Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

2. China Through the Looking Glass

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 1. The Grip of Geography: China’s Enduring Struggle for Order and Unity

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      Geography exerts a profound influence on a country’s dominant narrative, power structures, and political institutions. This chapter aims to explain why and how China’s geography has shaped its enduring centralised power structure. The chapter is structured on three crucial factors: China’s long history of coping with natural disasters such as large-scale floods, constant and devastating famines due to adverse weather and limited food imports, as well as severe security threats from a vulnerable northwest border. This chapter argues that these factors have influenced the Chinese conception of power. It is seen as a means to prevent collective destruction and promote collective prosperity. They also shaped a pragmatic approach to the role of government and political institutions that prioritise providing food and ensuring survival, as well as impacted the early conceptualisation of ‘collective security’. This chapter employs a comparative approach, contrasting the geographical features of Chinese and Western civilisations to illustrate these points.

   3. Chapter 2. Crafting Legitimacy: The Entangling Balancing Act

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      The long Chinese history can be understood as a succession of dynasties, each beginning with a virtuous ruler and ending with an unworthy one. At the core of these cycles lies the enduring political philosophy question: what defines a good ruler? And what legitimises their power? This chapter aims to explore the notion of legitimacy within the Chinese historical context, analysing its impact on the nation’s structural political framework and decision-making processes. It also delves into the contemporary implications this concept holds for the CCP. This chapter argues that the economic performance of the CCP serves as a crucial pillar supporting its legitimacy in the short to medium term. However, as we look towards the future, it becomes evident that two distinct factors can potentially instigate shifts in its legitimacy over the long haul. The first stems from domestic challenges, such as rising inequality, changing expectations, substantial debt burden, and demographic transformations. The second factor involves dramatic transformation in the global environment that may prompt the CCP’s internal ecology to change and adapt.

   4. Chapter 3. Birdcage Economy: Who Holds the Strings of China’s Economy?

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      The growing tension between the CCP and the Chinese private sector, coupled with the CCP’s extensive economic intervention, has sparked concerns both within China and around the world. This chapter aims to unpack the origins of this enduring tension by examining China’s unique historical and geographical contexts. It argues that a primary cause of the tension stems from the deep-rooted mistrust towards businessmen and capitalists, who are perceived as rivals to the state in competition for power and the decision-making process of ‘who gets what, when, and how’. Consequently, the Chinese regime can only conditionally accept private sector growth and the organic development of market conditions to the extent that it does not jeopardise political and social stability. This chapter contributes to the ongoing debate on state intervention and state-owned enterprises by offering an interpretation through the ancient Chinese concept of Yin-yang, emphasising the importance of incorporating negative feedback loops to achieve equilibrium between opposing ideas, instead of prioritising and optimising one extreme, thereby averting any radical outcomes.

   5. Chapter 4. A Fusion of Worlds: Interplay of Chinese Tradition and Marxism

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      Political philosophy significantly contributes to shaping a country’s logic of governance and policy developments. This chapter argues that, although China is defined as a ‘communist regime’, its traditional political philosophies exert a greater influence on its contemporary logic of governance than Marxism–Leninism. Contemporary China can be regarded as a hybrid model—with Marxism serving as the guiding state ideology and traditional political philosophies, namely, the ‘rule of ritual’, the ‘rule of law’, and the ‘rule of virtue’, forming the underlying logic of governance. This chapter is structured to sequentially explain the origins of these three political philosophies and their influences on modern China’s governance and decision-making. Additionally, it delves into the interplay between Chinese traditional political philosophies and Marxism in the contemporary era. The chapter argues that the recent resurgence of Marxism does not intend to replace the foundational governance ethos moulded by traditional political philosophies, nor does it seek to ignite fresh class conflicts. Rather, it serves as an instrument to strengthen the rule of the CCP, reinforce its state economic strategy, and rally the populace under a shared national ideology.

   6. Chapter 5. A Contested System: Decision-Making Dynamics in China

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      Absolute autocracy—where central institutions exert a strict monopoly on all aspects of power—exists only in theory. In reality, a state must rely on a network of trusted individuals to implement orders from the centre. This chapter discusses the complex power dynamics between the central and local governments in China, arguing that the policy-making process is a contested one, characterised by inter- and intra-government competition, as opposed to being driven by a unitary rational actor. To understand these dynamics, the chapter proposes examining them through the lenses of ‘trust’ and ‘agent’ relationships, as well as ‘formal’ and ‘informal’ interactions between the Chinese central and local governments. Additionally, it explores various historical strategies China has adopted to unify norms and values across civilian and military bodies, balance national unity with regional diversity, and how these historical approaches are currently being put into practice. Drawing on this analysis, the chapter offers a practical approach for external parties to engage in more effective advocacy and diplomacy with China by unpacking the core of the Chinese decision-making process and identifying key points of influence to achieve desired outcomes.

3. Over the Mountains and Across the Seas

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 6. Capability or Intention: Ambition and Restraint in China’s Military Build-Up

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      As China’s global influence expands, what will be the shape and content of its global ambitions? Will China seek to expand its power through territorial acquisition, co-opting client states, or trade? Most crucially, under what circumstances will China regard as situations where it has no choice but to threaten, or even use military force? To answer those questions, this chapter aims to provide a framework through which to view changes and continuities of China’s intent behind its military build-up. The argument is that China’s ‘invasion-prone’ geography, conservative worldview, pragmatic military strategy and historical lessons demonstrate that war and territorial expansion do not assure enduring security, and may even lead to a decline in central power. This has fostered a Chinese strategic tradition that leans more towards defence than offence, and coexistence rather than aggression. The primary motive behind strengthening China’s military capability is to build a deterrent force. The intended outcome is to induce any potential rivals to reconsider their presumptions of assured victory when intervening in China’s peripheral regions, thereby fostering conflict resolution through non-military or soft-power approaches.

