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2018 | Buch

Climate Change Impacts

Select Proceedings of ICWEES-2016

herausgegeben von: Prof. Dr. Vijay P Singh, Prof. Dr. Shalini Yadav, Prof. Dr. Ram Narayan Yadava

Verlag: Springer Singapore

Buchreihe : Water Science and Technology Library

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SUCHEN

Über dieses Buch

This book comprises the select proceedings of the International Conference on Water, Environment, Energy and Society. The book is divided into four parts. Part I deals with some aspects of climatic characteristics ranging from changes in temperature and sunshine hours to downscaling to global climate patterns and effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on extreme rainfall. Part II covers rainfall analysis, including changes in regional rainfall series, analysis of non-stationarity, summer monsoon and rainfall scenarios. Impacts of climate change are treated in Part III. Change point analysis, greenhouse gas emissions, rainfall variability, water resources variability, and water resources sustainability are discussed in this part. The concluding Part IV is on low flow and drought. It deals with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) concept and assessment of drought. This book is of interest to researchers and practitioners in the field of water resources, hydrology, environmental resources, agricultural engineering, watershed management, and earth sciences, as well as those engaged in natural resources planning and management. Graduate students and those wishing to conduct further research in water and environment and their development and management find the book to be of value.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Climatic Characteristics

