Skip to main content

2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Climate Change and the Energy Sector in Brazil

verfasst von : Roberto Schaeffer, André F. P. Lucena, Isabella V. L. Costa, Eveline Vásquez, Cindy Viviescas, Vanessa Huback

Erschienen in: Climate Change Risks in Brazil

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Among the contributors to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG), the energy sector stands out as an important climate change driving force. On the other hand, the energy sector is vulnerable to changes in climate. This is especially true for renewable energy sources, which show higher vulnerability when compared to non-renewable sources like coal, oil and gas. Paradoxically, thus, the options to reduce GHG emissions from energy combustion are those that are more exposed to the very impacts of those emissions. Therefore, it is important to assess the vulnerability of the energy system, in general and of renewable energy in particular, to climate change. The objective of this chapter is to assess what would be the effects of extreme climate change, in other words, with average temperature increase of over 4 °C, on the Brazilian energy system in different settings. This chapter is based on a review of climate change impact studies that have been conducted for Brazil. Since the Brazilian power sector is highly based on hydropower, most studies have focused on climate change impacts on hydropower. The analysis shows that in extreme climate scenarios a vicious cycle would emerge. An increase in demand for electricity would result from global warming, while energy production would fall short in its supply, as temperature increases would affect renewable sources mostly. These results do not depend on future settings for the Brazilian energy system, as renewable sources should remain predominant in the medium-long term.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
The amount of energy in the wind is proportionate to the wind speed elevated to the cube, which indicates how speed variations may have significant effects on the volume of available power (Pryor & Barthelmie, 2010).
 
2
HadRM3P is a model of the regional climate modelling system PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) of the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom, which has a 50 km horizontal resolution. HadAM3P is a global climate model used for downscaling climate scenarios.
 
3
SWAT is a public domain tool developed for studying and predicting outflow, sediment production, pollutant load and water quality in water basins.
 
4
Firm energy may be defined for a hydroelectric system as the biggest amount of energy obtained, considering the hydrological scenario, generally based on the historical experience. Alternatively, it may be defined as the biggest amount of energy produced in a critical period, when the system’s storage capacity goes from the maximum to the minimum, without intermediate refilling (CEPEL, 2007). In other words, it is the period when the energy accumulated in reservoirs is depleted without being fully replaced.
 
5
Modelo de Simulação a Usinas Individualizadas de Subsistemas Hidrotérmicos Interligados (Model for Simulation of individuas Power Plants in Hydrothermal Interconnected Systems), developed by CEPEL (2007).
 
6
The secured energy (EASS) represents the amount that a generation park can produce with 5 per cent of energy risk deficit.
 
7
Model developed by CEPEL and adopted by the Brazilian electricity sector to represent the medium and long term hydrothermal planning problem.
 
8
This, however, has not been the case over the last few years, when thermal power generation capacity has been operating on a more constant basis in Brazil.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Acker, T. L., et al. (2012). Integration of wind and hydropower systems: Results of IEA wind task 24. Wind Engineering, 36, 1–18.CrossRef Acker, T. L., et al. (2012). Integration of wind and hydropower systems: Results of IEA wind task 24. Wind Engineering, 36, 1–18.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Andrade, E. M., et al. (2012). The vulnerability of hydroelectric generation in the northeast of Brazil: The environmental and business risks for CHESF. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(8), 5760–5769 1364-0321.CrossRef Andrade, E. M., et al. (2012). The vulnerability of hydroelectric generation in the northeast of Brazil: The environmental and business risks for CHESF. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(8), 5760–5769 1364-0321.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Arnell, N. W. (2004). Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14(1), 31–52.CrossRef Arnell, N. W. (2004). Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14(1), 31–52.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Brown, R. A., Rosenberg, N. J., Hays, C. J., Easterling, W. E., & Mearns, L. O. (2000). Potential production and environmental effects of switchgrass and traditional crops under current and greenhouse-altered climate in the Central United States: A simulation study. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 78(1), 31–47.CrossRef Brown, R. A., Rosenberg, N. J., Hays, C. J., Easterling, W. E., & Mearns, L. O. (2000). Potential production and environmental effects of switchgrass and traditional crops under current and greenhouse-altered climate in the Central United States: A simulation study. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 78(1), 31–47.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bull, S. R., et al. (2007). Effects of climate change on energy production and distribution in the United States. A report by the U. S. Climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research. Washington. Bull, S. R., et al. (2007). Effects of climate change on energy production and distribution in the United States. A report by the U. S. Climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research. Washington.
