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Über dieses Buch

This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing result from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction

Abstract
In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.

Chapter 2. A Review of China’s Economy in the First Half of 2014

Abstract
In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.

Chapter 3. Forecast of China’s Economy for 2014–2015

Abstract
In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.

Chapter 4. Policy Simulations

Abstract
In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.

Chapter 5. Conclusions and Suggestions

Abstract
In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.

Chapter 6. A Survey of Chinese Economists on China’s Macroeconomic Performance in 2014

Abstract
In 2014, the decreasing trend of economy growth will continue. In the first half year of 2014, compared with the same period of the last year, the GDP grew 7.4 %, which was the lowest for the past 4 years.
In the past 3 years, the central government has been applying the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies to relieve downward pressure of China’s economy, and to maintain growth above 7.5 %. The effects of micro-stimulus policies on economy growth are continuously diminishing:
Based on the features of the economy circle and the economy of “the new normal”, China should appropriately set a lower economic growth target, which will be conducive to appropriately reduce the government intervention of market, and help to greatly cut the cost of macroeconomic controls and operations. Thus, we need to investigate the effects of giving up micro-stimulus policies and reducing the economic growth target on other major macroeconomic indicators.
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