Frontmatter
Trends in Temperature for the Himalayan Environment of Leh (Jammu and Kashmir), India
Abstract
Climate parameters variability affects significantly on water resources, and therefore on the livelihood of the common people, especially in water scarce countries. The aim of this study was to explore changes in the maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures using the monthly data of Leh taking last 15 years from 2000 to 2014, which is situated in the western Indian Himalaya. Trends analyses were performed with nonparametric statistics proposed by Mann-Kendall at different time scales in arid environments of Leh. On monthly basis, a significant falling trend in maximum temperature and minimum temperature has been observed at 5% significance level in the month of July at the rate of 1.7 °C per decade and in the month of August at the rate of 1.3 °C per decade, respectively. However, no trend has been observed in other time scales at 5% level of significance. The observed change in temperature will affect all biochemical reactions of photosynthesis thus in turn will have negative impact on plant growth.
Rohitashw Kumar, Zeenat Farooq, Deepak Jhajharia, V. P. Singh
Changes in Sunshine Duration in Humid Environments of Agartala (Tripura), India
Abstract
Study of changes in the global solar radiation is one of the key factors in sustainable agricultural production and management. Therefore, we investigated trends in the solar radiation using sunshine duration as a suitable alternative, based on the recommendation of the FAO Irrigation and Drainage—Paper No. 56, by using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test at different time scales in the humid environments of Northeast India. The average annual bright sunshine hours over Agartala is found to be 6.6 hours (h) with a standard deviation of 0.4 h and coefficient of variation of 6.4%. On annual (seasonal) time scale, statistically significant decreasing trends in bright sunshine duration through the MK test were observed at 5% level of significance at the rate of 0.245 h/decade (0.545 and 0.118 h/decade in winter and monsoon) over Agartala. Similarly, sunshine decreases were observed in the months of January, February, March, May, September, October, and December in the range of 0.237–0.688 h/decade. The observed decreases in sunshine duration modify the evapotranspiration process and affect the crop water requirements, which, in turn, will negatively influence the agricultural production in humid environments of Northeast India.
D. Jhajharia, P. K. Pandey, Vanita Pandey, P. P. Dabral, R. R. Choudhary, R. Kumar, V. P. Singh
Application of Multiple Linear Regression as Downscaling Methodology for Lower Godavari Basin
Abstract
This paper focused on future precipitation scenarios adopting statistical downscaling approach, namely, Multiple linear regression (MLR) for Lower Godavari basin, India. Global Climate Model (GCM), namely, GFDL-CM3 simulations, are used for downscaling purpose. Five grid points of Lower Godavari basin are considered. Reanalysis data from National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the study area from 1969 to 2005 is used for analysis. Precipitation is chosen as predictand. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, 4.5 and 6.0 are used for the study. Projected precipitation from 2006 to 2100 is obtained by the developed MLR model. Downscaled precipitation predictions show that there is increase in precipitation in the future.
Gayam Akshara, K. Srinivasa Raju, Ajit Pratap Singh, A. Vasan
Statistical Downscaling of Minimum Temperature of Raipur (C.G.) India
Abstract
The future projected climate parameters obtained from using generalized circulation models (GCMs) cannot be used directly on regional or basin scale because of coarse resolution. The dynamic or statistical downscaling procedures are used to convert global scale output to regional scale condition. The statistical downscaling because of its less computational skills is preferably used for generation of future climate and in the present study, minimum temperature of Raipur was forecasted for three future periods using Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM) predictors for A1B and A2 climate forcing conditions. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) has been used using k-fold validation technique for generation of multitemporal series for periods FP-1 (2020–2035), FP-2 (2046–2064), and FP-3 (2081–2100). The specific humidity at 850 hpa (nceps850gl), 500 hpa geopotential height (ncepp500gl), and surface airflow strength (ncep_fgl) were found to be the most appropriate parameters to generate future scenarios. The comparison of mean monthly minimum temperature of generated scenarios with base period confirmed 1.1–11.2% increase of minimum temperature under A1B climate forcing and 2.88–24.44% in summer months will have adverse effect on various demands and human health in future and adaptation measures need to be devised for the region.
