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2019 | Buch

Climate Change Adaptation in Eastern Europe

Managing Risks and Building Resilience to Climate Change

herausgegeben von: Prof. Dr. h. c. Walter Leal Filho, Prof. Dr. Goran Trbic, Prof. Dr. Dejan Filipovic

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Climate Change Management

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Über dieses Buch

This book focuses on managing risks and building resilience to climate change, showcasing experiences from research, field projects and best practices to foster climate change adaptation in Eastern Europe that can be implemented elsewhere.
Climate change affects countries in Eastern Europe, i.e. the Western Balkans and Southeast Europe in a variety of ways. Apart from severe floods, there are reports of decreasing water reserves in the southern regions, and of gradual changes in biodiversity and agricultural production. In the South Caucasus area, for instance, climate change models project a decline in precipitation and suggest that it will continue to become drier this century.
Many Eastern European countries, especially the non-EU ones, have weak national climate policies, and transboundary collaborations, as well as limited public engagement in matters related to climate change. As a result, climate change poses a serious threat to their economic stability and development and to the sustainable development of the region.
The above state of affairs illustrates the need for a better understanding of how climate change influences Eastern Europe, and for the identification of processes, methods and tools that may help the countries and the communities in the region to adapt. There is also a perceived need to showcase successful examples of how to cope with the social, economic and political problems posed by floods/droughts in the region, especially ways of increasing the resilience of agriculture systems and of communities.
Addressing this need, the book presents papers written by scholars, social practitioners and members of government agencies involved in research and/or climate change projects in Eastern Europe.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Towards Resilient Cities in Serbia
Abstract
The problems of climate change and the concepts of resilient cities and resilience to climate change have gained considerable attention and interest in Serbia over recent years, especially after the catastrophic floods that hit Serbia in 2014. Now the improvement of resilience in the face of natural, socioeconomic, and political uncertainty and risks has captured the attention of researchers and decision-makers in almost all disciplines and sectors. This paper, through an analysis of the literature on climate change, with a special focus on Serbia, as well as Serbian legal regulations, strategies and planning documents, will show the awareness and understanding of resilience in the Serbian planning policy arena. Special attention is paid to local governments and the issue of climate change, and the problem of how planners, planning policy and decision-makers take into account or deal with the risks that it presents.
Branko Protić, Velimir Šećerov, Bogdan Lukić, Marija Jeftić
Projected Changes in Multi-day Extreme Precipitation Over the Western Balkan Region
Abstract
Based on climate change projections, specifically scenarios without ambitious mitigation, climate change can be expected to continue in the Western Balkan region in the future. Even if the international Paris agreement achieves its goals and the mean global temperature increase remains well below 2 °C, we will face at least one more degree of warming and corresponding changes in other climate variables. Climate change projections show that for the Western Balkan region possible changes in the mean annual temperature, in relation to the period 1971–2000, range from 2 to 5.5 °C, depending on the scenario selected and the part of the region analyzed. Projections results shows that mean annual rainfall decrease can be up to −40%, compared to the reference period 1917–2000, and that most of the territory has negative anomaly. On the other side, many studies identify possible increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation in warmer climates. In addition, it is interesting that there will be a future change in multi-day episodes with extreme precipitation accumulations. In this paper, changes in the number of episodes with five-day accumulated precipitation over 60 mm and the overall accumulated precipitation during these episodes are analyzed for the Western Balkan region, using dynamically downscaled climate projections with a non-hydrostatic climate model that has an 8 km horizontal resolution.
Vladimir Djurdjevic, Goran Trbić, Aleksandra Krzic, Danijela Bozanic
Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation and Temperature Extremes in Montenegro in the Period 1951–2010
Abstract
Previous research conducted in Montenegro suggested an increase in maximum and minimum daily temperatures in the last decades, followed by growth of extreme events frequency. This study examines the relationship between temperature and atmospheric circulation fields in Montenegro using 9 WMO-CCL/CLIVAR extreme climatic indices. The data on atmospheric circulation refers to 11 teleconnection patterns analyzed by seasonal timescales. The assessment of the impact of certain teleconnection patterns has shown a significant connection to extreme events in Montenegro. Calculated results showed the strongest impact of EA, MO, WeMO, EAWR and AO during the winter season, while the weaker impact was calculated for NAO and SCAND. The best impact is obtained for EA and AO during spring, while summer temperature variations are connected to EA, AMO, EAWR, SCAND and NAO. The autumn season showed strong connection with EA, SCAND, AMO, EAWR, MO and AO.