Zurück zum Zitat Burkett, V. (2011). Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development. Energy Policy, 39(12), 7719–7725.CrossRef Burkett, V. (2011). Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development. Energy Policy, 39(12), 7719–7725.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat CCPS. In: Wilbanks Thomas, J., Vatsal, B., Bilello Daniel, E., Bull Stanley, R., James, E., Horak William, C., Joe Huang, Y., Levine Mark, D., Sale Michael, J., Schmalzer David, K., & Scott Michael, J., (Eds.), (2007). Effects of climate change on energy production and use in the United States. A report by the U.S. climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research. Washington, DC., USA: Department of Energy, Office of Biological, Environmental Research. p. 160. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4–5/finalreport/sap4–5-final-all.pdf CCPS. In: Wilbanks Thomas, J., Vatsal, B., Bilello Daniel, E., Bull Stanley, R., James, E., Horak William, C., Joe Huang, Y., Levine Mark, D., Sale Michael, J., Schmalzer David, K., & Scott Michael, J., (Eds.), (2007). Effects of climate change on energy production and use in the United States. A report by the U.S. climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research. Washington, DC., USA: Department of Energy, Office of Biological, Environmental Research. p. 160. http://​www.​climatescience.​gov/​Library/​sap/​sap4–5/​finalreport/​sap4–5-final-all.​pdf
Zurück zum Zitat CEPEL. (2007). Manual de Referência do Modelo SUISHI-O . Rio de Janeiro: Centro de Pesquisa em Energia Elétrica. CEPEL. (2007). Manual de Referência do Modelo SUISHI-O . Rio de Janeiro: Centro de Pesquisa em Energia Elétrica.
Zurück zum Zitat Chiew, F. H. S. (2006). Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51(4), 613–625.CrossRef Chiew, F. H. S. (2006). Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51(4), 613–625.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Collischonn, W. (2001). Simulação hidrológica de grandes bacias. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul. Collischonn, W. (2001). Simulação hidrológica de grandes bacias. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul.
Zurück zum Zitat Collischonn, W., et al. (2007). The MGB-IPH model for large-scale rainfall—Runoff modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5), 878–895.CrossRef Collischonn, W., et al. (2007). The MGB-IPH model for large-scale rainfall—Runoff modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5), 878–895.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Costa, J. P. (2007). Árvore reduzida de cenários para o planejamento da operação de médio prazo. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Costa, J. P. (2007). Árvore reduzida de cenários para o planejamento da operação de médio prazo. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro.
Zurück zum Zitat Cutforth, H. W., & Judiesch, D. (2007). Long-term changes to incoming solar energy on the Canadian Prairie. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 145(3), 167–175.CrossRef Cutforth, H. W., & Judiesch, D. (2007). Long-term changes to incoming solar energy on the Canadian Prairie. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 145(3), 167–175.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat D’araujo, R. P. (2009). Setor Elétrico Brasileiro - Uma aventura mercantil. 1°. ed. Brasilia: Coronário Editora Gráfica Ltda. D’araujo, R. P. (2009). Setor Elétrico Brasileiro - Uma aventura mercantil. 1°. ed. Brasilia: Coronário Editora Gráfica Ltda.
