Climate Change Effects on Seaflower Biosphere Reserve Fishery Resources

The IPCC (2018, 2021) has indicated that global warming is likely to reach 1.5 °C or even 2 °C in the coming decades and has assured that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions should fall by 45% by 2030 if we want to avoid the most catastrophic effects of global warming. Climate change effects are being felt in marine and terrestrial organisms and ecosystems, and the most vulnerable economies and societies. The Caribbean region has been identified as one of the areas with the most significant risk, as it is increasingly affected by increases in sea and land temperatures, storm surges, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise, coral bleaching, impacts of intense tropical cyclones, and invasive species. The Caribbean region will experience 0.5–1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1971–2000 baseline. Impacts of ocean warming at 1.5 °C mean an overall high risk to the fisheries sector, implying moderate risk for seagrasses, very high risk of severe impacts for coral reefs, high risk for pteropods, and very high risk for bivalves and finfish (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018). Furthermore, there will be multiple cascade socioenvironmental impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries in the Caribbean region (Oxenford and Monnereau 2018).

Since the 1990s, a large volume of literature has emerged on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Recent research on this topic includes Cheung et al. (2010), Nurse (2011), Barange et al. (2014), FAO (2009, 2014, 2016), Gordon et al. (2018), Daw et al. (2009), and more specifically on fishery resources in the Caribbean Sea, Boavida-Portugal et al. (2018), Bonebrake et al. (2018), Caputi et al. (2013), and Oxenford and Monnereau (2017, 2018) highlighting numerous interrelated impacts on commercially important fishery species, including effects on distribution, abundance, seasonality, physiology, life processes, and indirect effects arising from habitat deterioration and socioeconomic implications. However, research on the effects of climate change on Caribbean marine species is, in general, considerably scarcer than in other regions.

Additionally, there is a lack of data related to island-specific effects and the integration of those into strategic planning and public policy (OECD 2021). Furthermore, there is a need for local island studies on fisheries that integrate the expert point of view and the fisher community’s perspective (Kettle et al. 2014). It is critical to consider different perceptions in order to, from the ground up, identify the right problem and formulate and implement participatory solutions.

Climate adaptation strategies are unlikely to be effective without understanding fishers’ perceptions (Mulyasari et al. 2018). According to Acosta et al. (2021), science should include various knowledge types across sectors, including community and traditional knowledge. Studies integrating local perspectives, such as bottom-up approaches, are increasingly valuable (Mastrandrea et al. 2010; Kettle et al. 2014; Monirul et al. 2017).

The relevance of understanding public perceptions of climate change effects on fishery resources is in its infancy. Until now, studies have explored fishers’ perceptions of climate change mainly in the Pacific and Asian regions. For example, Mulyasari et al. (2018) studied fishermen’s perceptions in Bengkulu Province, Indonesia, finding that Bengkulu fishermen are less aware of climate change and that there is, therefore, less implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. Diouf et al. (2020) analyze Senegalese fishers’ perception of climate variability and change and their attitude towards weather forecasts. The results show that the fishing communities in Senegal are aware of and willing to act to adapt to the effects of climate change. However, the study also found that access to weather forecasts was limited and the authors state that if all fishers could access weather forecasts, at least 83% of them would decide to postpone sea fishing activities in certain circumstances. The study highlights that the problem in taking adaptation measures is based on weaknesses in early warning systems. Jyun-Long (2020) selected Keelung City, New Taipei City, and Yilan County as case studies to analyze fishers’ perceptions of climate change in northeastern Taiwan. The author found that three variables significantly and positively affected fishers’ willingness to adapt fishing behavior: experience in fishing, recognition of impacts on marine physical environments, and preferences of risk control measures. To fully understand the challenges of climate change for marine fishery resources and to identify opportunities to mitigate them, the inclusion of fishers’ perception is essential.