R. K. Jaiswal, H. L. Tiwari, A. K. Lohani, R. N. Yadava
Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperatures and Precipitation Data from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5)-RCPs Experiment: In Weyib River Basin, Southeastern Ethiopia
Abstract
Impact of climate change on the temperature and precipitation characteristics of Weyib River basin in Ethiopia has been investigated using CanESM2 model for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The statistical downscaling model calibrated and validated using the observed daily data of 12 meteorological stations was used to generate the future scenario. The change in mean annual maximum temperature from the base period has indicated an increment of 0.16, 0.14, and 0.15 °C for RCP2.6, 0.12, 0.19, and 0.21 °C for RCP4.5, and 0.12, 0.22 and 0.32 °C for RCP8.5 for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Mean annual minimum temperature has shown an increment of 0.30, 0.43, and 0.39 °C for RCP2.6, 0.31, 0.48, and 0.57 °C for RCP4.5, and 0.34, 0.66 and 1.04 °C for RCP8.5 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. For the percentage change in mean annual precipitation from the base period, the increment has been 8.68, 12.93, and 11.34% for RCP2.6, 9.54, 14.36, and 16.94% for RCP4.5, and 14.70, 19.14, and 28.69% for RCP8.5 for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. There was a significantly (at 5% significant level) increasing trend of both temperatures and precipitation in all the three RCPs for future until the year 2100. The increment of rainfall in the study area was comparatively higher in the dry season 20.68% in the 2020s, 33.65% in 2050s, and 53.74% in 2080s for RCP8.5 which might have positive impact on pastoral region of the study area and it might affect the highland areas negatively since this season is expressly main crop harvesting period.
Abdulkerim Bedewi Serur, Arup Kumar Sarma
Global Climate Pattern Behind Hydrological Extremes in Central India
Abstract
The concurrent influence of large-scale, coupled oceanic–atmospheric circulation patterns was established to have an effect on hydrologic variability across the world. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are, in particular, important for Indian hydroclimatology. However, it is now established that rather than just a few well-known teleconnection patterns, a Global Climate Pattern (GCP) comprising of a global field of several climate anomalies are responsible for above-normal and below-normal precipitation events over entire India. The existence of a GCP for hydrological extremes in an even smaller spatial scale is illustrated in this study. The central part of India, consisting of the contiguous homogeneous meteorological subdivisions—West Madhya Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chattisgarh (hereinafter ‘central India’), is selected as the study area. Hydrological extremes (this study focus on precipitation) in the study area are identified in terms of the Standardized Precipitation Anomaly Index (SPAI), which is suitable for quantifying extreme events in a monsoon-dominated climatology. After investigation of the global anomaly fields of five climate variables, a set of 19 specific zones of climate anomalies from across the world are found to constitute the GCP for the hydrological extremes in the study region. The identified GCP is further utilized in a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to investigate the potential of the GCP in foreseeing dry and wet extremes over the study area.
Kironmala Chanda, Rajib Maity
Changes in ENSO and IOD Effects on the Extreme Rainfall of Hyderabad City, India
Abstract
The global physical processes such as El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) have a significant impact on Indian extreme rainfall. Recent studies show that the impact of ENSO cycle on Indian rainfall has changed. Therefore, understanding the changes in the effects of these physical processes on extreme rainfall of an urban area may help us to reduce the damage caused by urban floods. In this study, the changes in ENSO and IOD effects on the Hyderabad city monsoon/non-monsoon extreme rainfall between 1901–1950 and 1951–2004 are analyzed. The findings of this study indicate that the effect of IOD on non-monsoon months’ extreme rainfall of the Hyderabad city is significantly reduced while there is no significant change in monsoon season relationship. In addition, a significant increase in ENSO effects on non-monsoon months’ very extreme rainfall of the Hyderabad city is observed.
V. Agilan, N. V. Umamahesh