Zurück zum Zitat Dutra, R., & szklo, A. (2008). Assessing long-term incentive programs for implementing wind power in Brazil using GIS rule-based methods. Renewable Energy, 33(12), 2507–2515.CrossRef Dutra, R., & szklo, A. (2008). Assessing long-term incentive programs for implementing wind power in Brazil using GIS rule-based methods. Renewable Energy, 33(12), 2507–2515.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Dvorak, V., Hladny, J., & Kasparek, L. (1997). Climate change hydrology and water resources impact and adaptation for selected river basins in the Czech Republic. Climatic Change, 36(1–2), 93–106.CrossRef Dvorak, V., Hladny, J., & Kasparek, L. (1997). Climate change hydrology and water resources impact and adaptation for selected river basins in the Czech Republic. Climatic Change, 36(1–2), 93–106.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Feeley, T. J., Skone, T. J., Stiegel, G. J., McNemar, A., Nemeth, M., Schimmoller, B., et al. (2008). Water: A critical resource in the thermoelectric power industry. Energy, 33(1), 1–11.CrossRef Feeley, T. J., Skone, T. J., Stiegel, G. J., McNemar, A., Nemeth, M., Schimmoller, B., et al. (2008). Water: A critical resource in the thermoelectric power industry. Energy, 33(1), 1–11.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Fenger, J. (2007). Impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources their role in the Nordic energy system. Copenhagen, Denmark: Nordic Council of Ministers. 978-92-893-1465-7. Fenger, J. (2007). Impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources their role in the Nordic energy system. Copenhagen, Denmark: Nordic Council of Ministers. 978-92-893-1465-7.
Zurück zum Zitat Feres, J., et al., (2010). Impactos da Mudança do clima no uso da terra . São Paulo: Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades. Feres, J., et al., (2010). Impactos da Mudança do clima no uso da terra . São Paulo: Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades.
Zurück zum Zitat Fidje, A., & Martinson, T. (2007). Solar energy. In J. Fenger (Ed.), Impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system. Copenhagen, Denmark: Nordic Council of Ministers. Fidje, A., & Martinson, T. (2007). Solar energy. In J. Fenger (Ed.), Impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system. Copenhagen, Denmark: Nordic Council of Ministers.
Zurück zum Zitat Frederick, K. D., & Major, D. C. (1997). Climate change and water resources. Climatic Change, 37(1), 7–23.CrossRef Frederick, K. D., & Major, D. C. (1997). Climate change and water resources. Climatic Change, 37(1), 7–23.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Freitas, M. A. V. (2004). Vulnerabilidade, Impactos e Adaptação à Mundaça do Clima. Brasilia, Brazil: CGEE - Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. Freitas, M. A. V. (2004). Vulnerabilidade, Impactos e Adaptação à Mundaça do Clima. Brasilia, Brazil: CGEE - Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos.
Zurück zum Zitat Freitas, M. A. V. (2006). Vulnerabilidade climática e Antrópica dos Recursos Hídrico da Bacia Amazônica. Brasilia, Brazil: Projeto GEF Amazonas - OTCA/PNUMA/OEA. Freitas, M. A. V. (2006). Vulnerabilidade climática e Antrópica dos Recursos Hídrico da Bacia Amazônica. Brasilia, Brazil: Projeto GEF Amazonas - OTCA/PNUMA/OEA.
Zurück zum Zitat Garreaud, R. D., & Falvey, M. (2009). The coastal winds off western subtropical South America in future climate scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 29(4), 543–554.CrossRef Garreaud, R. D., & Falvey, M. (2009). The coastal winds off western subtropical South America in future climate scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 29(4), 543–554.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat GCP; CIAT. (2013). Amazonia security agenda. Brasil: Global canopy Programme - Centro Internacional de Agricultura tropical. GCP; CIAT. (2013). Amazonia security agenda. Brasil: Global canopy Programme - Centro Internacional de Agricultura tropical.
Zurück zum Zitat Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S., Mickelson, K. E. B., & Elsner, M. M. (2010). Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. In The Washington climate change impacts assessment: evaluating Washington’s future in a changing climate. Chapter 4: Energy. JISAO climate impacts group (pp. 165–190). Seattle, WA: University of Washington. Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S., Mickelson, K. E. B., & Elsner, M. M. (2010). Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. In The Washington climate change impacts assessment: evaluating Washington’s future in a changing climate. Chapter 4: Energy. JISAO climate impacts group (pp. 165–190). Seattle, WA: University of Washington.