Dragan Burić, Jovan Dragojlović, Ivana Penjišević-Sočanac, Jelena Luković, Miroslav Doderović
Analysis of the Climate Change in the Doboj Municipality and Adaptation Options
Abstract
Bosnia and Herzegovina is located in the part of the European continent, which is highly exposed to the climate change and its consequences. Climate change during the 1966–2015 periods over the Doboj area, which was chosen for case study region, was determined. Results show that the increasing trend in annual and seasonal air temperatures is present over the Doboj area. Precipitation also displayed upward trends throughout the year. Climate change in this area is manifested in a higher frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. The paper addresses the issue of the catastrophic floods, which occurred in May 2014 over the Doboj territory. Regardless the previous research on climate change, the results of which are presented in three national reports under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change, public awareness is not sufficiently focused on the consequences of these changes, and local communities have not shown sufficient readiness to response to the natural disasters caused by climate change. The system of measures aimed towards the adaptation and mitigation on the observed changes is proposed in order to achieve sustainable development of this area.
Dragana Vidić, Dragica Delić
An Analysis of Problems Related to Climate Change in Serbian Planning Documents
Abstract
Tackling the climate change represents one of the top priorities in the politics of the international community nowadays. The expected effects of climate change are complex and far-reaching; it is therefore not surprising that various global initiatives are focusing on these issues. In addition to the activities aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change, the need for urgent development of systems for the adaptation to these changes has become imminent. Numerous authors emphasise the role of spatial planning in the process of adaptation to climate changes due to its integrativity and sector policies. The correlation between the adaptation to climate changes and other development issues and the necessity for a comprehensive solution are particularly challenging to spatial planning. Consequently, there is a need to change the traditional methodology of planning and develop a new one which is capable of dealing with the dynamics of climate change and which will use certain climate indicators when making decisions related to space. To determine the extent to which spatial plans consider the climate change issues, this paper uses the 3A model (Moser and Luers 2008) and analyses the Regional Spatial Plan of the Republic of Serbia and the Regional Spatial Plan of the Republic of Srpska based on 30 criteria sorted into 3 categories—Awareness, Analysis, Action. The results have shown that the role of spatial planning in the adaptation to climate changes is still limited, the awareness of the importance of this phenomenon is still low and that the analysed plans put forward a limited number of actions as responses to climate changes. The goal of the paper is to point out certain flaws in the current planning policies as well as to emphasise the importance of considering climate change issues in the process of spatial plan development.
Dejan Filipovic, Ljubica Duskov
Climate Change Impact on River Discharges in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Case Study of the Lower Vrbas River Basin
Abstract
The paper analyses the impact of recent climate change on river discharges in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Data on mean monthly precipitation, temperature and discharges from the Banjaluka meteorological station and from the Delibašino Selo (Banjaluka) hydrological station during the 1961–2016 periods were used for calculations of annual and seasonal trends in the Lower Vrbas River basin (which was chosen for the case study). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s method were used to assess the trend magnitude and its statistical significance, whereas the Pearson correlation index was chosen to detect the connections between climatic and river discharge data series. Given the results, a significant warming tendency was present throughout the year. Annual temperature increased 0.46 ℃ per decade. Unlike temperature, trends in annual and seasonal precipitation were mixed in sign, but were all insignificant. During the observed period, river discharges displayed a significant negative correlation with temperatures throughout the year (insignificant only in winter), whereas links with precipitation were significant and positive. As a result of the determined climate variability, annual river discharges showed a significant downward trend in the range of −8.74 m3/s per decade. Negative discharge trends were detected in all seasons, but were most prominent in winter and spring. The observed changes in river discharges were strongly related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over the Northern Hemisphere: the Artic Oscillation pattern, the East-Atlantic pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern. A significant warming of the climate system, combined with the downward discharge trends throughout the year and precipitation decrease in summer, will lead to decreased water availability over the Lower Vrbas River basin in the future. Given the stated, adaptation towards the observed and projected climate change will be necessary in all key sectors in Bosnia and Herzegovina such as agriculture, energetics (hydropower) and tourism. The adaptation and mitigation options aimed to increase their resilience were considered.