Rainfall Analysis

Frontmatter
Detecting Changes in Regional Rainfall Series in India Using Binary Segmentation-Based Multiple Change-Point Detection Techniques
Abstract
In this chapter, the rainfall patterns of five homogeneous regions in India namely Northwest, West Central, Central Northeast, Northeast and Peninsular India for the years 1871–2013 were analyzed using two change-point detection (CPD) techniques namely Binary Segmentation based on Cumulative sum and Likelihood ratio approaches. The CPD methodology involves estimation of threshold values based on Monte Carlo simulation. On applying the CPD techniques for five regions, the results showed that for most of the regions there were no significant change-points in annual/monsoon rainfall series except for monsoon rainfall in Northeast India. Further, the study extended to detect the changes in future rainfall for Northeast region by analyzing the outputs from global climate models. The findings of this study can help in better understanding the spatial variations and changing patterns of rainfall across India, and consequently in proper planning and management of water resources in the region.
Shagufta Akbari, M. Janga Reddy
Analyzing Non-stationarity in the Hyderabad City Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves
Abstract
The infrastructure design is primarily based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and the current IDF curves are based on the concept of stationary extreme value theory (i.e. occurrence probability of extreme precipitation is not expected to change significantly over time). But, the extreme precipitation events are increasing due to global climate change and questioning the reliability of our current infrastructure design. In this study, the trend in Hyderabad city 1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24- and 48-h duration annual maximum rainfall series are analyzed using the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, and a significant increasing trend is observed. Further, based on recent theoretical developments in the extreme value theory (EVT), non-stationary rainfall IDF curve for the Hyderabad city is developed by incorporating linear trend in the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The study results indicate that the IDF curves developed under the stationary assumption are underestimating the precipitation extremes.
V. Agilan, N. V. Umamahesh
Development of Finer Resolution Rainfall Scenario for Kangsabati Catchment and Command
Abstract
Study of the regional scale hydrology of a basin due to impacts of climate change has gained the attention of researchers in the recent past. The general circulation model (GCM), widely used tools for assessing the impacts of climate change, usually predict the hydrological variables of interest at a large-scale, which necessitates the use of downscaling techniques. In this study, Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) and Kernel Regression (KR) two downscaling techniques were compared on the basis of performance statistics, Mean, root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The eleven predictors used from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and four GCMs namely, CanESM2, MPI-ESM-LR, CNRM-CM5, and IPSL-CM5A-LR. The best-performed technique among these two techniques was used to develop multi-GCM ensemble daily rainfall scenario at rain gauge stations of Kangsabati study area for high emission scenario (RCP8.5).
P. M. Dhage, N. S. Raghuwanshi, R. Singh
Investigation of the Relationship Between Natural Aerosols and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using a Climate Model
Abstract
Using all forcing simulations of fully coupled climate model GFDL-CM3, an attempt has been made to represent the role of natural aerosols (such as dust) in modulating the summer monsoon rainfall over the Central Indian region. For this purpose, long-term data set of dust, winds and rainfall have been obtained from CMIP5 data portal for the past 54 years of time period. The spatial pattern of dust load from GFDL-CM3 is able to capture the potential dust sources such as Sahara Desert, Arabian Peninsula region. Further to this, it has been observed that the load of dust over the Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsula is significantly correlated (significant at 1% significance level) with the rainfall over the central Indian region, suggesting an in-phase relationship between the two parameters.
Charu Singh, Dilip Ganguly, S. K. Dash