Zurück zum Zitat Harrison, G. P., & Wallace, A. R. (2005). Climate sensitivity of marine energy. Renewable Energy, 30(12), 1801–1817.CrossRef Harrison, G. P., & Wallace, A. R. (2005). Climate sensitivity of marine energy. Renewable Energy, 30(12), 1801–1817.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Harrison, G. P., & Whittington, H. B. W. (2002). Susceptibility of the Batoka gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 264(1), 230–241.CrossRef Harrison, G. P., & Whittington, H. B. W. (2002). Susceptibility of the Batoka gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 264(1), 230–241.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Harsem, Ø., Eide, A., & Heen, K. (2011). Factors influencing future oil and gas prospects in the Arctic. Energy Policy, 39(12), 8037–8045.CrossRef Harsem, Ø., Eide, A., & Heen, K. (2011). Factors influencing future oil and gas prospects in the Arctic. Energy Policy, 39(12), 8037–8045.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat IIMI, A. (2007). Estimating global climate change impacts on hydropower projects: Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The World Bank: Sustainable development network. Finance, economics, and urban development department. IIMI, A. (2007). Estimating global climate change impacts on hydropower projects: Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The World Bank: Sustainable development network. Finance, economics, and urban development department.
Zurück zum Zitat INPE. (2007). Caracterização do clima atual e definição das alterações climáticas para o território brasileiro ao longo do Século XXI, Relatório No. 6: Mudanças Climáticas e Possíveis Alterações nos Biomas da América do Sul CPTEC. São Paulo, Brazil: INPE; 2007. INPE. (2007). Caracterização do clima atual e definição das alterações climáticas para o território brasileiro ao longo do Século XXI, Relatório No. 6: Mudanças Climáticas e Possíveis Alterações nos Biomas da América do Sul CPTEC. São Paulo, Brazil: INPE; 2007.
Zurück zum Zitat IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change. (2014a). Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Summary for policy makers. Contributions of the working group II to the fifth assessment report.[Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken,: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, pp. 1–32. , 2014. IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change. (2014a). Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Summary for policy makers. Contributions of the working group II to the fifth assessment report.[Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken,: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, pp. 1–32. , 2014.
Zurück zum Zitat IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change. (2014b). Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press. IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change. (2014b). Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Zurück zum Zitat IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). In R. K. Pachauri & L. A. Meyer (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (p. 151). Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.CrossRef IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). In R. K. Pachauri & L. A. Meyer (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (p. 151). Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kehlhofer, R., Hannemann, F., Rukes, B., & Stirnimann, F. (2009). Combined-cycle gas & steam turbine power plants. Tulsa, OK: Pennwell Books. Kehlhofer, R., Hannemann, F., Rukes, B., & Stirnimann, F. (2009). Combined-cycle gas & steam turbine power plants. Tulsa, OK: Pennwell Books.
Zurück zum Zitat Kelman, J. (1987). Modelos estocásticos no gerenciamento de recursos hídricos. ______. Modelos para Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos I. São Paulo: Nobel/ABRH, 378. Kelman, J. (1987). Modelos estocásticos no gerenciamento de recursos hídricos. ______. Modelos para Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos I. São Paulo: Nobel/ABRH, 378.
