | 1.019 | 0.851 | 304 | 6.80 | 0.963 | 0.868 |
Child 5–11 present in HH | 3565 | 18.44 | 0.765* | 0.002 | 654 | 14.62 | 1.469 | 0.053 |
Child 12–15 present in HH | 2390 | 12.36 | 0.980 | 0.828 | 418 | 9.35 | 0.784 | 0.266 |
Offspring aged 16 present in HH | 794 | 4.11 | 0.969 | 0.809 | 125 | 2.80 | 0.181* | 0.000 |
Wave 1 household socio-demographic | ||||||||
Income (£1000/month) |
3.07
|
2.66
| 0.863* | 0.000 |
1.67
|
1.62
| 1.067 | 0.116 |
Highest household qual: degree | 5732 | 29.65 | 0.410* | 0.000 | 738 | 16.5 | 1.750* | 0.006 |
Highest household qual: other higher | 2674 | 13.83 | 0.316* | 0.000 | 343 | 7.67 | 1.707* | 0.020 |
Highest household qual: A level | 3718 | 19.23 | 0.439* | 0.000 | 684 | 15.3 | 1.598* | 0.011 |
Highest household qual: GCSE | 3253 | 16.83 | 0.551* | 0.000 | 879 | 19.66 | 1.008 | 0.964 |
Ref: Other or no qualification | 3957 | 20.47 | – | – | 1828 | 40.88 | – | – |
Highest SEC: management and professional | 6357 | 32.88 | 0.258* | 0.000 | 503 | 11.25 | 1.466 | 0.063 |
Highest SEC: intermediate | 1676 | 8.67 | 0.330* | 0.000 | 220 | 4.92 | 1.425 | 0.136 |
Highest SEC: small employers and own account | 1138 | 5.89 | 0.145* | 0.000 | 67 | 1.50 | 3.490* | 0.000 |
Highest SEC: lower supervisory and technical | 770 | 3.98 | 0.415* | 0.000 | 121 | 2.71 | 1.886* | 0.028 |
Highest SEC: semi routine, routine and never worked/unemployed | 2431 | 12.57 | 0.556* | 0.000 | 643 | 14.38 | 1.179 | 0.329 |
Ref: no employment status | 6962 | 36.01 | – | – | 2918 | 65.25 | – | – |
Wave 1 neighbourhood context | ||||||||
Area: inner London | 1442 | 7.46 | 3.320* | 0.000 | 779 | 17.42 | 0.528 | 0.090 |
Area: outer London | 2077 | 10.74 | 2.070* | 0.000 | 531 | 11.87 | 1.016 | 0.960 |
Area: metropolitan areas | 3148 | 16.28 | 1.387* | 0.002 | 941 | 21.04 | 0.869 | 0.644 |
Area: large urban (250k+) | 2175 | 11.25 | 1.155 | 0.198 | 523 | 11.69 | 0.838 | 0.582 |
Area: medium urban (25k–250k) | 4810 | 24.88 | 1.243* | 0.024 | 994 | 22.23 | 0.840 | 0.533 |
Area: small urban (10k–25k) | 1405 | 7.27 | 1.245 | 0.056 | 232 | 5.19 | 0.897 | 0.753 |
Area: very small urban (3k–10k) | 1010 | 5.22 | 1.414* | 0.006 | 151 | 3.38 | 0.943 | 0.881 |
Ref:area:rural | 3267 | 16.9 | – | – | 321 | 7.18 | – | – |
Number of bus stops in LSOA |
10.92
|
11.42
| 1.005* | 0.010 |
10.14
|
14.13
| 0.995 | 0.306 |
Rail station in LSOA or neighbouring LSOA | 6765 | 34.99 | 1.002 | 0.969 | 1607 | 35.93 | 1.169 | 0.220 |
Travel time to nearest employment centre by PT/walk (min) |
9.56
|
5.40
| 0.991 | 0.161 |
8.36
|
3.87
| 1.032* | 0.050 |
No. of emp centres with 100+ jobs accessible by PT/walk |
7.14
|
0.99
| 1.003 | 0.945 |