Impacts of Climate Change

Frontmatter
Change Point Analysis of Air Temperature in India
Abstract
Change point analysis was performed on air temperature at different pressure levels in the Indian subcontinent to identify the time at which a major change in trend, if any, has occurred. Pettit test, a nonparametric test to identify change points in a time series was used for this purpose. It tests, the null hypothesis that the variable follows one or more distributions that have the same location parameter against the alternate hypothesis that a change point exists. The significance of the change point is determined and if it is greater than the considered level of 90% confidence, then, the change point is considered to be significant. The test was performed on the surface temperature data of the Indian subcontinent for the period 1949–2014, obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set at a resolution of 2.5°. The results of the test for the dry period indicate that the southern, northern and northeastern parts of India exhibited a significant change point in the nineteen seventies. During the wet season and the southwest monsoon season, a significant change was observed in the southern, central and eastern parts of India in the last decade. Analysis of the annual mean temperature revealed that a significant change point occurred in South India in the last decade.
N. R. Chithra, Santosh G. Thampi, Dilber Shahul, Sankar Muralidhar, Upas Unnikrishnan, K. Akhil Rajendran
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Sewage Treatment Plants Based on Sequential Batch Reactor in Maharashtra
Abstract
Wastewater treatment systems contribute significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The main greenhouse gases emitted during the wastewater treatment processes are methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Sequential batch reactor (SBR) is a type of an activated sludge process, and due to its high efficiency, currently, this is the preferred technology for the construction of new wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This study presents the estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from SBR domestic wastewater treatment plants in Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra. We estimated direct emissions from wastewater treatment processes as well as indirect emissions due to energy usage during the treatment process. A total emission of ~35 kt CO2-eq/year was estimated for six SBR-based WWTPs having combined treatment capacity of 474 MLD. All except one of these plants were well managed. In the case of not so well-managed SBR plants, significant methane production occurs during the treatment process. In the long run, if these plants are not well managed, the emission could increase by three to fourfolds for the same treatment capacity. In either case, major GHG emissions are due to CH4 emission during the treatment process. The contribution of N2O is negligible towards total GHG emissions.
Vipin Singh, Harish C. Phuleria, Munish K. Chandel
Study of Climate Change in Uttarakhand Himalayas: Changing Patterns of Historical Rainfall
Abstract
The subject area of climate change is vast, but the changing pattern of rainfall is a topic within this field that deserves urgent and systematic attention since it affects the availability of freshwater, food production and the occurrence of water related disasters triggered by extreme events. The detection of trends in rainfall is essential for the assessment of the impacts of climate variability and change on the water resources of a region. In June 2013, several days of extremely heavy rain caused devastating floods in the region, resulting in more than 5000 people missing and presumed dead. The present study aims to determine trends in the annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall over Uttarakhand State. Long-term (1901–2013) gridded daily rainfall data at 0.25° grid have been used. Daily rainfall data at ten grid center locations (five each in Garhwal and Kumaon divisions) in the vicinity of Haridwar, Tehri, Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Joshimath, Almora, Bageshwar, Munsiyari, Pithoragarh, and Rudrapur have been processed and analyzed for a period of 113 years (1901–2013). Historical trends in daily rainfall have been examined using parametric (regression analysis) and non-parametric (Mann–Kendall (MK) statistics). On the basis of regression and MK test, rising and falling trend in rainfall and anomalies at various stations have been analyzed. The result shows that many of these variables demonstrate statistically significant changes occurred in last eleven decades. Statistically significant increasing trends of annual as well as monsoon rainfall have been observed at Haridwar, Rudraprayag, Joshimath, Almora, and Munsiyari whereas statistically significant decreasing trends of monthly rainfall (August, September, and October) have been observed at Uttarkashi and Tehri stations.
Archana Sarkar, Vaibhav Garg
The Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Variability: A Study in Central Himalayas
Abstract
The impact of anthropogenic activities on the earth atmosphere and its systems has been an area of extensive research and engaging the attention of planners, governments, and politicians worldwide. The countries across the world are engaged in working out the impacts and associated vulnerabilities to the projected climate change. In India, the meteorological records indicate rise in the mean annual surface air temperature by 0.4 °C with not much variations in absolute rainfall. However, the rates of change in temperatures and precipitation have been found to be varying across the region. The intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events have increased in the last 50 years. No change in the total quantity of rainfall is expected, however, the spatial pattern of the rainfall is likely to change, with rise in number and intensity of extreme rainfall events. The continuous warming and resulting change in rainfall pattern over different regions of Indian may adversely impact the natural resources on which majority of the population is dependent. Thus there is an ever increasing recognition of the need for micro and macro level assessments for greater understanding about the impact and implication of the current climate variability especially in eco-sensitive Himalayan region, where such studies are limited due to lack of adequate observational sites and related data. This study investigates the rainfall variability trends on annual and seasonal scales in the central Himalayan region. Eight observational sites at Almora, Nainital, Ranikhet, HawalBagh, Mukteshwar, Mukhim, Dehradun, and Mussoorie situated at different altitude in the central Himalaya region are considered for the study. These sites are situated within the altitude range of 682–2311 m. Statistical tools such as Mann–Kendall test, Sens’s estimator of slope method (nonparametric) and regression (parametric), have been applied to analyze the rainfall variability trends at these observational sites. The significance of these trends has been tested at the 95% confidence level. The results indicate that there is decreasing trend at all the stations annually, however; only two stations show significantly decreasing trends at 95% confidence level. At seasonal scale, monsoon rainfall indicates decreasing trends at most of the stations in the region, whereas winter rainfall also shows the similar patterns. These temporal and spatial patterns of rainfall variability in central Himalayas may provide useful insights for the long-term planning and management of water resources and also useful for climatic studies in this region.