The Archipelago of San Andrés, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (hereafter, the archipelago) is located in the western Caribbean region, and it has been classified as having one of the highest levels of climatic risk. Because of its biological diversity, cultural values, and natural ecosystem, UNESCO declared the archipelago as the Seaflower Biosphere Reserve in November 2000. The islands’ primary sources of income are tourism and commerce, followed by fishing. Fishing is key to the economy, as well as to cultural identity and food security. According to data from the Fishing and Aquaculture Registry and UNAL (2019), in 2018 there were approximately 887 artisanal fishers in the archipelago, with 624 located in San Andrés, and 263 in Providencia and Santa Catalina. Fishers undertake artisanal fishing activities in the archipelago in the following areas: Outside Bank, Southend Bank, Bolívar Cay, Albuquerque, Far Bank, and Serrana, Quitasueño, Serranilla, and Bajo Nuevo islands (Llanos 2015). Catches are made using traditional fishing techniques, especially hand lines. Some of the commercially significant fish and shellfish species in the archipelago include Panulirus argus (lobster), Eustrombus gigas (queen conch), Lutjanus spp. (Blackfin snappers), Sphyraena barracuda (barracuda), Ocyurus chrysurus (yellowtail), Etelis oculatus (mandilos), Elagatis bipinnulata (Ocean Yellowtail), Euthynnus alletteratus (bonito), Apsilus dentatus (black snapper), Epinephelus spp. (Rockfish), and Mycteroperca spp. (Yellowfin Grouper, Black Grouper). These species form the backbone of the local fishing industry and play a vital role in the archipelago’s food supply.

Local experts have warned that marine ecosystems have been experiencing dramatic deterioration processes in recent decades, specifically, pollution, the mechanical destruction of reefs, the effects of coral bleaching episodes, the loss of structural complexity in coral reefs, and recently (2022), the presence and spreading of the Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease (Navas-Camacho et al. 2019; CORALINA-INVEMAR 2017; CORALINA 2022). In this sense, there is a pending task in understanding and consolidating the impacts of climate change on Caribbean fishery resources and marine ecosystems. This chapter addresses this research priority and gap, and aims to provide information on the fishers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on fishery resources and proposed local adaptation strategies. It uses data from 27 surveys in 2019 and 22 in 2022. The research questions are: (i) What are the potential impacts of climate change on fishery resources and fishing activities? (ii) What are the impacts perceived by fishers? Moreover, (iii) How do fishers think climate change adaptation should be implemented?

The chapter is structured as follows. First, it describes the methodology for collecting and analyzing data about fishers’ perceptions and the integration of fishers’ knowledge into adaptation recommendations. Second, it provides an overview of the literature on climate change impacts on fishers and fishery resources. Third, the findings are divided into two parts: climate change impact perceptions, and proposed climate change adaptation strategies for the archipelago. Finally, the conclusion draws attention to the benefits of combining and contrasting the fishers’ survey results with scientific data to provide a seascape perspective of the fisheries environment. The direct benefit of this research is an improved understanding of the future risk scenario for fishery resources. An indirect benefit is that it empowers fishers to be actively involved in developing management options for the fisheries sector.

The general objective was to analyze the different effects of climate change on the archipelago’s primary fishery resources. The methodology used was a systematic literature review mixed with data from the knowledge of local fishers and key fisheries actors. The steps followed were: (1) search for scientific articles in the library catalog of various universities, Google Scholar, and multidisciplinary databases, (2) evaluate and select literature at the intersection of the search terms Climate Change, Fisheries, Caribbean, San Andrés Island, and Seaflower Biosphere Reserve. After that, the key information about specific fishery species was identified. Finally, (3) once the documentation was identified, information processing began through the following guiding questions: What are the key impacts? What are the conclusions and results of the investigations? How can this research be applied to the literature review?

The initial dataset in the literature review included around 104,000 publication results. In the first screening of the dataset, the authors read the titles and abstracts of the publications to determine which publications would be included in the final analysis. Based on this, approximately 40 articles were retained for final review. The second phase of a more specific search was carried out around the effects of climate change on strategic coastal marine ecosystems (mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs) and a final search for information on the archipelago’s most important commercial species, such as the queen conch and spiny lobster.