7.49
|
0.76
| 1.101 | 0.453 |
Travel time to nearest town centre by PT/walk (min) |
16.45
|
10.70
| 0.997 | 0.411 |
13.94
|
7.50
| 1.001 | 0.956 |
No. of foodstores accessible by PT/walk |
3.45
|
1.01
| 1.147* | 0.000 |
3.84
|
0.88
| 0.970 | 0.764 |
Overall index of multiple deprivation score |
23.11
|
16.20
| 1.023* | 0.000 |
32.59
|
17.07
| 1.002 | 0.799 |
Living environment index of multiple deprivation score |
22.66
|
17.16
| 1.001 | 0.413 |
30.07
|
18.72
| 0.994 | 0.150 |
MSOA population density (persons/HA) |
32.94
|
33.12
| 1.006* | 0.000 |
48.26
|
40.40
| 0.997 | 0.184 |
LSOA proportion economically active |
0.63
|
0.10
| 0.867 | 0.687 |
0.58
|
0.11
| 3.415 | 0.186 |
Ethnic minority boost sample household | 2589 | 13.39 | 1.209* | 0.006 | 1019 | 22.79 | 0.906 | 0.526 |
Constant | – | – | 0.486 | 0.080 | – | – | 0.019* | 0.001 |
n | 19,334 | 4472 | ||||||
Successes (n/%) | 4472 | 23.13 | 463 | 10.35 | ||||
Pseudo R-squared | 0.342 | 0.231 |
Variable | 1 Car: wave 1 cross-sectional | 1–2 or more cars | 1–0 car | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/\( \overline{x} \)
a
| %/SDb
| Odds ratio | P > z | n/\( \overline{x} \)
a
| %/SDb
| Odds ratio | P > z | Odds ratio | P > z | |
Life events | ||||||||||
Residential relocation | 1426 | 7.38 | – | – | 574 | 6.79 | 1.072 | 0.660 | 2.178* | 0.000 |
Change in urbanity (−2:less urban to +2:more urban) |
0.00
|
0.15
| – | – |
0.00
|
0.14
| 0.811 | 0.439 | 1.048 | 0.882 |
Change in no. of bus stops | −0.01
|
4.09
| – | – | −0.01
|
3.29
| 0.988 | 0.311 | 1.025 | 0.068 |
Change in rail station proximity (gain = +1, loss = −1) |
0.00
|
0.16
| – | – |
0.00
|
0.15
| 0.949 | 0.832 | 1.074 | 0.780 |
Change in travel time to nearest employment centre by PT/walk (min) |
0.01
|
1.45
| – | – |
0.02
|
1.38
| 0.995 | 0.868 | 0.956 | 0.334 |
Change in no. of foodstores accessible by PT/walk |
0.00
|
0.27
| – | – | −0.01
|
0.25
| 0.967 | 0.849 | 1.185 | 0.414 |
Change in MSOA population density | −0.09
|
8.31
| – | – | −0.12
|
7.40
| 0.990 | 0.067 | 1.008 | 0.128 |
Householder gained partner | 447 | 2.31 | – | – | 201 | 2.38 | 3.404* | 0.000 | 0.412* | 0.022 |
Householder lost partner | 372 | 1.92 | – | – | 161 | 1.91 | 1.137 | 0.739 | 2.884* | 0.000 |
Householder gained employment | 1525 | 7.89 | – | – | 587 | 6.95 | 1.734* | 0.000 | 0.519* | 0.007 |
Householder lost employment (excl retirement) | 1023 | 5.29 | – | – | 409 | 4.84 | 0.893 | 0.551 | 2.218* | 0.000 |
Householder retired | 355 | 1.84 | – | – | 141 | 1.67 | 1.327 | 0.425 | 2.005 | 0.100 |
Householder switched employer | 1647 | 8.52 | – | – | 649 | 7.68 | 1.616* | 0.000 | 1.044 | 0.851 |