Zurück zum Zitat Kopytko, N., & Perkins, J. (2011). Climate change, nuclear power, and the adaptation–mitigation dilemma. Energy Policy, 39(1), 318–333.CrossRef Kopytko, N., & Perkins, J. (2011). Climate change, nuclear power, and the adaptation–mitigation dilemma. Energy Policy, 39(1), 318–333.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kundzewicz, Z. W., et al. (2008). The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(Fevereiro), 3–10.CrossRef Kundzewicz, Z. W., et al. (2008). The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(Fevereiro), 3–10.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lehner, B., Czisch, G., & Vassolo, S. (2005). The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: A model-based analysis. Energy Policy, 33(7), 839–855.CrossRef Lehner, B., Czisch, G., & Vassolo, S. (2005). The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: A model-based analysis. Energy Policy, 33(7), 839–855.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lelis, T. A., Calijuri, M. L., da Fonseca, A. S., & de Lima, D. C. (2011). Impactos causados pelas mudanças climáticas nos processos erosivos de uma bacia hidrográfica: Simulação de cenários/Impacts of climate change on erosion of a watershed: Simulation of scenarios. Revista Ambiente & Água, 6(2), 282.CrossRef Lelis, T. A., Calijuri, M. L., da Fonseca, A. S., & de Lima, D. C. (2011). Impactos causados pelas mudanças climáticas nos processos erosivos de uma bacia hidrográfica: Simulação de cenários/Impacts of climate change on erosion of a watershed: Simulation of scenarios. Revista Ambiente & Água, 6(2), 282.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lucena, A. F. P. (2010). Proposta metodológica Para avaliação da vulnerabilidade às mudanças climaticas globais no setor hidroelétrico. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 208 p. Lucena, A. F. P. (2010). Proposta metodológica Para avaliação da vulnerabilidade às mudanças climaticas globais no setor hidroelétrico. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 208 p.
Zurück zum Zitat Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., & Schaeffer, R. (2009a). Renewable energy in an unpredictable and changing climate. Modern Energy Review, 1(Copenhagen Edition). Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., & Schaeffer, R. (2009a). Renewable energy in an unpredictable and changing climate. Modern Energy Review, 1(Copenhagen Edition).
Zurück zum Zitat Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., & Schaeffer, R. (2009b). Renewable energy in an unpredictable and changing climate. Modern Energy Review, 1, 22–25. Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., & Schaeffer, R. (2009b). Renewable energy in an unpredictable and changing climate. Modern Energy Review, 1, 22–25.
Zurück zum Zitat Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., Schaeffer, R., & Dutra, R. M. (2010). The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil. Renewable Energy, 35, 904–912.CrossRef Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., Schaeffer, R., & Dutra, R. M. (2010). The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil. Renewable Energy, 35, 904–912.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., Schaeffer, R., Souza, R. R., Borba, B. S. M. C., Costa, I. V. L., et al. (2009). The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil. Energy Policy, 37, 879–889.CrossRef Lucena, A. F. P., Szklo, A. S., Schaeffer, R., Souza, R. R., Borba, B. S. M. C., Costa, I. V. L., et al. (2009). The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil. Energy Policy, 37, 879–889.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lucena, A. F. P., et al. (2015). Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy. Energy Economics, 56.CrossRef Lucena, A. F. P., et al. (2015). Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy. Energy Economics, 56.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Marengo, J. A., et al. (2004). Vulnerabilidade, impactos e adaptação à mudança do clima no semi-árido do Brasil. Cachoeira Paulista v. CPTEC/INPE, p. 16. Marengo, J. A., et al. (2004). Vulnerabilidade, impactos e adaptação à mudança do clima no semi-árido do Brasil. Cachoeira Paulista v. CPTEC/INPE, p. 16.
Zurück zum Zitat Marengo, J. A., et al. (2010). Cenários futuros sobre o clima no Brasil. Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades. São Paulo, Brazil: CPTEC/INPE. Marengo, J. A., et al. (2010). Cenários futuros sobre o clima no Brasil. Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades. São Paulo, Brazil: CPTEC/INPE.
Zurück zum Zitat Martins, F. R., & Pereira, E. B. (2011). Enhancing information for solar and wind energy technology deployment in Brazil. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4378–4390.CrossRef Martins, F. R., & Pereira, E. B. (2011). Enhancing information for solar and wind energy technology deployment in Brazil. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4378–4390.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat MCTI - Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações. (2010). Segunda Comunicação Nacional do Brasil à Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre mudança do Clima. Brasilia, Brazil: Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação. MCTI - Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações. (2010). Segunda Comunicação Nacional do Brasil à Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre mudança do Clima. Brasilia, Brazil: Ministério de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação.