To include fishers’ voices, this chapter describes and analyzes how they framed climate change and its impacts. Forty-nine surveys were conducted, 27 in 2019 and 22 in 2022. The survey sample was a combination of randomly directed and targeted. Before data collection started, a structured survey questionnaire was tested with two respondents to ensure the adequacy of the questions and the information obtained. Data were collected using face-to-face and electronic surveys through Google Forms in November 2019 and June 2022, respectively. The survey sought information on the impacts of climate change on fishery resources, perceptions of climate change understandings, and adaptation strategies. Statistical analyses such as descriptive analysis were conducted to compare participants’ perceptions about climate change understandings and impacts. We went from deductive to inductive analysis, where umbrella themes were organized to identify adaptation strategies to climate change. The individuals surveyed for this study were fishers and practitioners with extensive experience and knowledge of marine resources. However, the information provided by these participants reflects their perceptions of climate change and should not be understood as representing the views of all stakeholders engaged in fisheries activities in the archipelago. We summarized the results of these surveys and focused on crucial similarities and dissimilarities between the scientific literature and local knowledge concerning climate change’s effects on fisheries.

According to IPCC reports (2018, 2021), climate change impacts are amplified for small tropical Caribbean islands. There are four main hazards for the Colombian Caribbean Sea (INVEMAR 2017): (1) sea level rise, which will be 81–90 mm by 2040, 171–200 mm by 2070, and 301–350 mm by 2100; (2) changes in sea surface temperature whose projections under the RCP 4.5 scenario for the 2041–2070 period increment between 27.5 and 28 °C, and the 2071–2100 scenario between 28 and 28.5 °C; (3) marine acidification whose pH trend concerning atmospheric content is towards a decrease in the Caribbean: a decrease of 0.102 (RCP4.5) and 0.159 (RCP6.0) is projected by 2100, in turn generating lower disposal of CaCO₃ in the form of aragonite; and (4) extreme events such as tropical cyclones will be more frequent and more intense, and are influenced by climate variability.

According to Monnereau and Oxenford (2017) and Monnereau et al. (2021), considering the high level of exposure to climate change, the high socioeconomic fragility of the fishing sector, and the low adaptive capacity of many small islands in the Caribbean region, the impact of climate change will be high. The Caribbean Sea is considered the second largest sea in the world, containing 7.64% of the world’s coral reefs and supporting over 500 fish species. The most important fish groups caught in commercial quantities are medium-sized pelagic fish, shrimps, lobster, and benthic mollusks (Smikle et al. 2010).

Coastal ecosystems provide essential services such as habitat and food provision, and carbon sequestration. For instance, most of the carbon stored by these ecosystems is found in the sediments: from 95 to 99% for coastal lagoons and seagrass, from 50 to 90% for mangroves, and the remaining carbon is in the biomass (Prato and Newball 2015). Coastal ecosystems are widely recognized for protecting the coastline by 70–90% against storms or tropical cyclones (Rodríguez 2015). Specifically, coral reefs dissipate wave energy by 97% on a global average (Ferrario et al. 2014). Coral reefs, seagrasses, and mangroves also serve as essential habitats and food provisions for local fishery resources (OECD 2021). McAllister (1988) found that healthy reefs in excellent conditions could provide around 18 tons of fish per km², which can decrease to 13 tons/km² for acceptable conditions and drop to 8 tons/km² for reefs in poor conditions. Mangrove-related fisheries could contribute USD 750 to USD 16,750 per hectare as highlighted by Rönnbäck (1999). This underscores that those economic benefits could strongly lessen or even disappear with each hectare of mangrove lost (Table 1). Among the primary marine ecosystems facing severe global pressures are coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrasses (Burke et al. 2011). Coral reefs are vulnerable to rising temperatures, leading to phenomena like coral bleaching, as observed by Hughes et al. (2017). Furthermore, ocean acidification negatively impacts coral growth and calcification (Doney et al. 2009), while tropical cyclones can rapidly destroy extensive areas of coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrasses, as documented by Cheal et al. (2017). Climate change exacerbates these challenges, driving up sea temperatures and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (IPCC 2021), causing cover and extension losses for marine ecosystems and socioenvironmental impacts on fisheries. In addition, in recent decades, climate change has significantly impacted coral reef health, for example, the rapid spreading of Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease, as coral reefs are more susceptible to diseases.

