nach oben

Erschienen in:

2024 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Characterising the Islamic Financial Cycle in Indonesia Post-Pandemic Era: Markov Switching Approach

verfasst von : Irfan Nurfalah, Aam Slamet Rusydiana, Nisful Laila, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Luthfi Nur Rosyidi

Erschienen in: Technology and Business Model Innovation: Challenges and Opportunities

Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

Numerous scholars have conducted studies on the conventional financial cycle, yet there is a lack of scholarly discourse on the distinct Islamic financial cycle. However, Islamic finance plays a significant role within a nation’s economic framework, particularly in regions with a predominantly Islamic population. This study integrates variables from Islamic banking, the Islamic capital market, and macroeconomics, covering the period from 2009 to 2022. The research employs the MSVAR methodology to identify and analyze transitions between distinct regimes. The findings indicate that the duration of the deceleration regime phase is longer than the accelerated regime phase, lasting approximately 9 years versus 5 years. Furthermore, the study reveals that the six variables examined significantly impact Indonesia’s economic growth, with each variable displaying a unique response to shocks.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel How to Mitigate the SMEs Supply Chain Risk During the Pandemic in Indonesia with Failure Mode and Effect Analysis?

Nächstes Kapitel Evaluating the Impact of Diaspora Contributions to Economic Growth and Development in Nigeria: A Housing Finance and Infrastructure Perspective 1998–2023

Abel, A.B., Bernanke, B.S., Croushore, D.: Macroeconomics, 7th edn. Pearson Education, London (2011)

Adamauskas, S., Krušinskas, R.: Financial investment timing strategies under the influence of countries economical cycle. The case of Lithuania. Econ. Manag. 17, 45–54 (2012)

Adewiyah, R., Bawono, A.: The effect of Islamic capital market instruments on Indonesia’s economic growth is moderated by the money supply. Islamiconomic: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam 14(1), 73–96 (2023)

Alandejani, M.: Does issuing Islamic bonds through banks increase banking efficiency? Heliyon 8(8), e10041 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10041CrossRef

Amanda, C.: The risk of sub-prime mortgage crisis and COVID-19 pandemic: lesson learned from Indonesia. Indones. J. Bus. Entrepreneurship 7(1), 73–81 (2021)

Anita, S.S., Tasnova, N., Nawar, N.: Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? An empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries. Future Bus. J. 8(1) (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-022-00117-9

Atigala, P., Maduwanthi, T., Gunathilake, V., Sathsarani, S., Jayathilaka, R.: Driving the pulse of the economy or the dilution effect: inflation impacting economic growth. PLoS ONE 17(8 August), 1–17 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273379

Borio, C.: The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learnt? BIS Working Papers No 395. ISSN 1682-7678 (online). BIS Working Papers, p. 395 (2012)

Borio, C.: The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learnt? J. Bank. Finance 45(1), 182–198 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.031CrossRef

Castro, C., Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., Kizys, R.: Time-varying relation between oil shocks and European stock market returns. J. Risk Financ. Manag. 16(3) (2023). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16030174

Chairil, T.: Indonesian government’s COVID-19 measures, January–May 2020: late response and public health securitization. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik 24(2), 128–152 (2020). https://doi.org/10.22146/jsp.55863

Cheong, C.W., Lai, N.S., Yusof, N.A.M., Ying, K.C., Fosee, F.: The impact of subprime mortgage crisis to long-run and short-run volatility components of Indonesian and Malaysian equity markets. J. Interdisc. Math. 15(2–3), 207–228 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1080/09720502.2012.10700796CrossRef

Davis, J.S., van Wincoop, E.: A theory of the global financial cycle. In: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization Institute Working Papers, 2021(410) (2021). https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp410

Dinata, A.V., Oktora, S.I.: Pengaruh Quantitative Easing dan Tapering Off serta Indikator Makroekonomi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah. Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan 4(1), 64–85 (2020). https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v4i1.520

Ekinci, R., Tüzün, O., Ceylan, F.: The relationship between inflation and economic growth: experiences of some inflation targeting countries. Financ. Monetary Res. Bucharest 24(1), 6–20 (2020). http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/inflation-targets.html

Fahrian, D., Seftarita, C.: The effects of Sukuk (Islamic bonds) in the economy. In: 6th Annual International Conference Syiah Kuala University (AIC Unsyah) in Conjuction with the 12th International Conference on Mathematics, Statistics and Its Application (ICMSA), pp. 257–261 (2016)

Filardo, A.J., Lombardi, M.J., Raczko, M.A.: Measuring financial cycle time. SSRN Electron. J. 755 (2019). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3322618

Foglia, M.: Non-performing loans and macroeconomics factors: the Italian case. Risks 10(1) (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/RISKS10010021

Gan, S., Cheng, D.: Exchange rate appreciation, R&D, and export sophistication: evidence from China. J. Int. Trade Econ. Dev. 29(2), 237–246 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1657171CrossRef

Ginting, A.L., Widyawati, R.F.: Analysis of commercial bank credit distribution on economic growth and employment absorption in Indonesia. OPTIMUM: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan 12(1), 33–40 (2022). https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v12i1.4493