Zurück zum Zitat MME – Ministério de Minas e Energia. (2014). Energia Eólica no Brasil e Mundo. Brasília. MME – Ministério de Minas e Energia. (2014). Energia Eólica no Brasil e Mundo. Brasília.
Zurück zum Zitat Mohor, G. S., Rodriguez, D. A., Tomasella, J., & Júnior, J. L. S. (2015). Exploratory analyses for the assessment of climate change impacts on the energy production in an Amazon run-of-river hydropower plant. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4, 41–59. Mohor, G. S., Rodriguez, D. A., Tomasella, J., & Júnior, J. L. S. (2015). Exploratory analyses for the assessment of climate change impacts on the energy production in an Amazon run-of-river hydropower plant. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4, 41–59.
Zurück zum Zitat Nobre, C. (2007). Caracterização do clima atual e definição das alterações climáticas para o território brasileiro ao longo do século XXI. São Paulo, Brazil: CPTEC, INPE. Nobre, C. (2007). Caracterização do clima atual e definição das alterações climáticas para o território brasileiro ao longo do século XXI. São Paulo, Brazil: CPTEC, INPE.
Zurück zum Zitat Nóbrega, M. T., et al. (2011). Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(2), 585–595.CrossRef Nóbrega, M. T., et al. (2011). Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(2), 585–595.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Paiva, R. C., Collischonn, W., & Buarque, D. C. (2013). Validation of a full hydrodynamic model for large-scale hydrologic modelling in the Amazon. Hydrological Processes, 27(3), 333–346.CrossRef Paiva, R. C., Collischonn, W., & Buarque, D. C. (2013). Validation of a full hydrodynamic model for large-scale hydrologic modelling in the Amazon. Hydrological Processes, 27(3), 333–346.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pereira, E. B., Martins, F. R., Pes, M. P., da Cruz Segundo, E. I., & Lyra, A. D. A. (2013). The impacts of global climate changes on the wind power density in Brazil. Renewable Energy, 49, 107–110.CrossRef Pereira, E. B., Martins, F. R., Pes, M. P., da Cruz Segundo, E. I., & Lyra, A. D. A. (2013). The impacts of global climate changes on the wind power density in Brazil. Renewable Energy, 49, 107–110.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pereira, M. V. F., & Pinto, L. M. V. G. (1984). Operation planning of large-scale hydroelectric systems. Proc. 8th Power System Computation Cont, 2, 3. Pereira, M. V. F., & Pinto, L. M. V. G. (1984). Operation planning of large-scale hydroelectric systems. Proc. 8th Power System Computation Cont, 2, 3.
Zurück zum Zitat Perez, P. (2009). Potential impacts of climate change on California’s energy infrastructure and identification of adaptation measures. California Energy Commission v. CEC-150-20, n. January, p. 1–19. Perez, P. (2009). Potential impacts of climate change on California’s energy infrastructure and identification of adaptation measures. California Energy Commission v. CEC-150-20, n. January, p. 1–19.
Zurück zum Zitat Pinto, H., & Assad, E. (2008). Aquecimento global e cenários futuro da agricultura brasileira. Campinas, Brazil: UNICAMP. Pinto, H., & Assad, E. (2008). Aquecimento global e cenários futuro da agricultura brasileira. Campinas, Brazil: UNICAMP.
Zurück zum Zitat Pryor, S. C., & Barthelmie, R. J. (2010). Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(1), 430–437.CrossRef Pryor, S. C., & Barthelmie, R. J. (2010). Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(1), 430–437.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sailor, D. J., Hu, T., Li, X., & Rosen, J. N. (2000). A neural network approach to local downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change. Renewable Energy, 19(3), 359–378.CrossRef Sailor, D. J., Hu, T., Li, X., & Rosen, J. N. (2000). A neural network approach to local downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change. Renewable Energy, 19(3), 359–378.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sailor, D. J., Smith, M., & Hart, M. (2008). Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States. Renewable Energy, 33(11), 2393–2406.CrossRef Sailor, D. J., Smith, M., & Hart, M. (2008). Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States. Renewable Energy, 33(11), 2393–2406.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Salati, E. (2010.) Estimativas da oferta de recursos hídricos no Brasil em cenários futuros de clima (2015–2100). São Paulo: Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades. Salati, E. (2010.) Estimativas da oferta de recursos hídricos no Brasil em cenários futuros de clima (2015–2100). São Paulo: Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades.