Optimal environments for coral development occur in regions with temperature ranges between 25 and 29 °C (Buddemeier et al. 2004). In Colombia, the temperatures recorded in coral reefs are between 24 and 28 °C on average per year under normal conditions. However, temperatures ranging between 26 and 29.5 °C have been reported in the archipelago (Guzman-Amaya et al. 2010). For the period 2041–2070, the mean SST is expected to increase between 0.9 and 1 °C (INVEMAR 2017). A temperature increase of 1–2 °C above the annual maximum value in an area can cause heat stress in corals (Mumby and van Woesik 2014; Kim et al. 2000; Oxenford and Monnereau 2017). If the temperature increases and persists for several weeks (three to four weeks), there is a higher incidence of diseases and massive coral bleaching events (Navas-Camacho et al. 2019; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018; Grimsditch and Salm 2005; Oxenford and Monnereau 2017). Van Hooidonk et al. (2015) have indicated that bleaching events are likely to become the key driver of reef decline. In San Andrés, coral bleaching events have occurred intensely and recurrently over the past three decades, in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2017 (Gómez-Campo et al. 2011). However, their impacts have been little documented. A coral reef grows through calcification processes that must be greater than erosion rates (Mallela and Perry 2007); the rise in sea level may increase wave energy, and thus corals will experience a higher level of energy, affecting coral growth and effectiveness in attenuating the energy of the waves. Consequently, the coastlines will be more eroded, and the impact of tropical storms and hurricanes will be more significant on the coasts.

Historically, the oceans have acted as vital buffers against climate change by absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂). However, the current state of climate change is altering ocean chemistry, triggering a series of interconnected and cumulative impacts within the fisheries sector. As a result, multiple adverse consequences have been observed, including reductions in fishing yields, economic disruption due to the destruction of settlements and infrastructure, economic deterioration, failure of livelihoods from fishing, biodiversity loss in traditional fishing areas, reduction in the habitability of reef islands leading to fish displacement or migration elsewhere, and loss of ecosystems and biodiversity (Lotze 2021; OECD 2021).

Oxenford and Monneareou (2017) contend that commercial Caribbean fisheries species are particularly vulnerable due to their already high thermal tolerance in the western Central Atlantic and the geographical constraints imposed by land barriers in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. These species are at heightened risk for two primary reasons. Firstly, their high thermal tolerance has allowed them to adapt to the naturally warm waters of the western Central Atlantic. However, as the climate changes, rising sea temperatures surpass the limits of their thermal tolerance, leading to various issues, including stress, reduced reproductive success, and elevated mortality rates among these species. Once a tipping point is crossed, these consequences can persist over extended periods and may become irreversible. Secondly, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, encircled by landmasses, impede the movement of marine species. As temperatures within these confined waters continue to rise, these species encounter limited opportunities for migration to cooler regions. In contrast to species in more open marine environments, which can migrate poleward to seek suitable temperatures, those within the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea can become trapped in increasingly unfavorable conditions. This combination of factors makes commercial Caribbean fisheries species highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.

Changes will not be felt homogeneously throughout the Caribbean region and in different marine species. The magnitude of the impacts will depend on greenhouse gas emission levels which, in turn, depend on the effort and initiatives carried out by society to reduce these emissions, and the awareness of the cause and effects of climate change. Furthermore, factors such as the ecological characteristics of marine organisms, their geographic locations, the level of development in specific areas, their vulnerability, and the choice of adaptation and mitigation strategies all play pivotal roles in either exacerbating or mitigating the effects of climate change.

According to Cheung et al. (2010) and FAO (2016), the main impacts on primary fishery resources are changes in the distribution of some marine species towards the poles and deeper waters, a reduction in the productivity of most marine organisms, and in general a reduction in the size of fish (Sheridan and Bickford 2011; Cheung et al. 2010; Daw et al. 2009) and shifting baselines (Jackson et al. 2011). According to Cheung (2018), the impacts on fishery resources can be grouped as follows:

Essentially, catches of commercial marine species might be reduced (Barange et al. 2014; Cheung et al. 2010; FAO 2018) meaning fishing operations, capture, landings of fish, and fishers’ livelihoods will be seriously affected (Fig. 1).