Slobodan Gnjato, Tatjana Popov, Goran Trbić, Marko Ivanišević
Water Body Extraction and Flood Risk Assessment Using Lidar and Open Data
Abstract
Floods are one of the most serious, common and expensive natural disasters that cause fatalities and considerable economic losses worldwide every year. Climate change has dramatically increased the frequency and the severity of the flood events. In May 2014, 2/3 of Serbia were affected by the floods, more than 400 homes were destroyed while the total economic damage exceeded 1.7 billion euros. This fact causes concern and identifies an urgent need for designing and improving flood mitigation measurements. An important aspect of the flood risk studies deals with the topography of river and floodplain. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is widely used in order to estimate the flood inundation and associated damages to properties and livelihoods. The resolution and accuracy of a DEM are critical in a flood risk assessment, especially in lowlands area, where the offset of few decimeters in the elevation data has a significant impact on the accuracy of the risk assessment. The accuracy of the publicly available DEMs is relatively low in the level of accuracy required for flood risk assessment. Throughout this paper, the Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) was used for water body delineation. Water body extraction from LiDAR data was compared to a publicly available Sentinel-2 satellite image. Also, DEM data were used for flood risk estimations in Vojvodina Province, Republic of Serbia. Flood risk assessment by using the publicly available ASTER SRTM DEM was compared to a flood risk assessment using LiDAR DEM.
Gordana Jakovljević, Miro Govedarica
Resilient Functional Urban Regions: Spatial Planning in the Light of Climate Change
Abstract
In European documents, practice and policies of regional and spatial development, functional urban regions (FURs) are recognized as the regions with one or more urban settlements and their in (direct) impact zone(s). The historical connection of the city and its surroundings, as well as the contemporary trends in networking of cities and their hinterland, imply the issues of better modalities for the establishment of such FURs that would be economically more productive, socially inclusive and more environmentally sustainable. The concept of urban governance, along with supporting segments, is proposed as the model for future planning of resistant FURs. It was considered what cities and their functional areas should take in order to prospectively enable an establishing the sustainable spatial and regional development of the Republic of Serbia. The paper tries to answer how much are FURs adjustable, what is their “threshold” of vulnerability, to which they can face the side effects of climate change.
Marija Jeftić, Dragutin Tošić, Teodora Nikolić
Climate Change and Protection Against Floods
Abstract
Today, there is little doubt in academic circles on global scale that the phenomenon of global warming is taking place, with the increase of carbon-dioxide due to burning of fossil fuels being labeled as the main reason. According to referent data, the average temperature will have risen for approximately 2–3.5 °C, which presents a true danger for the functioning of human population and numerous animal and plant species. In addition, climate change significantly affects the regime of watercourses in the geographic area of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where frequent phenomena of extreme drought periods and rainfall peaks are recorded, thus affecting the water management facilities and the health of people. In May 2014, at the occurrence of high waters and consequent flooding of numerous settlements in Bosnia and Herzegovina, it was not possible to record the values of water level and flow. With a view to protecting riverbanks and their surrounding terrain for future hydrologic support (for instance, project documentation, height of the embankment), these values must be set.