L. N. Thakural, Sanjay Kumar, Sanjay K. Jain, Tanvear Ahmad
Estimation of Changes in Annual Peak Flows in Netravathi River Basin, Karnataka, India
Abstract
Flood is one of the most chronic and hazardous natural calamities all over the world. Information about the magnitude of peak streamflow and flood frequency with specified recurrence intervals is necessary to safely and economically design structures that are in, or near streams. The present study is carried out with a view to understand the effects of changing historical peak flows and flood-frequency computations for streams in Netravathi river basin at Bantwal gauging station, Karnataka, India. To accomplish this objective, 39-year records of annual stream flows were tested for historical flood-frequency analyses. The magnitude of annual peak-flow changes over time was computed using the Sen’s slope and Mann–Kendall Test. Peak flows with 50, 20, and 1% exceedance probability (2, 5 and 100-year recurrence interval, respectively) were computed for a stream gauge Bantwal in Netravathi river basin and found out 3933, 5238 and 8804 m3/s, respectively. Sen’s slope from showed the decreasing trend of peak flow with the magnitude of −38.355 corresponding to Mann–Kendall Test.
Arega Mulu, T. M. Fasnamol, G. S. Dwarakish
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Semi-Arid Region of Chittorgarh, India
Abstract
Climate change is considered as a substantial anthropogenic global environment threat. This paper presents a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water resources of the Chittorgarh district, Rajasthan (India). Various vulnerability indicators have been considered as the assessment criteria which deal mainly with vulnerability aspects of water availability, climatic conditions, the current status of agriculture/irrigation area, sensitivity, water governance and coping capacity. These factors are finally integrated to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the selected region. An outranking method is applied to obtain a temporal ranking of the alternatives, i.e. year-wise performance of the region. To increase the reliability of results, verification is performed using two multi-criteria approaches, namely analytical hierarchy process and social choice methods by taking into consideration of above assessment criteria. A future trend of vulnerability aspects has also been derived using various prediction techniques.
Ajit Pratap Singh, Parnika Shrivastava, A. K. Vidyarthi
Water Availability Under Changing Climate Scenario in Ur River Basin
Abstract
The Bundelkhand region in Central India is facing several environmental issues since the last decade including recurrent droughts, dominant land use changes due to many influencing factors including over exploitation of the natural resources and its degradation, climatic variability and decreased agricultural productivity. The agriculture of the region is mostly rain-fed which has now become a non-lucrative livelihood option for the local population due to the vagaries of the climate and its variability. The threat of climate change which now seems to be real is likely to aggravate the already precarious scenario, which therefore calls for a detailed investigation into the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the region. The Ur river basin has been selected as a pilot basin in Bundelkhand for the development of a decision support system (DSS) integrating climate change, hydrology and livelihood. An attempt has been made to study the impact of climate change by forcing hypothetical climate scenarios on a conceptual water balance model setup for the watershed. The analysis reveals that a 10% reduction in precipitation results in more than 40% reduction in surface runoff whereas a 1 °C increase in temperature results in 6% reduction in surface runoff. A 1 °C rise in temperature coupled with a 10% reduction in rainfall leads to a further 50% reduction in surface runoff whereas a 2 °C rise in temperature coupled with a 10% reduction in rainfall leads to reduction in surface runoff by 59%. This analysis is being used in the development of a DSS for making effective policy recommendations to assist the decision makers and stakeholders in selecting appropriate water management practices on a sustainable basis.
T. Thomas, S. Goyal, V. C. Goyal, R. V. Kale
Water Sustainability Assessment Under Climatic Uncertainty—A Case Study of Chhattisgarh (India)
Abstract
Water sustainability and vulnerability in terms of economic, social, and environmental terms is a holistic concept that affects the society at large. Assessing water sustainability is a decision-making problem that involves multiple stakeholders and perspectives. Precipitation is one of the key parameters in water resources sustainability. In the present case study, techniques based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been advocated for assessment of drought and non-drought conditions at regional level. These conditions are subcategorized into drought, near normal, and wet conditions, whereas near normal and wet conditions are considered as non-drought events. On the basis of long-term rainfall time series, the performance parameters such as reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and relative vulnerability are assessed and utilized for quantification of district wise water sustainability index (WSI). Finally, an overall WSI is estimated at the regional level using the distance-based approach on the basis of most pessimistic, most optimistic, and neutral approach. The proposed methodology is illustrated with the help of a real time case study for the state of Chhattisgarh in India. Further, in order to study the impact of climate change on drought conditions, two possible scenarios, i.e., HadCM3 A2 and B2 are considered to generate the future downscaled rainfall series. On the basis of the generated rainfall series and by using the proposed methodology, WSI for all the districts of the Chhattisgarh state has been assessed.
Surendra Kumar Chandniha, M. L. Kansal