Zurück zum Zitat Salati, E., Campanhol, T., & Nova, N. (2007). Tendências de Variações Climáticas para o Brasil no Século XX e Balanços Hídricos para Cenários Climáticos para o Século XXI. São Paulo: Relatório N°4: Mudanças Climáticas e Possíveis Alterações nos Biomas da América do Sul, CPTEC, INPE. Salati, E., Campanhol, T., & Nova, N. (2007). Tendências de Variações Climáticas para o Brasil no Século XX e Balanços Hídricos para Cenários Climáticos para o Século XXI. São Paulo: Relatório N°4: Mudanças Climáticas e Possíveis Alterações nos Biomas da América do Sul, CPTEC, INPE.
Zurück zum Zitat Sathaye, J. A., Dale, L. L., Larsen, P. H., Fitts, G. A., Koy, K., Lewis, S. M., et al. (2013). Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 499–511.CrossRef Sathaye, J. A., Dale, L. L., Larsen, P. H., Fitts, G. A., Koy, K., Lewis, S. M., et al. (2013). Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 499–511.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A., Frossard Pereira De Lucena, A., Soria, R., & Chavez-Rodriguez, M. (2013). The vulnerable Amazon: The impact of climate change on the untapped potential of hydropower systems. Power and Energy Magazine, IEEE, 11(3), 22–31.CrossRef Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A., Frossard Pereira De Lucena, A., Soria, R., & Chavez-Rodriguez, M. (2013). The vulnerable Amazon: The impact of climate change on the untapped potential of hydropower systems. Power and Energy Magazine, IEEE, 11(3), 22–31.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A., & Lucena, A. (2008). Climate change and energy security. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: UFRJ/COPPE/PPE. Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A., & Lucena, A. (2008). Climate change and energy security. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: UFRJ/COPPE/PPE.
Zurück zum Zitat Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A. S., de Lucena, A. F. P., Borba, B. S. M. C., Nogueira, L. P. P., Fleming, F. P., et al. (2012). Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review. Energy, 38(1), 1–12.CrossRef Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A. S., de Lucena, A. F. P., Borba, B. S. M. C., Nogueira, L. P. P., Fleming, F. P., et al. (2012). Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review. Energy, 38(1), 1–12.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Schaeffer, R., et al. (2008). Mudanças Climaticas e Segurança Energética no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: PPE/COPPE/UFRJ. Schaeffer, R., et al. (2008). Mudanças Climaticas e Segurança Energética no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: PPE/COPPE/UFRJ.
Zurück zum Zitat Schaeffer, R., et al., (2010). Impactos na demanda e na confiabilidade no setor de energia. São Paulo: Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades. Schaeffer, R., et al., (2010). Impactos na demanda e na confiabilidade no setor de energia. São Paulo: Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades.
Zurück zum Zitat Schaeffer, R., et al. (2015). “Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas no Brasil: Cenários e Alternativas”. Relatório Final. Brasil 2040: Cenários e Alternativas de Adaptação à Mudança do Clima, Rio de Janeiro: Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos. Schaeffer, R., et al. (2015). “Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas no Brasil: Cenários e Alternativas”. Relatório Final. Brasil 2040: Cenários e Alternativas de Adaptação à Mudança do Clima, Rio de Janeiro: Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos.
Zurück zum Zitat Scianni, L. (2014). Avaliação Preliminar do Efeito das Mudanças Climáticas na Geração de Energia Elétrica. Universidade Federal de Itajubá, 91 p. Scianni, L. (2014). Avaliação Preliminar do Efeito das Mudanças Climáticas na Geração de Energia Elétrica. Universidade Federal de Itajubá, 91 p.