Cedomir Crnogorac, Vesna Rajcevic
Duration of the Snow Cover and the Need for Artificial Snow—A Challenge for Management in Ski-Centres of Serbia
Abstract
The production and use of artificial snow has become necessary in most ski centres in Europe. The lack of snow creates problems in ski centres that were built without the prior valuation of natural factors. The survey covered winter tourist centres in Serbia, which are facing problems due to the shortening of the tourist season caused by the lack of snow cover on the ski slopes. The duration of the snow cover is the result of several factors. Air temperature changes were analysed in mountain tourist centres in Serbia, as well as at undeveloped destinations with a potential for snow sports. On the basis of the quantitative indicators of the air temperature and the methodology by means of which snowmaking is carried out, the time periods during the year for making artificial snow are presented. Due to the forecast rise in air temperature, the issue of profitability of artificial snow in the ski centres of Serbia remains open.
Marko Joksimović, Dejan Šabić, Snežana Vujadinović, Rajko Golić, Mirjana Gajić
Sustainability of Rural Areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina Under the Global Climate Change Conditions
Abstract
Theoretically and practically, the paper discusses the real and potential risks and limitations in rural areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina within the context of global climate changes. Rural areas cover approximately 90% of Bosnia and Herzegovina territory and they represent a pertinent commercial potential in sectors of agriculture, forestry, waters, energetics and tourism. The distinctive geo-diversity causes different development opportunities and restrictions. Hence, B&H region is differentiated into, more or less, prosperous areas with specific development issues and risks, many of which are conditioned by global climate changes. Unique variable values of climate elements caused by geospatial factors and global climate changes are typical of B&H geo-space. These are manifested through frequent occurrence of extreme values (temperature, precipitation, winds, etc.), deviations from regular weather conditions and frequent bad weather followed by negative consequences in agricultural sector. In addition, strong sensitivity and inefficient prevention actions are common in problem rural areas. The aim of the paper is to single out rural areas in B&H based on the exposure to natural disasters and potential risks (floods, hail, drought and fires). We analyze the sustainability of geo-systems vulnerable to climate changes (agriculture, forests, hydro-systems, infrastructure, settlements, etc.) and the necessity to undertake essential actions which might help reach a solution. The adequate methodology and research procedures are capitalized on in order to single out areas threatened by climate changes. The nature, geo-distribution and consequences of bad weather conditions are defined. Furthermore, we propose mechanisms to help the identification, monitoring and prevention actions which would protect B&H rural areas under the conditions of intensive bad weather and its consequences due to global climate changes. What our research deals with is the mitigation of consequences caused by climate changes, the protection of rural area geo-systems and the sustainability of spatial development.
Mira Mandić, Milenko Živković, Dragan Papić
Alleviation of Negative Climate Change Effects on Maize Yields in Northern Bosnia by Liming and Phosphorus Fertilization
Abstract
The very acid reaction, low levels of available phosphorus (P) and unfavorable physical properties of soils are often limiting maize yields in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH): average yield 4.42 t ha−1 and annual yield variation from 2.74 to 5.13 t ha−1 in 2001–2010 period. Lately, lower yields are mainly in close relation with drought and higher air temperature stress. Alleviation of these fluctuations is possible by corresponding soil and crop management. Aim of this study was testing liming and P fertilization impact on maize yields in 2007 and 2012 growing seasons. Two stationary field experiments were conducted in the spring of 2005 on Gradiska hydromorphic soils. Under unfavorable weather conditions in 2007 (Gradiska: 61 mm precipitation and 24.0 °C mean air temperature in July + August; averages 1961–1990 = 136 mm and 21.7 °C) maize grain yields were increased for 43% (liming effect: 3.99 and 5.69 t ha−1, for control and liming with 15 t ha−1 of hydratized lime, respectively) and for 30% (P effect: 3.18 and 4.12 t ha−1, for control and 1310 kg P2O5 ha−1, respectively). The stationary field experiment with liming (10 t of hydratized lime per ha) in combination with rates of monoammonium phosphate up to 1500 kg P2O5 ha−1 was started in autumn 2008 in Lijevce polje area (Mahovljani locality). Under drought stress in 2012 (Banja Luka: 54 mm precipitation in July + August; mean air temperature 24.8 °C; averages 1961–1990 = 188 mm and 20.2 °C) due to liming maize yield was increased for 25% (2.08 and 2.49 t ha−1, for control and liming, respectively), while P effect was non-significant. Low yield of maize was induced by the high proportion of barren plants. Additional climate change adaptation and alleviation of stress caused by drought in maize growing is possible by ploughing combined with fertilization in autumn instead in spring, by weed control and by growing more drought tolerant hybrids.