Climate change affects, directly and indirectly, the Caribbean fishery resources in reef fishes, conch, spiny lobster, coastal pelagic, oceanic pelagic, and deep slope fishes. Direct effects are related to physiology and life processes, for example, rates of growth and development, reproduction, and longevity. The indirect effects are related to significant impacts on marine-coastal ecosystems that affect nursery areas, living space, refuge, and predator–prey relationships, as well as the physical and biological oceanographic changes that affect the survival, dispersal, and settlement of the early stages of the life history, and influence migration and distribution shifts (Monnereau and Oxenford 2017; Cheung 2018). The effects on fishing resources are organized into three main groups, according to types of habitats and fishing techniques: reef-associated shallow shelf, deep slope species, and oceanic pelagic fish. The following paragraphs and Table 1 use Monnereau and Oxenford’s (2017) classification and analysis to describe species in each category and their impacts.

In general, marine organisms have multiple levels of responses to climate change, for example, changes in the distribution and composition of plankton and the timing of phytoplankton blooms, ocean species range shifts, increased incidence of marine diseases, changes in physiology and fish behavior, altered timing and duration of spawning and migrations, disruption of food webs, and changes in the populations’ genetic structure and productivity. The fish group that will be most affected by climate change-associated hazards are the reef-associated shallow shelf and benthic species, not only due to the species’ ecology but also because of habitat deterioration. In general, the few published studies on the direct impacts of climate change on Caribbean-specific species like queen conch, spiny lobster, and red snappers, among others, demonstrate a significant research gap for the Caribbean region and especially for the archipelago.

To summarize and consolidate the various climate change impacts on marine ecosystems, fishery resources, and the fisheries sector stated in the literature, a progression graph is developed that shows the climate drivers, changes in fishery resources, fishers’ fragility, and the adverse consequences (Fig. 1).

An illustration presents the factors of increased fisheries risk. Climate change drivers such as sea level rise and extreme events, ecosystem impacts such as coastal inundation and marine ecosystem mortality, changes in fish properties such as individual survival, fishes' fragility such as low economic capacity, and advance consequences in fisheries are the factors.

From the seventeenth century to the present, marine ecosystems have played a vital role in sustaining local food sources for the archipelago. Artisanal fishing activities have historically provided fishery resources, including fish, lobster, queen conch, and more (INVEMAR-ANH 2012; Prato and Newball 2015; Velásquez 2019). These activities are primarily carried out by the Raizal community, utilizing small boats of approximately 40 ft. or 12 m in length, with a capacity of under 5 tons (Santos-Martínez et al. 2019).

However, the fisheries in Seaflower face many challenges, mirroring global issues in the sector. These challenges include overfishing, habitat loss, illegal fishing, data uncertainty for population assessments, environmental impacts, and political factors affecting fisheries management (Santos-Martínez et al. 2019).

Amid these challenges, changes in the artisanal fishing landscape have been observed in recent years. The number of artisanal fishers in the area has undergone notable reductions over the past five years. In 2015, San Andrés had 1,408 artisanal fishers, with Providencia having 472. However, by 2017, these numbers had declined, with San Andrés at 585 and Providencia at 249. Furthermore, in 2019, the count stood at 624 registered artisanal fishers in San Andrés and 263 in Providencia, indicating a general decrease in recent years (Gobernación departamental de San Andrés, Providencia y Santa Catalina 2019).