Householder had child | 622 | 3.22 | – | – | 232 | 2.75 | 0.789 | 0.327 | 0.676 | 0.255 |
Householder acquired driving licence | 794 | 4.11 | – | – | 301 | 3.56 | 2.923* | 0.000 | 0.383* | 0.013 |
No. of adults increased | 1338 | 6.92 | – | – | 572 | 6.77 | 6.723* | 0.000 | 0.833 | 0.555 |
No. of adults reduced | 1344 | 6.95 | – | – | 396 | 4.69 | 0.503* | 0.017 | 3.906* | 0.000 |
Wave 1 household has divided by wave 2 | 690 | 3.57 | – | – | 175 | 2.07 | 0.892 | 0.735 | 2.635* | 0.000 |
Change in income (£1000/month) |
0.20
|
2.33
| – | – |
0.22
|
1.98
| 1.087* | 0.000 | 0.836* | 0.000 |
Wave 1 household structure and life stage | ||||||||||
HH size 1 person | 4559 | 23.58 | 1.358* | 0.000 | 2356 | 27.88 | 0.519* | 0.000 | 0.598* | 0.004 |
HH size 3 people | 3269 | 16.91 | 0.572* | 0.000 | 1255 | 14.85 | 1.766* | 0.000 | 1.196 | 0.352 |
HH size 4+ people | 4953 | 25.62 | 0.408* | 0.000 | 1817 | 21.51 | 3.299* | 0.000 | 1.433 | 0.124 |
Ref: HH size 2 people | 6553 | 33.89 | – | – | 3021 | 35.76 | – | – | – | – |
Cohabiting relationship in HH | 11,649 | 60.25 | 1.131* | 0.009 | 4743 | 56.14 | 1.306* | 0.041 | 0.384* | 0.000 |
Child present in HH | 7163 | 37.05 | 1.291* | 0.000 | 2966 | 35.1 | 0.686* | 0.040 | 0.785 | 0.307 |
Eldest householder 16–24 | 542 | 2.80 | 0.482* | 0.000 | 163 | 1.93 | 1.327 | 0.295 | 3.061* | 0.000 |
Eldest householder 25–29 | 993 | 5.14 | 0.838* | 0.018 | 418 | 4.95 | 1.178 | 0.372 | 1.392 | 0.204 |
Eldest householder 30–44 | 5515 | 28.52 | 1.081 | 0.068 | 2471 | 29.25 | 1.024 | 0.831 | 1.344 | 0.060 |
Eldest householder 60–74 | 4440 | 22.96 | 1.413* | 0.000 | 2151 | 25.46 | 0.625* | 0.002 | 0.658* | 0.019 |
Eldest householder 75+ | 2043 | 10.57 | 1.467* | 0.000 | 980 | 11.60 | 0.350* | 0.000 | 1.175 | 0.427 |
Ref: eldest householder 45–59 | 5801 | 30.00 | – | – | 2266 | 26.82 | – | – | – | – |
Child 0–2 present in HH | 2028 | 10.49 | 1.224* | 0.001 | 829 | 9.81 | 0.734 | 0.058 | 0.966 | 0.875 |
Child 3–4 present in HH | 1419 | 7.34 | 1.204* | 0.005 | 593 | 7.02 | 0.828 | 0.261 | 0.611 | 0.052 |
Child 5–11 present in HH | 3565 | 18.44 | 1.467* | 0.000 | 1571 | 18.59 | 0.619* | 0.001 | 0.693 | 0.064 |
Child 12–15 present in HH | 2390 | 12.36 | 1.296* | 0.000 | 995 | 11.78 | 0.838 | 0.250 | 0.892 | 0.583 |
Offspring aged 16 present in HH | 794 | 4.11 | 1.165 | 0.065 | 315 | 3.73 | 0.182* | 0.000 | 1.256 | 0.528 |
Wave 1 household socio-demographic | ||||||||||
Income (£1000/month) |
3.07
|
2.66
| 0.872* | 0.000 |
2.60
|
2.05
| 1.080* | 0.001 | 0.788* | 0.000 |
Highest household qual: degree | 5732 | 29.65 | 1.638* | 0.000 | 2352 | 27.84 | 1.170 | 0.358 | 0.775 | 0.164 |