Mihajlo Markovic, Ilija Komljenovic, Vlado Kovacevic, Vojo Radic, Jurica Jovic, Goran Trbić, Dusica Pesevic, Mirjana Markovic
Temperature Risk Assessment in Urban Environments During Heat Wave Periods: A Case Study on the City of Novi Sad (Serbia)
Abstract
The main goal of this research is to assess risk and map methodologies for the study of intensive heat waves in Novi Sad’s urban area. Novi Sad is the second largest city in the Republic of Serbia, with a built-up area of 102 km2 and the population of 330,000 (data as of 2017). Intensive heat waves are a frequently occurring hazard in Central and Southeastern Europe and they may lead to a higher mortality of urban populations. Therefore, for the heat wave risk assessment, in situ air temperature (Ta) measurements from urban stations and the mortality rates of urban populations were used. The methodology used in this heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The nocturnal air temperatures from 9 PM to 5 AM during the summer of 2015 (as one of the hottest summer in the past few decades) were used. The nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. The average daily number of deaths by local climate zones (LCZs) was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. The results show that the most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2 and 5) had very high or high risk values and a higher rate of mortality. According to these results, local authorities could define hot spots where they could place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies. Furthermore, local and regional authorities, medical and urban planning institutions can use the obtained results and maps to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards.
Stevan Savić, Daniela Arsenović, Vladimir Marković, Dragan Milošević
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Requirements of Orchards in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
In agriculture, climate change will have the strongest impact on orcharding, due to the length of the growing season. High temperatures, droughts and more intense solar radiation could burn leaves and fruits, which would impair the quality and marketable yield. On the other hand, heavy rains, if they occur during the period of flowering and maturing, especially of cherries and berries (strawberries, blackberries, raspberries), would result in the spread of fungi, rotting of fruit and delayed picking. In this regard, the objective of the paper is to assess the extent to which climate change will affect the availability of water in traditional, rainfed orchards, as well as to promote adaptation initiatives. The CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to analyze water surplus and shortage. Input climate data pertained to a reference period and SRES climate scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP 8.5 applied to three characteristic climatic areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Analyses showed that water surplus would occur regularly in the colder part of the year, in each study area and by all scenarios. All study areas would also experience water shortages in summer, but with varying drought duration and severity. Adaptation measures are proposed for each study area and period of the year, such as the need for drainage in winter, irrigation in summer and application of new technologies for growing fruit trees.
Ružica Stričević, Goran Trbić, Mirjam Vujadinović, Ana Vuković, Aleksa Lipovac, Ivan Bogdan, Raduška Cupać
Effects of Changes in Extreme Climate Events on Key Sectors in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Adaptation Options
Abstract
Changes in the extreme climate indices during the 1961–2016 periods across Bosnia and Herzegovina and theirs effects on key sectors are examined. Daily data on minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from four meteorological stations located in different parts of the territory were used for calculation in the RClimDex (1.0) software a set of 27 temperature and precipitation indices defined by the ETCCDI. The climate change assessment covered trend analysis and analysis of changes in parameters of the extreme value theory distributions (location, shape and scale). Both Tmax and Tmin displayed significant upward trends (0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade, respectively). Significant upward tendency was determined for warm temperature indices, whereas cold ones displayed downward trends. The highest trend values (>5 days per decade) were obtained for warm indices: TN90p, TX90p, WSDI, SU25 and SU30. Further, the results indicate that the distributions of both maximum and minimum temperatures shifted towards higher values in the latter period. Consistent with the warming trend, warm indices also shifted towards higher values, whereas the opposite was determined for cold ones. Precipitation indices displayed trends mixed in sign, but insignificant. Moreover, no significant changes in their distributions were determined. However, the upward trends in RX1day, RX5day, R95p and R99p indicate changes towards more intense precipitation. Effects of the observed changes on key sectors in Bosnia and Herzegovina: agriculture, forestry, energetic (hydropower) and tourism were then examined. Climate change has strongly affected yields, fire frequency, energy production and consumption, suitability of destinations for tourism development, etc. Adaptation options were discussed in order to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience of these very important sectors for sustainable development of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Tatjana Popov, Slobodan Gnjato, Goran Trbić