Additionally, climate change’s negative impacts and climate variability affect fishers’ livelihoods in the archipelago. This is especially true as the archipelago is exposed to the impact of both climate change-related stressors and human activities. According to Bejarano (2016) and Ortiz (2016), fishers have experienced a prolonged impact since 2012. The International Court of Justice-ICJ judgment considerably reduced the daily catch. In 2012, the ICJ confirmed Colombia’s sovereignty over the disputed islands while granting Nicaragua a significant maritime territory of approximately 75,000 km² extending Nicaragua’s Continental Shelf (CS) and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). However, this decision adversely affected the spatial integrity of the Archipelago, the RB Seaflower, its Marine Protected Areas, the ancestral territory of the Raizal People, and their cultural, environmental, and food security practices tied to fishing (ICJ 2012; Ortiz 2023). For instance, in 2012, the average fishing catch reached 1,000 pounds a week, while in 2016, fishers got only 250 pounds of fish a week. Since 2012, fishers do not have access to traditional fishing areas since they are no longer under Colombian jurisdiction. Indeed, the gradual reduction of fishery resources, climate change effects, and high tourism demand have made it more difficult for fishers to supply local fish than foreign freshwater fish. Few studies have explored the social and political impacts on the small-scale fisheries of San Andrés.

On November 16, 2020, Hurricane Iota hit the archipelago, mainly the islands of Providencia and Santa Catalina, causing severe impacts in the fishing sector. There were severe impacts on mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs. For instance, in Providencia, observations include the defoliation of 90% of mangroves, a significant decrease in the biomass of seagrasses, and significant damages to coral reefs, affecting food provision, natural barriers, and carbon sequestration ecosystem services (ES). Moreover, the entire fishing fleet and fishing infrastructure were lost, and more than 350 fishers were affected. There were losses and damages to more than 170 boats and 188 motors, fishing gear, refrigerators, and infrastructure for fishery product collection, conservation, and commercialization (Guzman 2021). In response to this situation, priority actions were established through collaboration between the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the National Aquaculture and Fisheries Authority, and the fishing organizations in Providencia, aiming to facilitate the recovery of the sector and strengthen the associative and entrepreneurial processes of fishing organizations.

Overall, San Andrés, Providencia, and Santa Catalina, all part of the archipelago, exhibit differences in geographic, environmental, and economic factors. Hurricane Iota, for instance, inflicted far more devastating damage on Providencia than on San Andrés, shaping the islands’ responses to climate-related challenges. Additionally, the islands differ significantly regarding tourism dynamics and resource management. With its developed tourism infrastructure, San Andrés experiences higher tourism demand and, consequently, it faces more pronounced challenges related to resource depletion and environmental sustainability. Providencia and Santa Catalina, on the other hand, have maintained a more eco-conscious approach to tourism, emphasizing conservation efforts and preserving their natural assets. These differences in economic and environmental strategies highlight the unique paths each island has taken in balancing fisheries and tourism growth.

The Seaflower Biosphere Reserve’s fishers are highly vulnerable. Results from the socioeconomic characterization survey carried out with 636 artisanal fishers by the Secretariat for Agriculture in 2014, give us an approximation of their social fragility, in which 87.30% of participants were not affiliated with a retirement pension fund. For most of them, their economic income is not enough to pay for health insurance and a pension fund. 82.29% are heads of the family, 30% of these are married, 28% live in free union and almost 15% are single. This shows the relevance of fisheries work in supporting their families. 22.2% of fishers earn between 301,000 Colombian Pesos (COP) (US $155) and COP 600,000 (US $309) per month to support an average of 4 people. The fishers’ vulnerability decreases as their socioeconomic situation improves.

Accordingly, taking preventive and adaptive local actions is the main way to face global changes. Adaptation is a two-step estimation process: first, perceiving the change and, second, deciding whether to adapt by adopting a particular measure (Mulyasari et al. 2018). In this sense, implementing local future management interventions in fishing activities depends on fishers’ vulnerability and perceptions. Unfortunately, there have been few studies in the archipelago documenting islanders’ perceptions: Velásquez (2011) studied farmers’ perception of hurricanes, Ruiz de la Cruz (2016) analyzed the perception of the deterioration of the landscape and natural resources related to the tourism sector, and Correa (2012) studied local knowledge and beliefs about the climate on the islands of Providencia and Santa Catalina. In other words, there is a knowledge gap concerning the perception of climate change impacts on fishery resources.