Highest household qual: other higher | 2674 | 13.83 | 1.535* | 0.000 | 1187 | 14.05 | 1.287 | 0.155 | 0.892 | 0.549 |
Highest household qual: A level | 3718 | 19.23 | 1.579* | 0.000 | 1690 | 20.00 | 1.269 | 0.149 | 0.889 | 0.488 |
Highest household qual: GCSE | 3253 | 16.83 | 1.514* | 0.000 | 1539 | 18.22 | 1.269 | 0.160 | 0.956 | 0.789 |
Ref: other or no qualification | 3957 | 20.47 | – | – | 1681 | 19.90 | – | – | – | – |
Highest SEC: management and professional | 6357 | 32.88 | 1.293* | 0.000 | 2472 | 29.26 | 1.646* | 0.001 | 0.462* | 0.000 |
Highest SEC: intermediate | 1676 | 8.67 | 1.429* | 0.000 | 758 | 8.97 | 1.465* | 0.032 | 0.576* | 0.011 |
Highest SEC: small employers and own account | 1138 | 5.89 | 1.096 | 0.197 | 453 | 5.36 | 2.276* | 0.000 | 0.295* | 0.000 |
Highest SEC: lower supervisory and technical | 770 | 3.98 | 1.583* | 0.000 | 363 | 4.30 | 2.559* | 0.000 | 0.696 | 0.185 |
Highest SEC: semi routine, routine and never worked/unemployed | 2431 | 12.57 | 1.709* | 0.000 | 1248 | 14.77 | 1.426* | 0.024 | 0.648* | 0.011 |
Ref: no employment status | 6962 | 36.01 | – | – | 3155 | 37.34 | – | – | – | – |
Wave 1 neighbourhood context | ||||||||||
Area: inner London | 1442 | 7.46 | 0.792* | 0.028 | 544 | 6.44 | 0.355* | 0.002 | 3.320* | 0.001 |
Area: outer London | 2077 | 10.74 | 1.252* | 0.004 | 966 | 11.43 | 0.554* | 0.007 | 1.439 | 0.231 |
Area: metropolitan areas | 3148 | 16.28 | 1.114 | 0.115 | 1414 | 16.74 | 0.956 | 0.811 | 1.007 | 0.981 |
Area: large urban (250k+) | 2175 | 11.25 | 1.148 | 0.056 | 985 | 11.66 | 0.803 | 0.284 | 1.273 | 0.384 |
Area: medium urban (25k–250k) | 4810 | 24.88 | 1.171* | 0.008 | 2191 | 25.93 | 0.936 | 0.689 | 1.184 | 0.493 |
Area: small urban (10k–25k) | 1405 | 7.27 | 1.211* | 0.007 | 647 | 7.66 | 0.723 | 0.112 | 1.589 | 0.092 |
Area: very small urban (3k–10k) | 1010 | 5.22 | 1.105 | 0.200 | 432 | 5.11 | 1.163 | 0.472 | 0.949 | 0.880 |
Ref: area:rural | 3267 | 16.9 | – | – | 1270 | 15.03 | – | – | – | – |
Number of bus stops in LSOA |
10.92
|
11.42
| 0.997 | 0.080 |
10.60
|
10.58
| 1.001 | 0.825 | 1.002 | 0.720 |
Rail station in LSOA or neighbouring LSOA | 6765 | 34.99 | 0.991 | 0.794 | 2926 | 34.63 | 0.968 | 0.731 | 0.844 | 0.160 |
Travel time to nearest employment centre by PT/walk (min) |
9.56
|
5.40
| 1.003 | 0.449 |
9.43
|
5.29
| 1.016 | 0.064 | 0.932* | 0.001 |
No. of emp centres with 100+ jobs accessible by PT/walk |
7.14
|
0.99
| 1.026 | 0.366 |
7.17
|
0.97
| 0.950 | 0.497 | 1.137 | 0.264 |
Travel time to nearest town centre by PT/walk (min) |
16.45
|
10.70
| 0.998 | 0.307 |
16.11
|
10.55
| 1.003 | 0.583 | 0.997 | 0.731 |