Promoting Adaptation Within Urban Planning: Case Study of the General Regulation Plan of the City of Požarevac
Abstract
This paper, by presenting the case study of the General Regulation Plan, provides an overview of the potentials and limitations of the planning system regarding adaptation in the context of urban planning in the Republic of Serbia. The spatial coverage of the Plan includes the central/urban and peri-urban area of the city of Požarevac, within which various land uses are represented. In addition to housing, commercial and industrial facilities, green infrastructure, as well as other land uses, agriculture is also presented. Taking into consideration the specificity of the Plan area, the paper presents measures that promote adaptation, with special emphasis on the green infrastructure, the water system, energy efficiency and the urban structure. Thus, one of the measures promoted by this Plan is the reservation of the space for raising fast-growing forests, building green roofs and walls and as well developing and expanding of the water drainage system network. In accordance with the current legal and planning basis, within the conclusions that this work stresses is that, even in an incomplete legal and planning framework, there are real possibilities for the inclusion of adaptive measures in the process of urban planning.
Tijana Crnčević, Ana Niković, Božidar Manić
Hail as a Natural Disaster in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
The increased frequency and intensity of hail occurrence is one of the negative consequences of climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The monitoring system of the hail occurrence, as well as the suppression from the hailstorms damages, is best organized in the northern part of the country, which represents largest and most important region of crops and fruit production. Activities on hail suppression have been implemented in Bosnia and Herzegovina since 1970. The main aim of the paper is to perfom a complex analysis of the hail occurrence in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 2000–2017 periods, based on data from meteorological stations Banja Luka, Bijeljina, Mrakovica, Gradiška, Srbac, Derventa, Doboj and Prijedor, and 203 anti-hail stations. The temporal and spatial distribution of the hail occurrence over the study area, and their interdependence with climate change will be determined. It is particularly important to emphasize that during the last two decades prominent climate change have been observed over the study area, which caused higher atmosphere lability and increased frequency of occurrence, as well as intensity of the phenomenon. The paper also discusses the extreme hailstorm event on June 25, 2014, when the northern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina was affected by supercell cumulonimbus. Further, the potential impacts on the agricultural sector and adaptation options were investigated.
Tihomir Dejanovic, Goran Trbić, Tatjana Popov
Aggravated Occupational Heat Stress Recognition and Mitigation in Slovenia
Abstract
Global warming is strongly reflected in an increase in the number of hot days and, consequently, heat waves—their occurrence over a wider time frame, their duration, intensity and frequency. Changed characteristics were studied at two locations in Slovenia, confirming the increase. The problem of heat stress, health risks and labor productivity loss experienced by workers is well studied in hot locations, but not enough in Europe. Heat stress relies on both environmental and individual factors and it is important to understand how the general public and workers perceive heat risk, since this information may be helpful in preparing or updating heat stress mitigation strategies. Two studies were conducted in Slovenia in the frame of the Horizon 2020 Heat-Shield project, the first analyzing already experienced heat stress symptoms and health issues, productivity loss and self-initiative measures among workers in various sectors (N = 687), and the second investigating workers’ knowledge of heat stress, its impact and preventive measures (N = 117). Workplace temperature in a large majority of cases was considered not suitable, negative heat stress impacts were recognized and already experienced. The results of the two studies show the importance of the problem, which is expected to worsen due to climate change, making mitigation of heat stress an unavoidable issue.