Zurück zum Zitat Siqueira, O. J. W., Steinmetz, S., Salles, L. A. B., & Fernandes, J. M. (2001). Efeitos Potenciais das Mudanças Climáticas na Agricultura Brasileira e Estratégias Adaptativas para Algumas Culturas. In: Mudanças Climáticas Globais e a Agropecuária Brasileira. Jaguariúna: Embrapa Meio Ambiente. p. 397 [Chapter 2], pp. 33–63. Siqueira, O. J. W., Steinmetz, S., Salles, L. A. B., & Fernandes, J. M. (2001). Efeitos Potenciais das Mudanças Climáticas na Agricultura Brasileira e Estratégias Adaptativas para Algumas Culturas. In: Mudanças Climáticas Globais e a Agropecuária Brasileira. Jaguariúna: Embrapa Meio Ambiente. p. 397 [Chapter 2], pp. 33–63.
Zurück zum Zitat Streck, N. A., & Alberto, C. M. (2006). Simulação do impacto da mudança climática sobre a água disponível do solo em agroecossistemas de trigo, soja e milho em Santa Maria. Ciência Rural, 36(2), 424–433.CrossRef Streck, N. A., & Alberto, C. M. (2006). Simulação do impacto da mudança climática sobre a água disponível do solo em agroecossistemas de trigo, soja e milho em Santa Maria. Ciência Rural, 36(2), 424–433.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Tolmasquim, M., Szklo, A., & Soares, J. (2003). Mercado de Gás natural na Indústria Química e no Setor Hospitalar Brasileiro Edições CENERGIA, Rio de Janeiro, 2003. Tolmasquim, M., Szklo, A., & Soares, J. (2003). Mercado de Gás natural na Indústria Química e no Setor Hospitalar Brasileiro Edições CENERGIA, Rio de Janeiro, 2003.
Zurück zum Zitat VicuñA, S., Leonardson, R., Dracup, J. A., Hanemann, M., & Dale, L. (2005). Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: a case study in the Upper American river”. In: California climate change Center. California Energy Commission, December. VicuñA, S., Leonardson, R., Dracup, J. A., Hanemann, M., & Dale, L. (2005). Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: a case study in the Upper American river”. In: California climate change Center. California Energy Commission, December.
Zurück zum Zitat Vicuna, S., et al. (2007). Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: A case study in the Upper American River. Climatic Change, 87(1), 123–137. Vicuna, S., et al. (2007). Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: A case study in the Upper American River. Climatic Change, 87(1), 123–137.
Zurück zum Zitat Whittington, H. W., & Gundry, S. (1996). Global climate change and hydroelectric power. In Opportunities and Advances in International Electric Power Generation, International Conference on (Conf. Publ. No. 419) (pp. 40–43). IET. Whittington, H. W., & Gundry, S. (1996). Global climate change and hydroelectric power. In Opportunities and Advances in International Electric Power Generation, International Conference on (Conf. Publ. No. 419) (pp. 40–43). IET.
Zurück zum Zitat Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., & Smith, G. (1990). Obtaining sub-grid-scale information from coarse-resolution general circulation model output. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 95(D2), 1943–1953.CrossRef Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., & Smith, G. (1990). Obtaining sub-grid-scale information from coarse-resolution general circulation model output. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 95(D2), 1943–1953.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Xu, C. Y. (1999). Climate change and hydrologic models: A review of existing gaps and recent research developments. Water Resources Management, 13(5), 369–382.CrossRef Xu, C. Y. (1999). Climate change and hydrologic models: A review of existing gaps and recent research developments. Water Resources Management, 13(5), 369–382.CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Climate Change and the Energy Sector in Brazil
verfasst von
Roberto Schaeffer
André F. P. Lucena
Isabella V. L. Costa
Eveline Vásquez
Cindy Viviescas
Vanessa Huback
Copyright-Jahr
2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_6