No. of foodstores accessible by PT/walk |
3.45
|
1.01
| 1.023 | 0.389 |
3.48
|
0.99
| 1.123 | 0.105 | 0.847 | 0.090 |
Overall index of multiple deprivation score |
23.11
|
16.20
| 0.999 | 0.424 |
23.33
|
15.80
| 0.982* | 0.000 | 1.014* | 0.015 |
Living environment index of multiple deprivation score |
22.66
|
17.16
| 1.003* | 0.020 |
22.94
|
16.94
| 0.999 | 0.855 | 1.006 | 0.119 |
MSOA population density (persons/HA) |
32.94
|
33.12
| 1.000 | 0.628 |
33.09
|
31.66
| 0.996 | 0.085 | 1.000 | 0.961 |
LSOA proportion economically active |
0.63
|
0.10
| 1.389 | 0.183 |
0.63
|
0.10
| 0.739 | 0.649 | 0.614 | 0.574 |
Ethnic minority boost sample household | 2589 | 13.39 | 1.014 | 0.795 | 1117 | 13.22 | 1.381* | 0.023 | 1.068 | 0.692 |
Constant | – | – | 0.308* | 0.000 | – | – | 0.057* | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.099 |
n | 19,334 | 8449 | 8449 | |||||||
Successes (n/ %) | 8449 | 43.70 | 737 | 8.72 | 460 | 5.4 | ||||
Pseudo R-squared | 0.045 | 0.180 | 0.202 |
Variable | 2 Car: wave 1 cross-sectional | 2–1 or fewer cars | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n/\( \overline{x} \)
a
| %/SDb
| Odds ratio | P > z | n/\( \overline{x} \)
a
| %/SDb
| Odds ratio | P > z | |
Life events | ||||||||
Residential relocation | 1426 | 7.38 | – | – | 320 | 6.29 | 1.825* | 0.001 |
Change in urbanity (−2: less urban to +2: more urban) |
0.00
|
0.15
| – | – |
0.00
|
0.14
| 1.525 | 0.209 |
Change in no. of bus stops | −0.01
|
4.09
| – | – |
0.07
|
5.20
| 1.005 | 0.743 |
Change in rail station proximity (gain = +1, loss = −1) |
0.00
|
0.16
| – | – |
0.00
|
0.20
| 0.856 | 0.609 |
Change in travel time to nearest employment centre by PT/walk (min) |
0.01
|
1.45
| – | – | −0.09
|
1.46
| 0.991 | 0.777 |
Change in no. of foodstores accessible by PT/walk |
0.00
|
0.27
| – | – |
0.04
|
0.38
| 1.161 | 0.465 |
Change in MSOA population density | −0.09
|
8.31
| – | – |
0.87
|
9.84
| 1.012 | 0.060 |
Householder gained partner | 447 | 2.31 | – | – | 63 | 1.24 | 0.558 | 0.099 |
Householder lost partner | 372 | 1.92 | – | – | 109 | 2.14 | 6.505* | 0.000 |
Householder gained employment | 1525 | 7.89 | – | – | 469 | 9.22 | 1.064 | 0.698 |
Householder lost employment (excl retirement) | 1023 | 5.29 | – | – | 319 | 6.27 | 1.728* | 0.005 |
Householder retired | 355 | 1.84 | – | – | 146 | 2.87 | 1.535 | 0.109 |
Householder switched employer | 1647 | 8.52 | – | – | 613 | 12.05 | 0.987 | 0.934 |
Householder had child | 622 | 3.22 | – | – | 210 | 4.13 | 2.094* | 0.003 |
Householder had child and householder lost employment | 200 | 32.15 | – | – | 91 | 43.33 | 0.249* | 0.004 |
