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2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Climate Change and Financial Risk

verfasst von : Hugues Chenet

Erschienen in: Financial Risk Management and Modeling

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter is an introduction to climate change risk for the financial sector (banks and investors). We propose to cover how the topic emerged, what it means for financial institutions, what are the specific types of approaches to address it as well as related developments in the industry, how regulation is approaching the question, and what are the next steps for academic research. The chapter is aimed at financial professionals, researchers and policymakers in the area of banking and investment who seek to understand where this new field of research currently is and what evolutions are to expect. The chapter’s ambition is to provide the reader with a snapshot of the current state of the art and guidance on the relevant literature to go further.

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Vorheriges Kapitel From Calendar to Economic Time. Deciphering the Arrival of Events in Irregularly Spaced Time

Nächstes Kapitel The Curious Case of Herding: Theories and Risk

https://www.ipcc.ch/about/history/

GHG: greenhouse gas.

In the chapter, we consider the “financial system” or the “financial sector” from the capital markets point of view, and voluntarily ignore the insurance sector, which needs to be addressed in a different way. Therefore, we focus on banks and investors.

The only risk management framework to treat those issues at that time was defined by the Equator Principles https://equator-principles.com

NGOs: Non-Governmental Organisations.

EU-ETS is the first major carbon market framework, and largest to date, cf. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en

Despite a recent upward movement since mid-2017.

COP21: 21st Conference of the Parties, in the frame of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Cf. https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/supreme-bodies/conference-of-the-parties-cop

https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification

The fight against climate change is usually split in two main streams: mitigation of the effects (decreasing GHG emissions) and adaptation to the residual effects (e.g. via an evolution of infrastructures).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 2018 Global Energy & CO₂ Status Report, reports that “energy demand worldwide grew by 2.3% in 2018, its fastest pace this decade, thanks to a strong global economy and higher demand for heating and cooling. Natural gas emerged as the fuel of choice, posting the biggest gains and accounting for 45% of the rise in energy consumption. Solar and wind generation grew at double-digit pace, with solar alone increasing by 31%. Still, that was not fast enough to meet higher electricity demand around the world that also drove up coal use . As a result, global energy-related CO ₂ emissions rose by 1.7% to 33 Gigatonnes (Gt) with coal use in power generation alone surpassing 10 Gt and accounting for a third of total emissions.”

NB: while the TCFD includes liability and litigation risks in the transition risk category, some alternative classifications propose it as distinct category, being potentially triggered directly by physical impacts of climate change as much as they can from transition impacts.

This speech from Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board), “Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon - climate change and financial stability”, on 29 Sept. 2015, constitutes a landmark for both the financial industry, the policy-makers and the academia. It was the first time that a ‘mainstream’ finance leader made such a ‘coming out’ on climate. The speech focuses on climate-related risks for the financial sector, and the potential financial instability (systemic risk) resulting from related time horizon mismatch.

For instance, recently the bankruptcy of PG&E — California’s largest utility and one of the United States’ largest investor-owned electric utilities — is considered as an indirect impact of climate change. Cf. “Pacific Gas and Electric is a company that was just bankrupted by climate change. It won’t be the last.”, Washington Post, Jan.302019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2019/01/30/pacific-gas-and-electric-is-a-company-that-was-just-bankrupted-by-climate-change-it-wont-be-the-last/

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) stipulates that on a market where all the relevant information is available to market participants, the market price of a traded security equals its ‘fundamental value’ (Fama 1970).

‘FI’ will stand for ‘financial institution’ throughout the rest of the chapter.

We do not address here the case of insured losses, which transfer the risk to the insurance sector, but should not be significant to the entity in question from a single-event perspective.

e.g. Natixis’ Green Weighting Factor, https://www.natixis.com/natixis/en/green-weighting-factor-and-alignment-with-2c-goals-rqaz5_111931.html

As of February 15th 2021, the NGFS consists of 87 members and 13 observers, https://www.ngfs.net/en/about-us/membership

This chapter has been drafted in August 2019.

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Titel: Climate Change and Financial Risk
verfasst von: Hugues Chenet
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Financial Risk Management and Modeling
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-66690-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-66691-0

Copyright-Jahr: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66691-0_12