Gudmundsson, T., et al.: Emerging markets: prospects and challenges. J. Policy Model. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.09.012CrossRef

Harahap, B.A., Bary, P., Kusuma, M.A.C.: Working paper the determinants of Indonesian business cycle the determinants of Indonesian business cycle. In: Working Paper of Central Bank of Indonesia, vol. 30, pp. 1–41 (2018)

Harun, C.A., Taruna, A.A., Nattan, R.R., Surjaningsih, N.: Financial cycle of Indonesia – potential forward looking. In: BI Working Paper, vol. 9, pp. 1–44 (2014)

Ho, S.H., Saadaoui, J.: Bank credit and economic growth: a dynamic threshold panel model for ASEAN countries. Int. Econ. 170, 115–128 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2022.03.001CrossRef

IMF: World Economic Outlook, Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers (Issue May) (2019)

Immergluck, D.: A look back: what we now know about the causes of the US mortgage crisis. Int. J. Urban Sci. 19(3), 269–285 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2015.1044460CrossRef

Jiménez, J., Francisco, P.: Business cycles in small open economies: the case of costa RICI. In: ISS Working Paper, vol. 1, pp. 1–27 (2001)

John, K.K., Michael, J.N.: Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on metal exchange. In: Aloysius Edward, J., Jaheer Mukthar, K.P., Asis, E.R., Sivasubramanian, K. (eds.) ICEBS 2023. CESIBT, pp. 273–285. Springer, Singapore (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3366-2_32

Joseph, B.: Impact of Covid 19 on oil prices, gold prices and Indian stock market. In: Aloysius Edward, J., Jaheer Mukthar, K.P., Asis, E.R., Sivasubramanian, K. (eds.) ICEBS 2023. CESIBT, pp.265–272. Springer, Singapore (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3366-2_31

Joseph, S.F., Peter Leo Deepak, J.: A study on CBDCS and e-Rupee with special reference to e-Yuan. In: Aloysius Edward, J., Jaheer Mukthar, K.P., Asis, E.R., Sivasubramanian, K. (eds.) ICEBS 2023. CESIBT, pp. 239–247. Springer, Singapore (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3366-2_28

Junaidi, J., Jamal, A., Syahnur, S.: Sukuk and endogenous growth in Indonesia: generalized method of moments approach. Adv. Soc. Sci. Educ. Human. Res. 292(Agc), 633–639 (2019). https://doi.org/10.2991/agc-18.2019.95

Karahan, Ö.: Influence of exchange rate on the economic growth in the Turkish economy. Financ. Assets Invest. 11(1), 21–34 (2020). https://doi.org/10.5817/fai2020-1-2CrossRef

Keynes, J.M.: The general theory of employment, interest and money. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 99(2), 383–388 (1936)CrossRef

Khim, V., Liew, S.: Which lag length selection criteria should we employ? Universiti Putra Malaysia: Econ. Bull. 3(33), 1–9 (2004)

Krolzig, H.: Predicting Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes, 1998, pp. 1–30 (2000)

Ledhem, M.A.: Does Sukuk financing boost economic growth? Empirical evidence from Southeast Asia. PSU Res. Rev. 6(3), 141–157 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1108/PRR-09-2020-0028CrossRef

Marsi, G.G., Wardani, D.T.K.: The influence of Sharia capital market, Sharia bonds (Sukuk), and BI rate on gross domestic products (GDP) in Indonesia. J. Econ. Res. Soc. Sci. 4(2), 149–162 (2020). https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v4i2.10156

Meidhany, S.S., Kismawadi, E.R., Zulkarnaini, Z., Bahri, M.I.: Do Islamic financial instruments and inflation affect Indonesia’s economic growth? J. Finance Islamic Bank. 5(1) (2022).https://medium.com/@arifwicaksanaa/pengertian-use-case-a7e576e1b6bf

Mishkin, F.: The channels of monetary transmission: lessons for monetary policy. In: NBER Working Paper Series, pp. 1–29 (1996). http://www.nber.org/papers/w5464.pdf?new_window=1%5Cnpapers2://publication/uuid/E7FD0848-77D9-4893-A4F5-579BFFF16DE9

Naz, S.A., Gulzar, S.: Impact of Islamic finance on economic growth: an empirical analysis of Muslim countries. Singap. Econ. Rev. 67(1), 245–265 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590819420062CrossRef

Nurfalah, I., Rusydiana, A.S.: The regime switching of cycle instability of Islamic banking and the economy: evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pakistan. J. Islamic Monetary Econ. Financ. 7(2), 233–262 (2021). https://doi.org/10.21098/jimf.v7i2.1362

Nurfalah, I., Rusydiana, A.S., Laila, N., Cahyono, E.F.: Early warning to banking crises in the dual financial system in Indonesia: the Markov switching approach. J. King Abdul Aziz Univ.: Islamic Econ. 31(2), 133–156 (2018). https://doi.org/10.4197/IslecCrossRef