Householder acquired driving licence | 794 | 4.11 | – | – | 146 | 2.87 | 0.939 | 0.834 |
No. of adults increased | 1338 | 6.92 | – | – | 348 | 6.84 | 0.622 | 0.094 |
No. of adults reduced | 1344 | 6.95 | – | – | 396 | 7.78 | 6.867* | 0.000 |
Wave 1 household has divided by wave 2 | 690 | 3.57 | – | – | 223 | 4.38 | 2.193* | 0.001 |
Change in income (£1000/month) |
0.20
|
2.33
| – | – |
0.24
|
2.85
| 0.858* | 0.000 |
Wave 1 household structure and life stage | ||||||||
HH size 1 person | 4559 | 23.58 | 0.221* | 0.000 | 138 | 2.71 | 2.574* | 0.000 |
HH size 3 people | 3269 | 16.91 | 0.854* | 0.012 | 1059 | 20.81 | 0.806 | 0.201 |
HH size 4+ people | 4953 | 25.62 | 0.844* | 0.023 | 1815 | 35.67 | 0.894 | 0.595 |
Ref: HH size 2 people | 6553 | 33.89 | – | – | 2076 | 40.80 | – | – |
Cohabiting relationship in HH | 11,649 | 60.25 | 2.941* | 0.000 | 4561 | 89.64 | 0.445* | 0.000 |
Child present in HH | 7163 | 37.05 | 0.985 | 0.848 | 2354 | 46.27 | 1.189 | 0.392 |
Eldest householder 16–24 | 542 | 2.80 | 0.541* | 0.000 | 49 | 0.96 | 1.417 | 0.377 |
Eldest householder 25–29 | 993 | 5.14 | 0.695* | 0.000 | 192 | 3.77 | 1.834* | 0.010 |
Eldest householder 30–44 | 5515 | 28.52 | 0.939 | 0.228 | 1678 | 32.98 | 1.199 | 0.169 |
Eldest householder 60–74 | 4440 | 22.96 | 1.243* | 0.000 | 1156 | 22.72 | 1.075 | 0.623 |
Eldest householder 75+ | 2043 | 10.57 | 0.692* | 0.000 | 197 | 3.87 | 1.357 | 0.212 |
Ref: Eldest householder 45–59 | 5801 | 30.00 | – | – | 1816 | 35.69 | – | – |
Child 0–2 present in HH | 2028 | 10.49 | 1.137 | 0.081 | 639 | 12.56 | 1.301 | 0.129 |
Child 3–4 present in HH | 1419 | 7.34 | 1.104 | 0.204 | 470 | 9.24 | 1.304 | 0.143 |
Child 5–11 present in HH | 3565 | 18.44 | 1.275* | 0.000 | 1208 | 23.74 | 1.021 | 0.899 |
Child 12–15 present in HH | 2390 | 12.36 | 1.100 | 0.172 | 785 | 15.43 | 0.824 | 0.282 |
Offspring aged 16 present in HH | 794 | 4.11 | 1.072 | 0.462 | 262 | 5.15 | 1.155 | 0.656 |
Wave 1 household socio-demographic | ||||||||
Income (£1000/month) |
3.07
|
2.66
| 1.046* | 0.000 |
4.37
|
2.89
| 0.829* | 0.000 |
Highest household qual: degree | 5732 | 29.65 | 1.955* | 0.000 | 2128 | 41.82 | 0.443* | 0.000 |
Highest household qual: other higher | 2674 | 13.83 | 1.870* | 0.000 | 866 | 17.02 | 0.484* | 0.000 |
Highest household qual: A level | 3718 | 19.23 | 1.656* | 0.000 | 1033 | 20.30 | 0.496* | 0.000 |
Highest household qual: GCSE | 3253 | 16.83 | 1.450* | 0.000 | 688 | 13.52 | 0.566* | 0.002 |
Ref: other or no qualification | 3957 | 20.47 | – | – | 373 | 7.33 | – | – |
Highest SEC: management and professional | 6357 | 32.88 | 2.774* | 0.000 | 2651 | 52.10 | 1.079 | 0.654 |
Highest SEC: intermediate | 1676 | 8.67 | 2.415* | 0.000 | 541 | 10.63 | 1.106 | 0.609 |