Fishers’ perceptions influence resource extraction patterns and the protective and adaptation measures taken (Acosta et al. 2021). According to Mulyasari et al. (2018), perceptions influence the readiness and willingness of fishers to adapt and adjust to climate change. These perceptions are based on beliefs, knowledge, and past experiences, and are particularly important for the archipelago where there is weak fisheries governance. Accordingly, this study conducted forty-nine surveys, 27 in 2019 and 22 in 2022, to learn more about fishers’ perceptions.

Findings show that fishers have noticed changes in the climate and fishery resources, based on climate-related manifestations. Participants perceive changes in dry and rainy seasons, increased coastal erosion, changes in the ocean and earth temperatures, aquifer salinization, and increased hurricane frequency. Participants in 2019 said that the most critical climate change stressor in recent years has been droughts (85%), followed by changes in the sea surface temperature and hurricanes. Precipitation reduction magnifies the effects of the rise in salinity, which has repercussions on the quantity and quality of fishery resources (Diouf et al. 2020). Additionally, the areas of rapid coastal erosion on San Andrés, Providencia, and Santa Catalina are linked not only to sea level rise, but also to the extraction of sand from the beach for building houses and roads which, in turn, is affecting fishing docks and houses.

Analyzing fishers’ perceptions before and after Hurricane Iota offers valuable insights into their experiences and evolving environmental awareness. Prior to the hurricane (2019 survey), fishers primarily perceived drought as the main hazard, influenced by recurrent dry conditions in the region. However, after the destructive impact of Hurricane Iota (2022 survey), there was a noticeable shift in hazard perception. While drought continued to be a concern, the hurricane’s devastating effects elevated the perception of hurricanes as a significant hazard. This heightened awareness of multiple hazards profoundly impacted their priorities and risk perception, causing them to view drought and hurricanes as substantial threats to their livelihoods and communities. Policymakers and disaster management agencies must consider these evolving perceptions when crafting resilience and preparedness strategies that address a broader spectrum of hazards and their interactions.

Participants perceived that the main problem facing the fisheries sector is the capture and commercialization of small-sized juveniles and ovate females (55.5%), the use of prohibited equipment, such as diving tanks that affect the renewal of fishery resources, and 44.5% mentioned fish overexploitation. Participants did not prioritize climate change as the main current problem.

Overall, the survey results (2019 and 2022) show that 100% of participants think that the climate is changing, and that the fisheries sector is currently being affected by these changes. Participants mentioned that the various changes directly affect household food security and infrastructure. They also argued that this makes it difficult to plan their fishing activities: “there is a reduction of the fishing resource in the areas traditionally used for fishing, because when the water warms up, fish migrate.”

Results show that participants are aware of human responsibility for global warming. For example, 51% of participants think that natural and social processes cause climate change, 30.6% think climate change is caused only by social factors, and 16.3% think only natural factors cause climate changes. These results, however, indicate the need to continue implementing risk communication strategies explaining the causes, risks, and uncertainties surrounding potential changes over the coming years, decades, and centuries (Pidgeon and Fischhoff 2011).

Participants listed the leading climate change effects as follows: decreased fish population, the disappearance of species, fish migration, and changes in the reproduction cycle. Most participants (82%) in 2022 perceived that all fishery resources, including reef-associated shallow shelf species, deep slope species, queen conch, and spiny lobster, were being affected by climate change. In 2019, participants perceived that the primary fishery resources affected by climate change were reef-associated shallow shelf species (45%), followed by queen conch and spiny lobster (37%). Likewise, half of the participants in 2022 perceived that all marine ecosystems, including coral reefs, soft sandy bottoms, seagrasses, and mangroves, have been affected by climate change. Some participants (31.8%) highlighted that the coral reef ecosystem is the one with the most significant impacts, followed by mangrove ecosystems (22.7%).