   3. Chapter 7. A Cauldron of Anxiety: War or Peace?

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      The future of the global order is anticipated to be determined less by conflicts in Europe and more by geopolitical rivalry and possible confrontations in maritime Asia, with Taiwan at the centre of attention. This chapter examines the central flashpoints in maritime Asia, with a particular focus on Taiwan’s status and the South China Sea. It seeks to unpack the critical geostrategic, economic, and political complexities that underpin these issues. This chapter argues that the crux of the conflict between China and the United States lies in China’s prospective rise as a significant naval power. This prominence is anticipated to span both the Pacific and Indian Oceans and is likely to be reinforced with credible maritime deterrence capacities. To better understand the motives behind China’s naval power expansion, the chapter delves into the history of Chinese naval development, contrasting it with European and U.S. experiences. Finally, it identifies the constraints that hinder China’s ability to extend its maritime influence and engage in potential conflicts or wars.

   4. Chapter 8. Charting the Path of Influence: Between Force and Soft Power

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      As China’s comprehensive national power grows, how will China exert its global influence? This chapter argues that China is most likely to continue to wield soft power tools, such as economic interests and cultural impact. It also posits that China’s military strength serves primarily as a deterrent, a prerequisite that enables the country to predominantly use its soft power tools. This chapter is structured to explore how China has historically and contemporarily employed economic interest and cultural influence as instruments of soft power. Regarding economic soft power, the chapter explores the underlying logic behind China’s approach, paying particular attention to its execution through the tributary system. It highlights the emerging obstacles tied to China’s strategy of positioning economic soft power as a primary means of attaining global influence. In terms of cultural soft power, the chapter delves into how China has traditionally defined its own identity in contrast to the non-Chinese world, and the evolution of this perspective over time. It also explores how this evolving conception of identity has shaped varying strategies to exert cultural influence, both domestically and internationally.

   5. Chapter 9. The Man and the Times: Xi Jinping and the Intricate Dance of History

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      Throughout China’s extensive history, the country’s leader has invariably played a pivotal role in determining its fate. As we look towards the future, the question arises: How will Xi Jinping influence China’s path and its position within the global order? This chapter argues that Xi Jinping’s ascent to power and his highly concentrated personal authority were not an accident or just a temporary phenomenon. The chapter emphasises the crucial role that the inherent inertia of the Party system plays, and the policies and strategic paths set by past leaders. These factors have profoundly influenced China over the years, thereby significantly constraining and shaping the range of options and decisions available to Xi Jinping today. To facilitate a better understanding of Xi Jinping’s decision-making, the chapter proposes a lens of Xi Jinping’s ‘founder’ mentality. This viewpoint, stemming from the author’s personal observations of Xi Jinping, aims to offer fresh perspectives on his actions and decisions.

4. A Possible Way Forward

   1. Frontmatter

   2. Chapter 10. A World at Stake: Competition, Destruction, or Cooperation?

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      This chapter aims to open a discussion on how China is likely to impact the future of the world in a context of unprecedented historical change. It is structured around two topics. First, it aims to present fresh perspectives on the central dynamics driving geopolitical, environmental, and technological change, and their intersection with China’s evolution, employing a cyclical view of history. The argument is that the present global uncertainty and instability are due to a transitional phase in human development at the intersection of two long cycles: the cycle of great-power rivalry, and the cycle of technological revolution. Second, it seeks to bring together two typically disparate analyses: exploring both the opportunities and challenges stemming from geopolitical, environmental, and technological shifts, and those emerging from China’s rise. It argues that China acts as an ambivalent power and proposes three pairs of scenarios to further dissect its ambivalence. This chapter concludes by introducing the key concept of ‘rivalry partners’, emphasising that in this new epoch of consecutive and intertwined disruptions, nations should not forego competition. Positive and healthy competition can drive innovation and prosperity if there are clear frameworks to guide diverse political systems to be increasingly competitive without being confrontational.

   3. Chapter 11. Navigating an Uncertain Future: Redefining Growth and Security

      Jean Dong

      Abstract

      In light of the world’s efforts to seek a new equilibrium that incorporates the disruptions brought by China, as well as its inevitable influence on almost all global issues, this final chapter endeavours to spark thought and debate on the pivotal question: What is the optimal approach for an external party to impact China in a manner that increases the likelihood of it becoming a beneficial contributor to our shared future? This chapter modestly proposes a potential way forward, requiring two major tasks to be handled concurrently—navigating the present period of transition and uncertainty, and inventing a new future by shifting the paradigm. For the first task, this chapter discusses the central concept of ‘dynamic constraints’. It explores the structural limitations that restrict China’s actions, thereby forcing it to make compromises. Further, it highlights the inherent flexibility within the Chinese system that would be utilised to expand strategic options to influence China to act more positively. Regarding the second task, this chapter proposes a novel reconceptualisation of two core concepts—growth and security—aiming to encourage new thought patterns and models for addressing ‘the China challenge’ more prudently and effectively. It concludes by posing three key questions for readers to reflect upon and take further actions on their own.

5. Backmatter