Highest SEC: small employers and own account | 1138 | 5.89 | 3.319* | 0.000 | 455 | 8.94 | 0.726 | 0.130 |
Highest SEC: lower supervisory and technical | 770 | 3.98 | 2.227* | 0.000 | 224 | 4.40 | 1.216 | 0.429 |
Highest SEC: semi routine, routine and never worked/unemployed | 2431 | 12.57 | 1.670* | 0.000 | 464 | 9.12 | 1.366 | 0.097 |
Ref: no employment status | 6962 | 36.01 | – | – | 753 | 14.80 | – | – |
Wave 1 neighbourhood context | ||||||||
Area: inner London | 1442 | 7.46 | 0.354* | 0.000 | 100 | 1.97 | 3.380* | 0.003 |
Area: outer London | 2077 | 10.74 | 0.612* | 0.000 | 460 | 9.04 | 1.894* | 0.007 |
Area: metropolitan areas | 3148 | 16.28 | 0.861 | 0.073 | 661 | 12.99 | 1.476 | 0.065 |
Area: large urban (250k+) | 2175 | 11.25 | 0.884 | 0.164 | 536 | 10.53 | 1.423 | 0.110 |
Area: medium urban (25k–250k) | 4810 | 24.88 | 0.867* | 0.043 | 1323 | 26.00 | 1.350 | 0.098 |
Area: small urban (10k–25k) | 1405 | 7.27 | 0.806* | 0.011 | 411 | 8.08 | 0.877 | 0.579 |
Area: very small urban (3k–10k) | 1010 | 5.22 | 0.921 | 0.367 | 348 | 6.84 | 1.002 | 0.994 |
Ref:area:rural | 3267 | 16.90 | – | – | 1249 | 24.55 | – | – |
Number of bus stops in LSOA |
10.92
|
11.42
| 0.998 | 0.234 |
11.60
|
10.21
| 1.001 | 0.829 |
Rail station in LSOA or neighbouring LSOA | 6765 | 34.99 | 0.898* | 0.009 | 1711 | 33.63 | 1.052 | 0.632 |
Travel time to nearest employment centre by PT/walk (min) |
9.56
|
5.40
| 0.999 | 0.727 |
11.19
|
7.43
| 1.022* | 0.035 |
No. of emp centres with 100+ jobs accessible by PT/walk |
7.14
|
0.99
| 1.022 | 0.523 |
6.69
|
1.13
| 0.990 | 0.904 |
Travel time to nearest town centre by PT/walk (min) |
16.45
|
10.70
| 1.002 | 0.325 |
19.66
|
13.11
| 0.996 | 0.543 |
No. of foodstores accessible by PT/walk |
3.45
|
1.01
| 0.923* | 0.015 |
2.98
|
1.05
| 1.077 | 0.371 |
Overall index of multiple deprivation score |
23.11
|
16.20
| 0.980* | 0.000 |
16.49
|
12.42
| 1.017* | 0.004 |
Living environment index of multiple deprivation score |
22.66
|
17.16
| 0.995* | 0.007 |
17.19
|
14.24
| 1.001 | 0.824 |
MSOA population density (persons/HA) |
32.94
|
33.12
| 0.996* | 0.002 |
23.02
|
24.47
| 1.000 | 0.958 |
LSOA proportion economically active |
0.63
|
0.10
| 1.027 | 0.932 |
0.66
|
0.08
| 1.585 | 0.557 |
Ethnic minority boost sample household | 2589 | 13.39 | 0.825* | 0.009 | 371 | 7.29 | 1.659* | 0.004 |
Constant | – | – | 0.140* | 0.000 | – | – | 0.190 | 0.053 |
n | 19,334 | 5088 | ||||||
Successes (n/ %) | 5088 | 26.32 | 768 | 15.09 | ||||
Pseudo R-squared | 0.243 | 0.259 |
Cross-sectional models
The zero to one car level change
Baseline conditions
Life events