In response to the question, what are the potential impacts of climate change on fishery resources and fishing activities? Participants answered (including 2019 and 2022 participants):

Participants perceive that local institutions are not prepared to face climate change impacts and its associated stressors, and they make the following recommendations:

Overall, local perspectives are in line with general scientific results. Fishers recognize the climate stressors and consequences and identify management actions. However, participants did not prioritize climate change as the main current problem for the fisheries sector. Fishers perceive the general effects of climate change and the relationship between marine ecosystem deterioration and marine organism changes. However, participants did not point out specific impacts on commercial fishery resources. Results indicate the necessity to move from general to specific and detailed information for each fishery resources group in the archipelago. It is also necessary to raise awareness about the socioenvironmental cascade impacts in the fishing sector and the interaction between hazards and vulnerabilities in impact magnitude. Generally, new observations made by fishers are related to the intensification of transboundary and local social conflicts between fishers and the illegal fisheries practices related to climate change effects and exacerbation. Moreover, fishers argue that the catching and commercialization of small-sized juveniles, ovate females, and the use of prohibited equipment such as diving tanks are affecting the renewal of fishery resources. Fishers did not mention neurological and genetic fish changes resulting from ocean changes.

There is a growing perception that climate change is caused by a combination of natural and anthropic factors. However, there is still a belief that climate change is exclusively a natural phenomenon. There is not enough clarity on how each fisher can contribute to reducing impacts and adapting to climate change. Fishers also firmly believe that industrial fishing should not be allowed in the archipelago. Fishers have cared for the environment, and marine protected areas are primarily considered in terms of both biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, and, most importantly, as a strategy to face and adapt to climate changes. Recommendations related to improving monitoring programs, data collection, and risk assessments were not mentioned.

Based on the general review of the threats and their effects on the strategic marine-coastal ecosystems and primary fishing resources of the Caribbean, and considering the recommendations made by fishers and the different researchers cited in previous sections, as well as international organizations like FAO and national ones like the National Planning Department and the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, five guidelines for adaptation to climate change are listed below.

This chapter first reviewed existing knowledge of the multiple impacts of climate change on commercial fishery resources in the western Caribbean region. Second, to promote the integration of local and scientific knowledge, it assessed fishers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on fishery resources.

There is extensive information available on climate change hazard projections and their possible effects, but little information on marine species levels in the Caribbean region. The same situation is true for marine ecosystems, where the coral reef is the most studied. Key knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of the implications of climate and ocean chemistry changes for marine fisheries in the archipelago, particularly on the social and economic responses of the fishing sector to climate change. Despite the increasing interest in the impacts of climate change in the archipelago, economic vulnerability and social-ecological adaptation strategies are still largely unknown. There is a need for specific studies on biophysical variables and species, long-term impacts of ocean acidification on species, including the relationship to disease outbreaks, and cascade effects related to the interconnectivity of coastal ecosystems (Mycoo et al. 2022; McField 2017; Wilson 2017). However, these knowledge gaps should not delay the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies.

The analysis of the fishers’ perceptions about climate change and its impacts on fisheries, revealed that fishers have already noticed changes in temperature and rainfall trends. Findings showed that the fishers in the archipelago are aware of and are willing to act to adapt to the effects of climate change. However, participants did not prioritize climate change as the main current problem. Fishers’ perceptions are largely aligned with the consequences of climate change as described and analyzed by scientists. Climate change impacts have adversely affected the fisheries sector in multiple ways: loss of coastal fish breeding habitats such as coral reefs, soft sandy bottoms, seagrasses, and mangroves; the migration of large schools of fish to deeper waters; a decline in fish and shellfish productivity in traditional fishing areas; an increase in invasive species, diseases, and algal blooms; changes in biological properties in marine organisms; queen conch and spiny lobster present reduced calcification and overall abundance; reduced fisheries productivity, reduced fishing operations, and higher adaptation costs; increased risk to food security; and increased local and cross border conflicts over fishery resources.

Finally, as a way to integrate the knowledge of scientists and fishers, we proposed five guidelines for adaptation to climate change for the archipelago: a participatory ecosystem approach for the co-management of shared natural resources; alternative economic activities for artisanal fishers; knowledge and risk communication to raise awareness and inform fishers about cascade climate change effects; promote vulnerability studies to understand root causes and stimulate adaptation actions; and strengthening the Seaflower Marine Protected Area.