Philip, B., Bajaj, K., Pareek, W.: Indian rupee: is it unpredictable? A regression model to predict the value of the Indian rupee. In: Aloysius Edward, J., Jaheer Mukthar, K.P., Asis, E.R., Sivasubramanian, K. (eds.) ICEBS 2023. CESIBT, pp. 127–143. Springer, Singapore (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3366-2_16

Rahman, A., Khan, M.A., Charfeddine, L.: Financial development–economic growth nexus in Pakistan: new evidence from the Markov switching model. Cogent Econ. Finance 8(1), 1–16 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1716446CrossRef

Ridlo, M., Muthohar, A.M., Masruhan, K.M.: The impact of Zakah, Islamic financing, Sukuk and inflation on national economic growth with poverty as a moderation variable. Falah: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah 6(1), 17–29 (2020). https://doi.org/10.22219/jes.v6i1.14993

Ridlo, M., Yunianto, T., Rohmah, I.A.: The effect of exchange rate, Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and Indonesian Sharia Bank Certificate (SBIS) on Islamic mutual funds growth with inflation as a moderate variable. Al-Amwal: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syari’ah 13(1), 1 (2021). https://doi.org/10.24235/amwal.v13i1.7663

Rosas, G.: Bagehot or bailout? An analysis of government responses to banking crises. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 50(1), 175–191 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00177.xCrossRef

Saleem, A., Setiawan, B., Bárczi, J., Sági, J.: Achieving sustainable economic growth: analysis of Islamic debt and the Islamic equity market. Sustainability (Switzerland) 13(15) (2021). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158319

Sari, S., AK, P.S., Widiyanti, M.: the impact of Islamic capital market development on economic growth: the case of Indonesia. J. Smart Econ. Growth 3(2), 21–30 (2018)

Schüler, Y.S., Hiebert, P., Peltonen, T.A.: Characterising the financial cycle: a multivariate and time-varying approach. SSRN Electron. J. 1846 (2021). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2664126

Septiarini, T., Taufik, M., Afif, M., Masrifah, A.: Analysis of macroeconomics factor affecting Jakarta Islamic index. In: Proceedings of the 7th ASEAN Universities International Conference on Islamic Finance, pp. 19–22 (2020). https://doi.org/10.5220/0009864700190022

Shiratsuka, S.: Size and composition of the central bank balance sheet: revisiting Japan’s experience of the quantitative easing policy. In: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers, vol. 2010, no. 42 (2010). https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp42

Sitorus, L.E.: Judicial review of administrative action: reflection on the bank century bailout policy. Indonesia Law Rev. 6(April), 79–96 (2016)

Stremmel, H.: Capturing the financial cycle in Europe. In: European Central Bank Working Paper Series, p. 1811 (2021). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2621651

Strohsal, T., Proaño, C.R., Wolters, J.: Characterizing the financial cycle: evidence from a frequency domain analysis. J. Bank. Finance 106, 568–591 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.06.010CrossRef

Viphindrartin, S., Yunitasari, D., Wilantari, R.N.: Analysis of United States quantitative easing policy on real output in Indonesia. J. Indones. Appl. Econ. 9(2), 60–65 (2021). https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jiae.2021.009.02.7

Wahyuningsih, D., Ningsih, U.P.: The effect of foreign debt on the exchange rate and its impact on monetary policy in Indonesia. Media Trend 14(1), 128–135 (2019). https://doi.org/10.21107/mediatrend.v14i1.5047

Wang, P.: Financial Econometrics. Mathematical Finance, 2nd edn. Taylor & Francis e-Library (2009)

Zhang, P., Zhang, M., Zhou, Q., Zaidi, S.A.H.: The relationship among financial inclusion, non-performing loans, and economic growth: insights from OECD countries. Front. Psychol. 13(July), 1–11 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.939426CrossRef

Titel: Characterising the Islamic Financial Cycle in Indonesia Post-Pandemic Era: Markov Switching Approach
verfasst von: Irfan Nurfalah
Aam Slamet Rusydiana
Nisful Laila
Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum
Luthfi Nur Rosyidi
Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland
Buch: Technology and Business Model Innovation: Challenges and Opportunities
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-53997-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-031-53998-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-53998-5_3

Premium Partner

Marktübersichten

Die im Laufe eines Jahres in der „adhäsion“ veröffentlichten Marktübersichten helfen Anwendern verschiedenster Branchen, sich einen gezielten Überblick über Lieferantenangebote zu verschaffen.

Zur Marktübersicht

Bildnachweise

MKVS GbR/© MKVS GbR, Nordson/© Nordson, ViscoTec/© ViscoTec, BCD Chemie GmbH, Merz+Benteli/© Merz+Benteli, Robatech/© Robatech, Hermann Otto GmbH/© Hermann Otto GmbH, Ruderer Klebetechnik GmbH, Fere/© Fere, Xometry Europe GmbH/© Xometry Europe GmbH, Scheugenpflug/© Scheugenpflug, Sika/© Sika, Medmix/© Medmix, Kisling AG/© Kisling AG, Dosmatix GmbH/© Dosmatix GmbH, Innotech GmbH/© Innotech GmbH, Hilger u. Kern GmbH, VDI Logo/© VDI Wissensforum GmbH

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Marktübersichten