The one to zero car level change
Baseline conditions
Life events
The one to two car level change
Baseline conditions
Life events
The two to one/zero car level change
Baseline conditions
Life events
Predicted probabilities for illustrative cases
Zero car and zero to one car level change | Prob 0 cara (%) | Prob 0–1b(%) |
---|---|---|
1. Single occupancy household, <29, no children, no qualifications, no employment | 69.0 | |
No life event | 3.5 | |
Gain driving licence | 20.3 | |
Gain partner & adult | 34.2 | |
2. Two person household, cohabiting, <29, no children, no qualifications, no employment | 35.9 | |
No life event | 5.3 | |
Gain employment | 7.3 | |
Have child | 10.9 |
One car and one to two car level change | Prob 1 cara (%) | Prob 1–2b (%) |
---|---|---|
3. Single occupancy household, 30–44, no children, degree, management | 50.9 | |
No life event | 4.0 | |
Gain partner & adult | 48.6 | |
4. Four person household, cohabiting, 30–44, with children 5–15, degree, semi-routine | 53.3 | |
No life event | 9.5 | |
Gain employment | 15.5 | |
Switch employment | 14.6 | |
5. Four person household, cohabiting, 45–59, with children 12–16, degree, management | 38.8 | |
No life event | 3.4 | |
Gain driving licence (e.g. offspring) | 9.3 |
Two car and two to one car level change | Prob 2 cara (%) | Prob 2–1b (%) |
---|---|---|
6. Three person household, cohabiting, 30–44, with children <3, degree, management | 35.9 | |
No life event | 9.0 | |
Have child | 17.2 | |
Lose employment | 14.6 | |
Have child and lose employment | 8.2 | |
7. Four person household, cohabiting, 45-59, with children 5-11, degree, management | 39.9 | |
No life event | 6.7 | |
Move home | 11.6 | |
Lose partner | 31.9 | |
Move home and lose partner | 46.1 |
One car and one to zero car level change | Prob 1 cara (%) | Prob 1–0b (%) |
---|---|---|
8. Four person household, cohabiting, 45–59, with children 5–15, GCSE, semi-routine | 49.4 | |
No life event | 1.6 | |
Lose employment | 3.4 | |
Move home | 3.3 | |
Lose partner | 4.4 |
Summary and implications for research and policy
Life event | 0–1 car | 1–2 car | 2–1 car | 1–0 car |
---|---|---|---|---|
Family biography | ||||
Gain an adult | ++ | +++ | −a
| |
Lose an adult | +++ | ++ | ||
Gain partner | ++ | ++ |
–
| |
Lose partner | +++ | ++ | ||
Had child | ++ | ++ | ||
Acquired driving licence | +++ | ++ |
–
| |
Residential biography | ||||
Residential relocation | + | ++ | ||
Increase in number of bus stops | +a
| |||
Increase in pop dens | –a
| +a
| ||
Employment biography | ||||
Gain employment | + | + |
–
| |
Switch employer | + | |||
Lose employment | + | ++ | ||
Retire | ++a
|