Low Flow and Drought

Frontmatter
Coupling of Tennant Concept with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the Prediction of Environmental Flow Condition from Rainfall in Upper Narmada Basin
Abstract
In this study, an effort has been made to describe the environmental flow condition of a watershed using standardized precipitation index (SPI), a drought index based on the precipitation. Mohegaon, Manot, Hridaynagar, and Sher are the four watersheds of upper Narmada Basin that have been taken for the analysis. The purpose of this study is to derive relationship between environmental flow condition and the corresponding estimates of standardized precipitation index which is used as measure of drought conditions. It is expected that these relationship will be useful in determining environmental flow conditions in ungauged sub-basins using rainfall data only. The study revealed an excellent relationship between SPI and percentage of average annual flow as the value of coefficient of determination are greater than 0.75. The analysis indicates that for each of the four watersheds, the percentage of average annual flow increases with the increase in the value of SPI. It can be concluded that the relationships presented in this paper will be useful for estimating the EF condition for ungauged watersheds.
Kumar Amrit, S. K. Mishra, R. P. Pandey
Assessment of Drought in Balangir District of Odisha, India Using Drought Indices
Abstract
Droughts are normally triggered due to lack of rainfall and prolonged droughts have a multiplying effect and mount tremendous stress on natural resources leading to scarcity of water, food, and fodder. Balangir district is a chronically drought-prone area. Therefore this study was carried out to determine drought indices, drought index (DI), moisture indicator (MI), hydrothermal coefficient (HTC), and standardized precipitation index (SPI) to have a preliminary idea to forecast the possibility of occurrence of droughts for the 14 blocks of the district by treating each block as a unit. The drought indices were developed by utilizing historical rainfall data and temperature data during 1961–2007. Marginal droughts return period varies from 2–4 years, 4–16 years for moderate droughts and 24–48 years in case of severe droughts for all the blocks of Balangir district. Deogaon, Loisinga, and Titlagarh are chronically drought-prone areas; therefore these blocks need urgent attention from drought point of view. Balangir, Loisinga, Patnagarh, Puintala, Tentulikhunti, and Titlagarh blocks faced extreme agricultural drought conditions as per 3 months’ SPI value. Extreme hydrological drought conditions faced by Belpara, Balangir, Loisinga, Patnagarh, Puintala, and Tentulikhunti blocks according to 12 months’ SPI value. Agalpur, Bongomunda, Deogaon, Khaprakhol, Muribahal, Saintala, and Tureikela blocks did not experience any extreme dry events based on 3, 6, and 12 months’ SPI value. The analysis of these drought indices led to several useful and practicable inferences for better understanding the drought attributes of the study area. For this reason, this study will help in planning drought preparedness and its mitigation in a realistic and appropriate manner.
A. Sudarsan Rao, Jyotiprakash Padhi, Bitanjaya Das
Impact of HFC Fire Extinguishing Clean Agents on Climate Change and Its System Design Requirements for Fire Hazards in India—A Brief Study
Abstract
This paper discusses the impact on climate change of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in fire suppression applications. Alternatives and substitutes for HFCs, perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) have recently been extensively evaluated. NFPA 2001 defines a clean fire extinguishing agent as an electrically non-conducting, volatile, or gaseous fire suppressant that does not leave a residue upon evaporation. A clean agent must have no known effect on the ozone layer and also, no effect on any human survival within an enclosure protected by a clean agent, and in normally occupied areas must be used in a concentration that is less than “no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL)”. NOAEL is a measure of clean agent toxicity to humans under test conditions. The HFCs that are projected for large volume use have global warming potentials (GWPs) lower than the replacing ODSs. GWPs of HFCs replacing ODSs ranges from 120 to 12,000 as per the year 2000 data of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). HFC-23 with a GWP of 12,000 is used as a replacement for ODSs to a very limited extent. However, there are relatively large emissions of HFC-23 from the HCFC-22 manufacturing process. However, the majority of HFCs have GWPs much lower than that of HFC-23. NFPA 2001 standard demonstrates the fact that the GWP value considered by itself does not provide an indication of the impact of fire extinguishing clean agent on climate change. Further, the paper briefly describes the clean agent fire extinguishing system design considerations to extinguish fires either by flame extinguishment or by inerting in accordance with the changing characteristics of fire hazard scenarios in building and industrial occupancies. An important finding of this brief study is that the value of 0.4858 kg/m3 is a total flooding factor for HFC-227ea fire extinguishing agent representing the quantity of halocarbon clean agent required to achieve a selected design fire extinguishing concentration of 6% at a specified ambient temperature of 21 °C. It is further important to understand that the impact of a fire extinguishing clean agent on climate change is a function of both the GWP of the gas and the amount of gas emitted. For example, carbon dioxide has one of the lowest GWP values of all greenhouse gas emissions (GWP = 1), yet emissions of CO2 account for approximately 85% of the impact of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The characteristics of fire hazard scenarios with respect to anticipated fires have been continuously changing in India due to emerging trends in the up gradation/modern furnishing and interior design considerations/requirements in almost all the urban, semi-urban, and rural occupancies. The data from IPCC and Asia Pacific Fire Magazine, October 25, 2011 showed that if nothing changes, the HFC emissions are likely to be equivalent to between 9 and 19% of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which indicates that the impact of HFC fire extinguishing clean agents on climate change is minuscule. As a result, HFCs are expected to remain viable, sustainable, and environmentally acceptable replacements for Halon 1301, which was phased out due to ozone depletion potential problems under Montreal and other protocols.
R. S. Chimote
Metadaten
Titel
Climate Change Impacts
herausgegeben von
Prof. Dr. Vijay P Singh
Prof. Dr. Shalini Yadav
Prof. Dr. Ram Narayan Yadava
Copyright-Jahr
2018
Verlag
Springer Singapore
Electronic ISBN
978-981-10-5714-4
Print ISBN
978-981-10-5713-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5714-4