Tjaša Pogačar, Zala Žnidaršič, Zalika Črepinšek, Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Selected Catchments of Slovakia
Abstract
In this study the authors looked at the impact of climate change on a hydrological regime and catchment runoff in selected catchments of Slovakia. Changed climate conditions, which are characterized in particular by changes in precipitation, air temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in future decades, have been predicted according to the outputs of the KNMI and MPI regional climate change models and the A1B emission scenario. Assuming these scenarios, the hydrological regime characteristics were simulated by a distributed WetSpa rainfall-runoff model parameterized for five selected river basins in a daily step by the year 2100. When compared to the current state, changes in the total runoff and its components, as well as changes in the soil moisture and the actual evapotranspiration, confirm the assumption of an increase in extremes of the runoff regime in the winter period and a decrease during the summer and autumn periods, causing possible droughts. The results of the study indicate a need for re-evaluation of the water demands and the future design of water management structures in Slovakia.
Peter Rončák, Kamila Hlavčová, Silvia Kohnová, Ján Szolgay
Adaptation Strategies to Reduce the Impact of Climate Change on Yield Loss in Northern Carpathians, Slovakia
Abstract
In the Northern Carpathians region (Slovakia), a significant increase of mean annual temperatures was registered in the last 40 years, reflecting the significant impacts of climate change. In this paper, levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and soil water scarcity have been studied in order to forecast how their changes could affect agricultural production in the future. For this purpose, meteorological data were generated according to the general circulation model ARPEGE, while water balance measures in the Northern Carpathians (Slovakia) were evaluated by using agroecological model DAISY. Two emission scenarios were evaluated: RCP 8.5 (equiv. SRES A2) and RCP 6.0 (equiv. SRES B2). According to both, consequent increase of potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirements will gradually increase by 2071–2100. In addition, the availability of soil water will decline and the number of days with available water capacity below 50% AWC will increase during the growing season of field crops and evoke an increase of irrigation requirements. The results of this study predicted that the irrigation season will start earlier and will persist for a longer period in the future. Therefore, irrigation can be, in case of insufficient water sources, limiting factor for sustainable field crop production.
Matej Žilinský, Jozef Takáč, Bernard Šiška
Adaptation of Eastern Europe Regional Agriculture to Climate Change: Risks and Management
Abstract
This paper presents a comparative analysis of the regional specificity of climate change adaptation strategies in some countries and regions of Eastern Europe. The authors explore the role of extreme temperatures and changes in precipitation in agricultural production. Possible ways to achieve an ecologically sustainable increase in agricultural productivity for dry and wet areas in Eastern Europe are discussed. Attention is drawn to the role of environmental education and public participation in addressing climate change issues for sustainable development of agrarian ecosystems. A special attention is paid to increasing social responsibility for minimizing negative consequences of climate change.
Dara V. Gaeva, Galina M. Barinova, Evgeny V. Krasnov
Cross-Boundary Cooperation Between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Their Neighboring Countries Focusing on an Efficient Hail Protection as an Active Response to Global Climate Changes
Abstract
Consequences of climate change affect development processes, geo-system sustainability, the long-term development goals, and provoke raising demand for adequate models and approaches to development strategies. The paper discusses matters related to natural disasters and risk reduction, with a focus on hail occurrence, examining its consequences within Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The final aim of this research is to provide a contribution towards seeking an active response to problems related. Considering a whole range of pertinent geographical facts, historical experiences and presumptions, it has been suggested that the cross-boundary cooperation concept is the optimum solution for the defined problems and achievement of appropriate sustainable development strategy. Therefore, the topic has been addressed through the role and relevance of cross-boundary cooperation between Bosnia and Herzegovina (focusing only on the B&H entity—Republic of Srpska as a hail-exposed area possessing anti-hail protection) and its neighbouring countries (Croatia and Serbia). Within this context, real and potential hail risks and consequences, as well as measures and long-term activities defined for the purpose of addressing and minimizing these problems, have been discussed. Comparative analyses of relevant indicators and methodological procedures were capitalized in order to meet the primary goal. Among other things, the paper defines measures and long-term activities of mitigation and efficient management of hail risk, in order to improve geo-system sustainability by initiating cross-boundary cooperation between Bosnia and Herzegovina and neighbouring countries. The paper is both fundamental and applicative and its recommendations can be applied to development strategies and might provide a crucial contribution to the integral sustainable development of the areas along the borderline of the defined geographical region and its geo-systems (ecosystem, settlement system, commercial system, etc.).
Milenko Živković, Tihomir Dejanović, Mira Mandić
Analysis of Existing Disaster Risk Reduction Programs and Enhancement of Capacity Development for Health Risks from Floods in Western Balkan
Abstract
Natural hazards are a result of changing climate and environmental conditions and, as such, they are inevitable. However, the scale of the negative outcomes of these natural hazards can be significantly reduced through management and adequate preparation. Therefore, integration of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) policies and programs with risk management is necessary in order to reduce the impact of disastrous situations, and Capacity Development is the catalyst for the successful implementation of such programs. This paper presents an analysis of international frameworks for risk reduction such as the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), the Sendai Framework, the South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme (SEEDRMAP), as well as few individual national programs within the Western Balkan countries. After analyzing the aforementioned programs and policies, special emphasis has been given to the need for capacity development for human health factors in regards to flooding (the most frequent natural hazard in the region). The revision showed poorly addressed human health effects (physical and mental) caused directly or indirectly by floods in the region. Therefore, the paper presents several recommendations which could foster implementation of prerequisites for those absent policies and programs for human health, with final aim to contribute to healthier solutions during the aftermath of flooding for people in the Western Balkan area.
Appuhamilage Gethmini Pabasara, Jelena Barbir, Xavier Rodriguez Lloveras
Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Republic of Srpska (Entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina)—Geopolitical Aspect
Abstract
The Republic of Srpska has many significant natural resources, which represent an important segment in the evaluation of its economic and geopolitical position in Europe. The most important resource is fresh water, including mountain and plain rivers, karst areas, natural and artificial lakes, and thermal and mineral springs. Considering the emerging crisis in drinking and industrial water supply, caused, among other things, by the negative effects of climate change at global and local level, the water resources of the Republic of Srpska can rightfully be considered as a key development resource, which has its own geopolitical dimension. This study is based on the analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources of the Republic of Srpska, including adaptation to climate change and optimal exploitation and preservation of freshwater resources. While respecting the criteria of sustainable development, the present situation has been examined through the prism of geopolitical aspect specific for the Southeastern Europe. Also, the research addresses national priorities, as well as the mutual connection between natural and geographical factors on one side and “the geopolitics of resources” on another. The results of this research offer both theoretical and applied value to the current situation in the country, and the Republic of Srpska could become a successful example of adaptation to climate change under specific geopolitical circumstances.
Igor Zekanović
Good Practices for Disaster Risk Reduction in Agriculture in the Western Balkans
Abstract
The Western Balkan region is prone to various natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts and forest fires, due to its location, climatic and topographic characteristics. The agriculture sector is adversely impacted by these hazards, through the damage of agricultural facilities and equipment as well as losses in the crops, livestock, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry subsectors. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of hydro-meteorological hazards, and smallholder farmers in these countries are therefore especially vulnerable as they mainly depend on the sector and its activities for their food and livelihoods. This paper presents the findings from interviews with farmers, extension officers and agriculture experts regarding 12 identified good practices that can help to reduce the adverse impacts of natural hazards, in particular, floods, landslides and droughts, on agriculture in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. The differences between these stakeholders’ perspectives will be illustrated and the requirements needed for the uptake and upscaling of these practices in the Western Balkan region will be discussed.
Tamara van ‘t Wout, Reuben Sessa, Vlado Pijunovic
Metadaten
Titel
Climate Change Adaptation in Eastern Europe
herausgegeben von
Prof. Dr. h. c. Walter Leal Filho
Prof. Dr. Goran Trbic
Prof. Dr. Dejan Filipovic
Copyright-Jahr
2019
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-03383-5
Print ISBN
978-3-030-03382-8
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03383-5